Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Stanton, CA

.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...24/902 AM.

***UPDATE***

A rare deep marine layer in January with cloud tops approaching 5000 feet generated some drizzle from Santa Barbara to LA. Some areas even had light measurable rain including Redondo Beach and parts of the San Fernando Valley.

However, the clouds are rapidly eroding as another offshore flow episode develops today. High res models indicate northeast winds should develop before noon across the LA Mountains and interior LA/Ventura valleys, then eventually to the Ventura County coast and adjacent coastal waters tonight, including the Channel Islands. Offshore gradients are expected to reach 4-5mb by Sunday morning and may need some low end wind advisories by tonight, though wind support aloft is pretty weak.

Moderate offshore flow is expected to be here through at least Tuesday, though upper support will weaken each day so the strongest winds (and only real chance for advisories) will be tonight into Sunday morning.

***From Previous Discussion***

A weak inside slider is passing down the CA/NV state line. The weak lift from this trof has deepened the marine layer to over 3000 ft. This combined with onshore flow and a weak eddy has brought low clouds to all of the csts and vlys. In addition the low clouds have driven deep into the mtn passes and are even over the Grapevine area of I-5. Low clouds also cover most of the SLO and SBA counties interior. Offshore trends and subsidence behind the trof should bring decent clearing in the afternoon although some areas may not clear until mid afternoon. The foothill areas may see some drizzle as well due to the extra lift provided by the orographics. Cool air assoc with the trof will move into the interior where max temps will fall by about 8 degrees. The rest of the area should see little change, although the Central Coast may see some warming if the low clouds clear out by noon.

As is almost always the case a Santa Ana wind event will develop in the wake of the inside slider passage. The latest forecast shows a little stronger offshore push (3 to 4 mb) and some upper support so low end advisory gusts are possible. The offshore flow should keep the low clouds away and it will be a mostly sunny day.
Max temps will react accordingly moving up 3 to 5 degrees compared today. Even with the warming max temps will come in 1 or 2 degrees below normal.

Dry SW flow will set up over the area on Monday. The offshore flow will weaken to about 1 mb. This will likely not be enough to keep the coastal low clouds at bay, especially over srn LA county and western SBA county. Skies, otherwise, will be partly cloudy due to some mid level clouds moving in overhead. Max temps will rise another 1 or 2 degrees and this will bring most area to or a degree above normal.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...24/301 AM.

A ridge will be over the state on Tuesday with 574 dam hgts. There will also be 2 to 4 mb of offshore flow which will produce a light Santa Ana. At this time it does not look like there will be any advisory level winds. There will be a few degrees of warming and most cst/vly temps will end up in the upper 60s to lower 70s, which is about 3 degrees over normal.

Low confidence remains for the rest of the xtnd forecast as the mdls are struggling to resolve some energy coming in from the NW.
The EC is much more energetic and brings a full on cut off low to the west of the area. Most of the rest of the solutions just have trofs which are further to the north. There are enough ensemble members from the more dynamic EC to bring a slight chc of light rain in for the Central Coast during the day. The more likely scenario is just for a deep marine layer with plenty of morning clouds covering the csts/vlys and some mid and high level clouds in the afternoon. Cooler temps are likely no matter what mdl verifies.

Still not the best of mdl agreement for the Thu/Fri time period but the most likely outcome appears to be weak ridging with weak offshore flow bringing mostly clear skies and a warming trend.

Both the AI-GFS and AI-EC are dry through the 1st week of Feb, save for the small chance of light rain next Wednesday.

AVIATION
24/1834Z.

At 1730Z at KLAX, the marine layer was about 4500 feet deep. The top of the inversion was at around 5700 ft with a temperature of 7 C.

Good confidence in desert TAFs and moderate confidence in the rest. Clearing times for cst/vly TAFs may be up to 2 hours later than fcst.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. No significant east wind component is expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF.

MARINE
24/906 AM.

For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. Today through Wednesday, winds and seas are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels. However, for PZZ676 there is about a 40% chance of gusts between 20-30 kts on Sunday morning as easterly winds push off the coast and across the zone. By Thursday the northern outer waters of PZZ645 could begin to see 10' seas but confidence in the overall wind pattern driving that is low.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in current forecast with winds and seas expected to remain below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. From Ventura to Santa Monica, there is about a 40% chance of SCA-level northeast winds Sunday morning, but the seas will remain around 5'. Otherwise, winds and seas will remain below SCA levels through Wednesday.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.