Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bald Head Island, NC

UPDATE
CAMs are getting a bit more aggressive in depicting convection mainly in coastal SC. Will raise POPs there slightly with the mid morning update as greater instability is forecast in the Grand Strand.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Bermuda high pressure extending into the area from the east will keep temperatures above normal today but ridging aloft should limit convection to isolated coverage. It looks today like the main focus for storms will be the sea breeze. Highs today will reach the lower to middle 90s but humidity values should remain low enough to preclude the need to a heat advisory as apparent temperatures should max out invof 100 degrees. Lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 70s.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A weak mid level trough will move across the area Thursday into Friday temporarily suppressing the Bermuda Ridge. It appears the timing for good coverage of showers and thunderstorms is almost ideal (late Thursday afternoon and evening). In realty this is probably associated with the classic pre frontal trough. Pops have been increased to high chance and even likely in some cases to reflect this trend. Another round of convection is expected Friday afternoon moreso to the east of I-95 with the dissipating boundary.
A marginal risk for severe thunderstorms resides across the area both days as well.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A more stable northwest flow will be in place initially for the extended transitioning to ridging of which the center will be across the Ohio Valley. Some residual moisture and the sea breeze warrant low chance pops along the coastal areas Saturday with a dry forecast thereafter. Don't be surprised if in reality there is more convective coverage however. Highs will be in the lower to middle 90s with overnight lows in the lower to middle 70s.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR should be the general rule at all terminals. The exception will be some transient dips in CIG/VSBY at MYR and perhaps CRE this afternoon. FM lines only needed to address diurnally driven changes in wind.

Extended Outlook...A front will produce periods of sub-VFR in shwrs/tstms late Thurs into Fri. Otherwise, brief restrictions due to widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are possible.

MARINE
Through Tonight...Expect mainly SW winds of 10 to 15 KT to increase to 15 to 20 KT and continue into tonight. Seas will run 3 to 4 FT.

Thursday through Sunday... A relatively strong southwest flow will develop Thursday ahead of the next system. Overall wind speeds have ticked up but remain in the lower end of a 20-25 knot range. This increases the chances for a brief headline but still seemingly marginal at best. For the remainder of the period while there may be a very brief few hours of offshore flow early Saturday and Sunday the overall synoptic flow will continue with a southerly component.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108.
SC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054- 056.
MARINE...None.