Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Santa Ana, CA

DISCUSSION
FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES...

Visible satellite at 1 PM was showing patchy low clouds lingering along the coast. Low clouds and fog will move back inland this evening, but are not expected to make it past the western valleys tonight. Low clouds are expected to remain persistent each night and morning for the coast into early next week, with high resolution model guidance indicating better chances of widespread clearing in the afternoons (yes, even for the beaches) tomorrow and Monday. The marine layer is expected to deepen for the middle to end of next week as a more amplified trough of low pressure approaches the West Coast.

Building high pressure from the south will bring an increase in high temperatures, which will peak on Sunday. On Sunday, high temperatures will be around 5 degrees above average near the coast and 10 degrees above average for inland locations. The High Desert is likely (80-100% chance) to see high temperatures of 100 degrees or more by Sunday, while the lower deserts have similar chances of 110 degrees or more. HeatRisk in the inland valleys, mountain foothills, and deserts will be moderate, with locally high HeatRisk in the low deserts on Sunday. NBM chance for the low desert to exceed 115 degrees on Sunday is 15 percent or less. West of the mountains, there is a 50 to 80 percent chance parts of the Inland Empire will exceed 100 degrees and up to a 20 percent chance parts of eastern San Diego County valleys will exceed 100 degrees Sunday.
Portions of inland Orange County (east of Interstate 5) have a 30 to 50 percent chance of temperatures exceeding 90 degrees.

A low pressure system moving inland through California early in the week will strengthen onshore flow for Monday and Tuesday. This will result in a slight increase in westerly winds over the mountains and into the deserts. The weak low will also have minor impacts on lowering high temperatures. Temperatures Monday are expected to be a degree or two cooler than Sunday. Further cooling is expected into Tuesday, with high temperatures around 5 degrees above average.
Wednesday may see a few degrees of warming away from the coast as the ridge rebounds in the wake of the passing trough. Any increase in temperatures will be short lived as another upper level trough begins to deepen and move west across the Pacific Northwest for the end of the week. While there are some differences in the timing of the progression of this trough, the general consensus is for cooling the remainder of the week, with these differences determining just how much cooling will occur.

AVIATION
142015Z
Coast/Valleys
Low clouds have eroded out of the majority of land areas, with local areas of BKN along the immediate coast. Low clouds redevelop and push back ashore after 02Z Sunday.
Bases will likely be lower, closer to 600-1000 ft MSL with about 10- 15 miles of inland extent. Vis reductions of 3-6 SM along the coast and 0-3 SM for higher coastal terrain and western valleys. Clouds clear again 16-18Z Sun.

Otherwise...SCT-BKN high clouds and unrestricted VIS prevails through Sunday morning.

MARINE
No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Thursday.

BEACHES
A 3 foot southerly (190 degrees) swell at 19 seconds will lead to elevated surf of 3 to 6 feet, primarily for Orange County and northern San Diego County beaches. A Beach Hazard Statement has been issued through late Sunday evening. The swell's period gradually shortens to 17 seconds by Sunday, and the overall swell and surf heights will wane late Sunday into Monday.

SKYWARN
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions.



SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Sunday evening for Orange County Coastal Areas.

PZ...None.