Desert Center, CA Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Desert Center, CA

April 14, 2024 1:43 AM PDT (08:43 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:11 AM   Sunset 7:16 PM
Moonrise 10:45 AM   Moonset 1:11 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Desert Center, CA
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Area Discussion for - Phoenix, AZ
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FXUS65 KPSR 140817 AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 115 AM MST Sun Apr 14 2024

SYNOPSIS
A weather disturbance moving through northern Arizona and southern Utah will result in locally windy conditions and temperatures retreating closer to the seasonal normal the next couple days.
However, strong high pressure building into the region later this week will allow temperatures to warm rapidly with some lower desert communities possibly approaching close to the 100 degree mark late in the week.

DISCUSSION
A well defined negative PV anomaly continues to propagate southeast along the central California coast, however satellite imagery depicts the first signs that subtropical jet energy was influencing the circulation towards an eastward turn. As a result, the central cold core and more pronounced height falls will translate inland towards southern UT over the next 36 hours. Nevertheless, increased pressure packing along a decaying cold front crossing the coast range will support enhanced winds descending into lower elevations of Imperial County again this afternoon and evening. While not the optimal scenario for strong mountain rotors, deep mechanical transport of higher momentum air will support a brief period of advisory level winds. By Monday, the greatest combination of jet energy, midlevel height falls, and tightened pressure gradient will have shifted into New Mexico though a few stronger ridge top gusts across Gila County may be common.

Operational and ensemble members continue to consolidate on a singular solution later this week featuring mean troughing shifting into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes and dampened ridging building over the SW Conus. Trends among NAEFS membership show less support for higher amplitude riding, but rather H5 heights becoming sequestered around 582dm due to low amplitude perturbations being pulled eastward in an active subtropical jet. As a result, NBM probabilities of lower elevation communities reaching 100F this week have dropped considerably below 25%. Regardless, forecast confidence is excellent that temperatures will hover 5F-10F above normal during the latter half of the week with numerical guidance spreads narrowing significantly. This pattern of quasi-zonal, dry westerly flow should persist into the weekend yielding an extended period of widespread minor HeatRisk, but nothing terribly unusual for mid/late April.

AVIATION
Updated at 0520Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: Easterly winds will establish over the next few hours at KPHX. A similar evolution in the wind directions can be expected tomorrow to that of what we saw over the last few days; winds veer SE-SSE over the late morning hours, followed by a southerly cross runway component with sustained speeds aob 10 kts and occasional gusts into the mid teens midday, and SW winds establishing in the mid-late afternoon. Gusts are anticipated to peak in the upper teens to low 20s. Tomorrow evening, a dry cold front will pass over the Phoenix area, which could lead to westerly gusts persisting later into the evening, and confidence is moderate that winds will remain west through tomorrow night. Mostly clear skies will prevail through the period.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: The primary aviation weather concern through the TAF period will be gusty winds out of the W at IPL and SW at BLH, under mostly clear skies. Elevated winds are expected to persist through the TAF period at IPL (except for perhaps a few hours before sunrise tomorrow), and winds will calm between 07-09Z at BLH before picking back up shortly after sunrise tomorrow morning. Although LLWS criteria are unlikely to be met, times where the surface decouples sufficiently overnight could lead to 10-20 kts of shear between the surface and 2 kft AGL.
Gusts are expected to peak between 30-35 kt and occasionally up to 40 kts late afternoon into the early evening at IPL, whereas gusts will peak between 25-30 kt at BLH. During the strongest gusts, reduced visibilities from blowing dust will be possible, particularly at IPL.

FIRE WEATHER
With dry weather prevailing, near normal temperatures early this week will rapidly warm back into an above normal category during the latter half of the week. Very breezy afternoon conditions will be common through Monday, especially across western districts today and eastern district ridge tops Monday. As minimum afternoon humidity levels fall into a 10-25% range, a locally elevated fire danger will exist. With warmer temperatures later in the week, minimum humidity levels will dry further into a 10-20% range with single digits common across lower desert locations. Overnight recovery will turn poor to fair in a 20-40% range. However, lighter wind speeds will preclude a greater fire danger and provide an excellent opportunity for prescribed burning during the middle of the week.

PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...None.
CA...Wind Advisory until 6 AM PDT Monday for CAZ562.

Wind Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT this evening for CAZ563-566-567.




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