Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Albany, OK

NEAR TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 226 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025

Friday will be warm, breezy, and cloudy, with chances for scattered elevated showers and thunderstorms. Weak ridging will help keep storm chances low across most of our area during the day, with higher chances along our periphery and overnight; and strong capping will help keep storms elevated. The overall environment (instability advecting in from the southwest and strong deep layer shear centered on northeast Oklahoma) will be supportive of a few strong to severe storms with hail as the primary threat. Mesoscale features appear fairly clear, though weak forcing adds some uncertainty to coverage and timing.

There are two main areas to watch for higher storm chances. The first is across northern and especially northeastern Oklahoma. A 700mb wave will move across northern Oklahoma late morning to late afternoon while a 500mb wave dives into northeast Oklahoma through the afternoon, providing mid and upper support for thunderstorm development. This will also help keep temperatures cooler (mid 70s)
in northeast Oklahoma.

The second will be southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas toward evening. CAMs suggest a few storms initiating off the dryline and moving east, then quickly diminishing after sunset as they move through north Texas / southwest Oklahoma.

There is also a decent signal (PoPs of 40-70%) for a storm complex developing in Kansas overnight on the nose of a strengthening low level jet, then surging southeast through the night through northern, central, and eastern parts of the area. If this develops upscale, this would present more of a damaging wind and heavy rainfall threat.

Day

SHORT TERM
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 226 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025

Saturday will feature another round of thunderstorm chances during the afternoon and evening.

Upper level flow becomes more zonal on Saturday. Convection from the previous night is expected to leave an outflow boundary which will help serve as a focus for afternoon storms, in addition to the the arrival of a cold front (somewhere near I-40 by afternoon). Strong instability (4000-5000+ joules) and moderate deep layer shear (35 to 45 knots) will support supercells capable of very large hail and damaging wind gusts, with a low risk for tornadoes. That said, potential effects from previous convection keep confidence in these mesoscale features low.

Outside of convection, expect a strong temperature gradient due to the aforementioned cold front. Southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas will be mostly clear with temperatures in the upper 90s under the influence of a low level thermal ridge. Northern Oklahoma will be less warm (upper 70s / lower 80s) and cloudy.

Sunday afternoon through overnight continues the stormy pattern as an upper wave moves across the region. A lingering surface front will again serve as focus for storms, though the mesoscale situation becomes increasingly unclear. We'll be keeping an eye on the potential for both severe and flooding threats with this system.

Day

LONG TERM
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 226 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025

Another strong upper wave moves through Monday, allowing chances for showers and thunderstorms to continue into the day. With the previous front clearing the area, Monday should be cooler (upper 60s to upper 80s) under mostly cloudy skies. At this range, uncertainty becomes more synoptically driven, suggesting more reliance on ensemble guidance.

Midweek will remain relatively cool (70s) with reduced precipitation chances. At this point, synoptic uncertainty becomes high.

Day

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025

Low ceilings from Stratus developing across northern Texas near the Red River and on the Southern High Plains may result in LIFR to IFR conditions impacting terminals KSPS, KLAW, KCSM, and KWWR through 16Z. Otherwise all other terminals should generally remain under VFR conditions. There is a 30% probability of TSRA at two of our terminals in central Oklahoma between 16-19Z with a higher probability in northcentral Oklahoma where TEMPOS are in place at terminals KSWO & KPNC. Probabilities are too low to mention in the forecast for our remaining terminals. TSRA may return in central and northcentral Oklahoma again between 05-08Z. The storms should any develop are expected to be elevated. A surface low moving into western Texas will keep surface winds out of the southeast veering more southerly by 18Z around 10 kts gusting 15-20 kts. A low-level jet will strengthen tonight out of the south which may produce low-level wind shear by 06Z over most of our terminals.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Oklahoma City OK 84 66 84 68 / 20 50 20 40 Hobart OK 88 66 94 66 / 10 20 10 30 Wichita Falls TX 90 71 95 72 / 10 20 10 20 Gage OK 86 60 84 59 / 10 30 10 40 Ponca City OK 73 61 76 62 / 50 70 40 70 Durant OK 88 72 89 74 / 10 20 0 10

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...None.
TX...None.