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PZZ655 Inner Waters From Point Mugu To San Mateo Pt. Ca Including Santa Catalina And Anacapa Islands- 823 Pm Pst Mon Nov 27 2023
Tonight..NW winds 5 to 10 kt in the evening, becoming ne 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 3 ft at 15 seconds and S 2 ft at 14 seconds.
Tue..NE winds 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 3 ft at 14 seconds and S 2 ft at 16 seconds.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 3 ft at 13 seconds and S 2 ft at 16 seconds.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 3 ft at 12 seconds and S 2 ft at 16 seconds. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers.
Wed night..W winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the evening, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 12 seconds. A chance of showers.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 12 seconds. S swell 2 ft in the afternoon. A chance of showers.
Thu night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Combined seas 3 to 5 ft dominant period 11 seconds. A chance of showers.
Fri..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Combined seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 4 to 5 ft.

PZZ600 823 Pm Pst Mon Nov 27 2023
synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park...at 03z or 7 pm pst, a 1003 mb closed low was centered 500 nm W of eureka and a 1034 mb high was over northern utah. A weak trough was located along the sw california coast. Gusty ne winds will affect portions of the coastal waters through Tuesday.

FXUS66 KSGX 280500 AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 900 PM PST Mon Nov 27 2023

SYNOPSIS
One last day of weak offshore winds and seasonal temperatures is expected on Tuesday. A low pressure system will lead to cooler temperatures, increasing onshore flow and scattered showers Wednesday through Friday. Warmer and drier conditions are expected this weekend and early next week.

DISCUSSION
FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES...

Update...

The 00z Miramar sounding showed weakly offshore winds between 900 mb and 750 mb and a moist layer in the upper levels, responsible for the thick high cloud cover over much of Southern California this evening. Pockets of breezy offshore winds are occurring below passes, but these winds will diminish overnight. Very similar overnight conditions are expected from last night and little change in high temperature is expected on Tuesday.

An amplified ridge of high pressure centered over the coast of British Columbia will break down and progress eastward on Tuesday, eventually being replaced by a strengthening upper level low approaching the central California coastline. Winds finally turn back onshore Tuesday night into Wednesday, and the return of marine layer clouds will also occur. Increasing chances for rain and much cooler temperatures will round out the work week.

Previous Discussion (Issued 1242 PM PST Mon Nov 27 2023)...

High clouds continue to stream into Southern California from the west this afternoon. Winds have started to decrease this afternoon, with peak gusts around 30 mph through the passes, and will continue to decrease this afternoon and evening. The flow will remain weakly offshore through Tuesday morning, then transition to onshore flow Tuesday afternoon.

The large area of high pressure that has been prevalent over the West for the past few days will slowly drift east on Tuesday as a Pacific low pressure system approaches the California coast. As this low moves closer to California, it will weaken the surface high over the Great Basin, which will weaken the offshore pressure gradient and Santa Ana winds through Tuesday. The flow will turn onshore Tuesday afternoon, allowing the sea breeze and higher humidity to push inland.

The Pacific low will gradually move inland into central California starting on Wednesday, weakening as it slides southeast along the coast. This system looks to be pretty moisture starved, with rather unimpressive PWAT values in the ensemble solutions. Almost all the ensembles are wet though, so expect some precipitation later on Wednesday into Thursday, but it won't be much. The storm is on track to bring the highest precipitation totals (and by highest totals we mean maybe 0.20 inch) to southern San Diego County, with very little, if any, for areas north of San Diego County Wednesday evening into Thursday.

This wave will race east on Thursday, with another system on it's heels for later Thursday into Friday. This looks to be another weak system with limited moisture, but it appears to take a more inside track instead of a southern track, so northern areas could see a bit more precipitation out of this system than the previous one. This would leverage the mountains a bit more for upslope flow and enhanced precipitation amounts, so there could be a few heavier spots of accumulation in the mountains on Friday.

Snow levels will be above 6000 feet Wednesday and Thursday, then drop to around 5500 feet on Friday. Some snow accumulation will be possible on Friday in the mountains, but it's not looking like much at this time.

So overall after Tuesday, expect cooler conditions, more cloud cover, stronger onshore winds, and periods of showers. The precipitation won't amount to much, but we will take anything we can get during the typical peak of our fire season.

Ensembles are pretty set on a ridge of high pressure building in after the low departs to the east this weekend. This will bring us dry and warmer conditions through at least the first half of next week.

AVIATION
280400Z...SCT-BKN250 tonight and Tuesday with no vis restrictions.
Potential for low clouds with bases near 1000 FT MSL increases Wednesday morning. Earliest possible development time would be between 06-12z Wed, though confidence in this specific window is rather low. Low cloud development, along with potential for some scattered SHRA, looks more likely after 12z Wed.

MARINE
Tonight through Thursday: No hazardous marine weather conditions.
Friday: Northwest wind gusts 20-25 kt over the outer waters.

SKYWARN
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions.



SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...None.
PZ...None.

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Los Patos (highway bridge)
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Tue -- 03:40 AM PST     1.37 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:36 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:07 AM PST     Moonset
Tue -- 09:47 AM PST     5.46 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:44 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:24 PM PST     -0.57 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:46 PM PST     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:54 PM PST     3.06 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Los Patos (highway bridge), California, Tide feet

Santa Ana River entrance (inside)
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Tue -- 04:15 AM PST     0.46 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:35 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:06 AM PST     Moonset
Tue -- 09:10 AM PST     3.55 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:43 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:46 PM PST     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:59 PM PST     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:17 PM PST     1.99 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Santa Ana River entrance (inside), California, Tide feet

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Santa Ana Mtns, CA,