Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Torrance, CA

.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...29/909 AM.

Some low clouds and patchy dense fog remain across the coastal areas this morning, but clouds are starting to clear as the marine inversion lifts out. Mainly high clouds will stream over the area today as high-level moisture flows over the top of shortwave ridge. A return of low clouds and fog is expected for most coastal areas and some valley areas tonight and into Sunday as tick up of onshore flow should allow for a bit more coverage tonight. A cooling trend will likely continue into Sunday as broader troughing will replace the shortwave ridge.

***From Previous Discussion***

A weak inside slider will move over the area Sunday night and set the stage for a Santa Ana wind event Monday. There should be about 5 mb offshore flow from the east with about 3 from the north. There is some upper support at 850mb and a little cold air advection as well. These ingredients will combine to bring a moderate Santa Ana with advisory level gusts (40-50 mph) likely through the Santa Ana Wind Corridor in the morning. The cool air advection will not allow for a big warm up - only 2 to 4 degrees across the csts/vlys. The interior will see cooling as the offshore flow brings in colder air from the N and E. The Antelope Vly will see the most cooling: 5 to 10 degrees. Skies should be mostly sunny except for the Long Beach area, western SBA county and the Paso Robles area where the offshore flow will be too weak to prevent low cloud formation.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...29/1231 AM.

Dry NW flow sets up on Tuesday. The offshore flow in the morning will be much weaker and by afternoon there will be an onshore push to the east. There will likely be some non advisory level NE winds in the morning. The day will start off sunny but by he afternoon it will be partly clouds as some high clouds stream in. A typical post Santa Ana day as far as temps go with cooling at the csts/vlys due to weaker offshore flow and warming across the interior as the cool air advection shuts off.

Still not much mdl agreement for the Wed/Thu time period. An impulse will slide out of Canada and will either turn into a fairly sharp inside slider that is a little more westward than usual (GFS) or cool cut off low that retrogrades over SBA county.
Looking at all of the ensembles about 25 percent of them favor rain with the best chc over LA county. There is about a 50 percent chc that some rain will fall over the entire 2 day period.
Rainfall amounts (if any) will not amount to much likely under a quarter inch. Other solutions just bring some winds to the area.
Definitely cooler Wednesday. Most ensembles favor warming Thursday but if the EC verifies the max temps will not change much.

Friday should be dry. It looks like another Santa Ana will develop but it will be at worst a moderate one. Max temps should warm with the offshore flow and should be close to normals.

AVIATION
29/1707Z.

At 1700Z at KLAX, the marine layer was around 600 feet deep.
The top of the inversion was 1800 feet with a temperature of 16 degrees Celsius.

For 18Z TAF package, moderate to high confidence in forecasts.
High confidence in VFR conditions for KBUR, KVNY, KWJF and KPMD.
For coastal sites, moderate confidence in current forecasts due to uncertainties with the behavior of the marine layer. Timing of flight category changes could be +/- 4 hours of current forecast with flight categories off by 1 category.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. Timing of flight category changes could be +/- 4 hours of current forecasts. Also, there is a 40% chance of LIFR conditions 08Z-14Z. No significant easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...High confidence in 18Z TAF.

MARINE
29/907 AM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through tonight, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels. For Sunday, there is a 40-50% chance of SCA level winds, mainly across PZZ670/673. For Monday through Wednesday, there is a 30-40% chance of a combination of SCA level winds and seas.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in current forecast. Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels through Wednesday.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, high confidence in current forecast. Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels through Wednesday.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.