Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Forestbrook, SC

UPDATE
Have become more optimistic in favor of improving conditions late this evening thru the overnight in relation to POPs and cloud coverage. This due to latest obs, sat imagery and radar trends. However, have kept POPS in the low chance for the immediate coast during the pre-dawn hrs into daylight Sun.
Muggy atm and saw no need for major changes in temps and dewpoints.

649pm Update...
Did some re-aligning of POPs this evening thru daytime morning Sun. This based on latest KLTX and surrounding radar trends for this evening and high res guidance for the overnight into daytime Sun morning. Embedded upper perturbation should help with convection development closer to the coast and local waters during the predawn Sun hrs into Sun daytime morning.
Whereas, inland have adjusted POPs to slight or none at all especially along and west of the I-95 corridor later this evening thru the overnight.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
It appears that most of the shower/tstm activity will remain east of I-95 through the remainder of the afternoon and early evening, mainly associated with some weak energy moving up the coast in the SW flow aloft. That activity should tend to dissipate after sunset, although given the unstable airmass in place, can't rule out more convection late tonight, particularly the eastern half of the CWA, as additional perturbations make their way overhead. Main impacts will be brief, heavy downpours with ponding of water. Showers and thunderstorms will begin to blossom again by late morning Sunday, and there should be more coverage inland than we are seeing so far today, as some shortwave energy rotates out of northern GA and upstate SC. Lows tonight low-mid 70s with highs Sunday reaching upper 80s to near 90, except mid 80s at the beaches.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
The mid-level pattern has not changed from earlier in the week.
Anticyclonic flow around the high-pressure ridge brings in deep tropical moisture with precipitable water of around 2 inches throughout the period. To the north, the shortwave trough over Kentucky on Sunday morning will have weakened and moved off the Mid-Atlantic coast by Monday night, and a second shortwave trough will move into Indiana and Western Kentucky.

At the surface, a stationary front is expected to be located from extreme Western Virginia to Hatteras, and then by Monday night, this front will push northward into the Delmarva.
Instabilities are expected to be around 1000-1500 J/kg along the coast and just offshore during the night. On Monday afternoon, the CAPE values will reach 2000-2500 J/Kg. Therefore, there is a good chance of showers and thunderstorms each night along the immediate coast, and during the day on Monday, showers and thunderstorms are likely expected again.

Mid-70s temperatures are expected each night, with highs of around 90 on Monday.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
At 500 mb, the high-pressure ridge continues from Bermuda to the Florida Peninsula. A weakening trough will pass just to the north of the area on Tuesday, and a second trough over the upper plains on Wednesday will deepen and move to the east coast late Thursday into Friday. High pressure will be established at the surface but will give way to a frontal boundary crossing the area on Friday and moving south of the forecast area on Tuesday.
There is a good chance of thunderstorms again on Tuesday with some heavy downpours, and less coverage of showers and thunderstorms is expected Wednesday into Saturday.

With high temperatures in the lower to middle 90s each afternoon and dew points in the 73 to 75-degree range, heat indices will rise into the lower 100s, especially Tuesday through Thursday.

AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Latest HRRR and WRF guidance suggest convective activity to wane after 00Z, leaving a mid and upper deck of clouds moving across the terminals overnight. Winds inland terminals may drop to 4 kt or less from the SW overnight. With this possibility have placed the possibility of MVFR ground fog across LBT but not so much for FLO at this time. The coastal terminal winds should stay AOA 5 kt keeping widespread ground fog at bay for the most part. Otherwise, weak impulse aloft may instigate convection around Cape Fear prior to daybreak Sun, have included MYR/CRE in this possibility but confidence remains low. The high res guidance does indicate convection to increase in coverage by mid-aftn inland and at the coast, however went hier in the coverage they dictate. By and after 23Z, much of the activity should wane, with majority of activity well NW thru N of the FA.

Extended Outlook...Brief flight restrictions due to intermittent/periodic showers and thunderstorms are possible through Thursday.

MARINE
Through Sunday, southwest flow on the order of 15-20 kt will continue through Sunday between high pressure off the Carolina coast and a trough of low pressure well inland. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through early this evening, then should die off. Redevelopment is possible late tonight and through the day Sunday. Seas will be composed of a 8-9 sec southeast swell around 2 ft, along with a 5 sec southerly wind wave around 3-4 ft.

Sunday night through Friday, the Bermuda high-pressure axis will remain south of the coastal waters. This pressure pattern will provide for southwest winds of 15 to 20 knots, with a slight increase to around 20 knots late Thursday into Friday as a cold front approaches the waters. Seas are expected to remain in the 3 to 4-foot range, with 4 to 5 feet possible late Thursday.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected over the waters daily, with more widespread coverage Sunday night through Tuesday.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.