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FXUS65 KPSR 032357 AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 457 PM MST Sun Dec 3 2023

UPDATE
00Z Updated Aviation Discussion.

SYNOPSIS
A strong ridge of high pressure will build over the region during the first part of this week leading to a steady warming trend. By Tuesday, afternoon high temperatures across the lower deserts will top out in the mid to upper 70s to possibly even around 80 degrees.
Similar temperatures are anticipated on Wednesday. Dry conditions and above normal temperatures will continue through Friday, but a passing weather system will result in temperatures cooling back to near normal next weekend.

DISCUSSION
Latest visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies and tranquil weather across the entire Desert Southwest. 500 mb analysis reveals a ridge of high pressure centered off the west coast of the Baja del Norte and a broad trough over the eastern CONUS. Flow aloft remains northwesterly between both of these features, advecting cool and dry air into our region. We began this mornings with chilly temperatures across the lower deserts and are on track to see highs reaching the mid to upper 60s again this afternoon. High clouds will be on the increase late tonight as a plume of subtropical moisture rides over top of the ridge into AZ. These clouds will allow for slightly warmer low temperatures tonight, especially across western portions of the region. Overall low temperatures will range from the low to mid 40s in most desert locations.

Heading into Monday, ridging aloft will become more amplified over the western U.S., promoting rising heights over the Desert Southwest. Despite increasing 500 mb heights, a weak disturbance in northwesterly flow will bring abundant mid-high clouds through the region tomorrow afternoon. This will help to counteract the maximum warming potential as highs top out near normal in the upper 60s to lower 70s. The 500 mb ridge will continue to build into the middle of this week. Extrapolating 850 mb temperatures of 14-16C on Tuesday and 14-17C on Wednesday will result in sfc temperatures in the mid to upper 70s with a few 80 degree readings possible in the Phoenix Metro. Highs in the 80s are very uncommon this time of year and we will be very close to reaching the record of 82 degrees Tuesday and 83 degrees Wednesday in Phoenix.
Overnight low temperatures will also moderate to above normal beginning Tuesday morning with lows mainly in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Latest mean ensemble and cluster analysis continue to show a longwave trough developing over the Intermountain West late this week and diving southward, however the strength of the ridge over the eastern Pacific looks to keep this trough from deepening far enough south to impact our region. For the most part all we will see out of this system is slightly cooler temperatures on Friday and Saturday as a weak cold front sweeps through the area. NBM precipitation chances have decreased significantly especially across the higher terrain where PoPs are now less than 10%. Dry conditions and near normal temperatures look to persist through Sunday and into the following week.

AVIATION
Updated at 2357Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: No aviation weather concerns are anticipated through the TAF period under FEW-SCT high cirrus. Winds will remain very light (aob 5 kts sustained) and continue to follow diurnal tendencies.
The typical E switch at KPHX will take hold as early as 04Z, but confidence is high that calm to very light and VRB winds will be common before the switch. Intermittent periods of calm to very light and variable winds are possible through the next 30 hours at all terminals. By mid morning tomorrow, high clouds aoa 20 kft are expected to become BKN and persist through the end of the TAF period.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No aviation weather concerns are anticipated through the TAF period under SCT to at times BKN high cirrus. Winds will remain very light (aob 5 kts sustained), and directions will generally favor W to NW at KIPL and NW to N at KBLH.

FIRE WEATHER
High pressure will spread over the region early this week resulting in a warming trend and above normal temperatures starting Monday. Drier air will continue to filter in from the west pushing humidities lower as MinRHs drop to 20-25% starting Monday. Very light winds will continue over the next few days while somewhat following typical diurnal pattern. The warm and dry conditions are expected to persist through at least next Thursday or Friday.

PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...None.
CA...None.

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