Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bald Head Island, NC

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through early evening due to sea breeze and outflow boundary interactions, with meager moisture profiles and lack of upr-level support keeping the coverage low. Similar scenario tonight as last night with patchy fog anticipated mainly inland, esp. for areas that received rain today. Temps tonight close to climatological norms for late June...lows in the low/mid 70s. Another sea breeze expected Sunday aftn but with overall conditions less favorable for rain than today...held off on including isolated showers and storms but can't rule out any in a few spots (10% PoPs). Temps a bit warmer than those of today with highs reaching the mid 90s over inland areas and heat indices maxing out around 100 degrees - shy of Heat Advisory criteria.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Heat will be coming in force through early next week as the mid to upper ridge strengthens over the Carolinas. The center of the ridge will drop south with H5 height rises up to 597 to 599 dam. At the surface, fairly weak high pressure will exist over the region with light and variable winds. Expect Piedmont trough and sea breeze to remain focal points for convergence, but can't imagine we will see more than flat cu getting suppressed by plenty of dry air and subsidence aloft. Pops continue to be less than mentionable with slim to no chance of a pop up shower.

Overnight temps in the 70s will not provide much relief from the high heat during the day with increasing heat risk. The high heat with daytime highs well into the 90s will combine with high humidity to produce heat index values mainly between 101-104 degrees on Monday. May see a portion of the area reach 105 leading to a Heat Advisory, but will have to evaluate to see if dewpoint temps run high enough.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
High heat and humidity will continue. With the center of the ridge overhead Tues and Wed, expect heat to peak then and no heat. Looks like we should reach into Heat Advisory thresholds, but with the NBM high bias of dewpoints, there will be some fine tuning as we get closer in time. Either way, the persistent heat with limited relief at night will increase the level of heat affects and the overall impact. The strong ridge aloft will keep convection out of the forecast Tues through early Thurs.

The mid to upper ridge will slowly weaken while remaining almost directly overhead of the Carolinas mid to late week. The models have consistently shown a remnant H5 low pushing in from the east and this may act to weaken it further toward the weekend.
At the same time, a shortwave riding over the ridge to the north will suppress the ridge to the south and may let northern stream system produce enough convection upstream to possibly move into the area or combine with Piedmont trough to bring chc of pcp back in the forecast Thurs onward. Still not expecting it to be too widespread across the Carolinas.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR to commence at all 00Z terminals with VCSH/VCTS at LBT ending at 02Z. This based on latest 88D trends. Latest HRRR guidance indicates convection should be nonexistent by mid to late evening. There-after, MVFR/IFR ceilings and/or vsby will manifest itself across LBT and FLO but just periodic at ILM.
MYR and CRE will lie on the outskirts of this low ceiling canopy but may observe intermittent fog. Between 08Z and 12Z are highlighted as the best time to observe MVFR/IFR as observed by the latest GFSLAMP Guidance. Improvements should be quick by 13Z, with VFR dominating there- after. Still may observe isolated convection along the sea breeze as it develops by the late morning and pushes inland during the aftn/evening. Did not include convection in any of the terminals due to it's "hit and miss" nature as strengthening high pressure aloft acts a lid.
Winds SW-NW aob 4 kt, going calm at times predawn Sun hrs. Winds become 120-170 10 kt or less after the sea breeze passage Sun aftn/evening at the coastal terminals, around 7 kt inland terminals after 22Z.

Extended Outlook...Predominantly VFR and dry weather through mid week as strong high pressure aloft puts a lid on most convective development.

MARINE
Through Sunday...Very benign marine conditions continue for the remainder of the weekend. Winds aob 10 kt, with the only uptick being nearshore Sunday midday/aftn with the seabreeze. Seas steady at 1-2 ft, mainly consisting of a SE 7-8 second swell.

Sunday night through Thursday...
The flow will be dominated by sea/land breeze near shore most days as strong ridge keeps shwrs/tstms at bay at least through Thurs. The prevailing winds will remain very light with a return flow around high pressure centered to our south. This will maintain a general SW to W wind flow but should be variable with sea and land breeze influences. Seas will remain less than 3 ft with a minimal longer period SE swell mixing in.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Water levels will trend upwards as we approach the new moon on Wednesday June 25th. Coastal flooding will be possible during evening high tides along the lower Cape Fear River in the vicinity of downtown Wilmington and southward through next week.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for NCZ107.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.