Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Desert Center, CA

KEY MESSAGES

- Chances for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue mainly this morning across southwest Arizona.

- Drier conditions into the weekend will limit any rain chances to the eastern Arizona high terrain.

- Near to below normal temperatures are forecast to persist through at least the middle of next week with lower desert highs mostly between 101 and 106 degrees each day.

SHORT TERM /Today through Friday/
The remnant MCV from yesterday morning is still the main driving force of shower activity with a fairly large area of showers and a few embedded thunderstorms encompassing much of southwest Arizona into western Maricopa County. This activity should yield rainfall amounts upwards of 0.50-0.75" in some locations through sunrise this morning. The upper level low is finally making progress northward with the center now just off the coast of central Baja.
Southerly flow on the eastern fringes of the low is also starting to bring dry air northward through Sonora with this dry air slated to push through much of southern and central Arizona by this afternoon. Once we lose the support from the MCV and any remaining instability over southwest Arizona, we are not expecting anything other than a few isolated convective showers this afternoon. PoPs have been curtailed considerably from the NBM baseline as Hi-Res CAMs show little if any activity after sunrise today.

The extensive cloud shield will also get eroded from south to north by mid to late morning with much more sunshine expected this afternoon compared to yesterday. Temperatures will in turn respond by warming to just above 100 degrees for the majority of the lower deserts this afternoon.

Dry air is forecast to continue spreading into the region from the south on Friday as the weakening upper level low likely shifts into southern California by Friday afternoon/evening. There may be enough lingering moisture for some isolated showers or maybe a thunderstorm or two west of the Phoenix area and over the eastern Arizona high terrain, but once again the convection should be very limited. Temperatures Friday will continue to warm as we dry out with highs likely topping out at around 105 degrees across the lower deserts.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Wednesday/
Guidance continues to show overall quiet and not so hot weather conditions this weekend through the first half of next week.
Southwesterly dry flow is likely to persist at least into next Monday with only meager amounts of moisture over eastern Arizona.
This should be enough to bring some daily chances (10-30%) for isolated showers and thunderstorms over eastern Arizona, but chances over the lower deserts are generally less than 10%.
Chances may improve slightly by Monday or Tuesday as guidance shows some additional moisture drifting northward out of Mexico, but overall moisture is not likely to be very plentiful and there are no discernible features within the models to help bring anything other than the typical afternoon mountain convection.
The synoptic pattern is rather stagnant over the weekend and through the first half of next week with a large trough sitting just to our northwest and the subtropical ridge mostly over the Southern Plains. Model trends over the last couple of days have actually showed the upper low having more of an influence on our region keeping our temperatures from warming up any further. The latest NBM forecast highs through the middle of next week keep readings right at or even a couple degrees below normal. This should keep the HeatRisk over our area anywhere from high-end Minor to low-end Moderate.

AVIATION
Updated at 1705Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, KDVT: Overall quiet weather expected this TAF period. Isolated showers could form late this afternoon, but should remain anchored to higher terrain and thus not expected to impact valley TAFs.
Otherwise, winds will remain light and variable with slight diurnal direction tendencies. Expect FEW-SCT clouds AOA 8 kft.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Overall quiet weather expected this TAF period. Isolated showers/storms could form late this afternoon but confidence and coverage remains only at 5-10 percent, so not warranted in TAFs.
KIPL wind tendencies will be from the southeast with more of a southerly component for KBLH.

FIRE WEATHER
Below normal temperatures and increased humidities will continue today before drying occurs Friday into the weekend. Expect scattered showers and a few isolated thunderstorms today with very limited chances on Friday. Afternoon MinRHs will stay between 25-30% today before dropping closer to 20% Friday and into the teens this weekend. Winds over the next few days should mostly follow diurnal patterns with only light periodic breezes in the afternoon. High pressure will somewhat return to the region this weekend with RHs dropping back into the teens, but temperatures will at most return to normal. Any rain chances should be quite limited and only over the eastern Arizona high terrain.

PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...None.
CA...None.