Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Desert Center, CA

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread breezy to locally windy conditions through this evening.

- A Red Flag Warning remains in effect through this evening for higher terrain areas north and east of Phoenix, with critical fire weather conditions due to very dry and breezy conditions.

- Temperatures cool to below normal Sunday and remain below normal through at least the first half of next week.

- Slight chances (10 to 20 percent) for afternoon storms in parts of Southern Gila County beginning Tuesday.

DISCUSSION
Water vapor imagery showing a dry southwest flow across the region as upper level troughing continues to dig across the west. As upper trough continues to dig into the area, gusty southwest winds have increased, combining with low humidities to produce critical fire weather conditions in many areas of the region.
While most desert areas are currently gusting in the 20 to 25 mph range this afternoon, most higher elevations north and east of Phoenix are seeing 25 to 40 mph gusts common. Therefore, the Red Flag Warning headlines are still on track through 8pm, after which winds will slowly subside. One other area receiving stronger winds is across southwest Imperial County. Winds in this region have been gusting in the 45 to 55 mph range all day, so wind advisory remains on track through this evening before those winds also subside.

After this evening, much quieter weather is in store for the region as strong ridge (and associated extreme heat) anchors across the eastern CONUS which keeps overall troughiness across the southwest. Lighter wind regime will play out and it will keep temperatures in check through mid week. Lowest temperatures forecast for Sunday before a slow warming trend. Most lower desert locations will struggle to reach 100 degrees which is unusual for late June. Phoenix has only observed a sub-100 degree high 7 times between June 20th-30th during the 2000s (Yuma 11 times & El Centro 13 times). As you would expect, this is short lived and temperatures could be back to near or above 110 in many areas by next weekend. HeatRisk through the week will be minor.

Where is the monsoon moisture? Global ensemble members continue to show a battle between dry air over most of AZ and more moist monsoon conditions to the east and southeast beginning around Tuesday. The aforementioned trough across the west will work to keep dry air and southwesterly flow in place, at least over SE CA and western AZ. But, some deep moisture over northern Mexico looks to make its way into SE AZ. This moisture, in combination with upper level support, could lead to some isolated to scattered thunderstorms beginning around Tuesday. This supports some low end chances for showers and storms as far north as the White Mountains and into Gila County. Global ensemble members show this moisture hanging around through the week, which the current NBM is showing as daily low-end thunderstorm chances for this area, while the rest of AZ will more likely have to wait until at least early July. Still, it will be worth paying more attention to the thunderstorm activity to the east toward the end of the week when the mid-level flow weakens. Perhaps storm activity will trend a little closer and thunderstorm outflows will start making a push toward the Valley.

AVIATION
Updated at 2345Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, KDVT: Gusty west to southwest winds through this evening will be the main aviation weather issue throughout the TAF period under clear skies. Peak gusts upwards of 20-25 kts out of the west to southwest will continue through the early evening hours before speeds diminish under 10 kts heading into the late evening hours.
Winds will shift out of the east by the overnight period and persist through early Sunday morning before veering more out of the south by the mid-morning hours and then settling out of west to southwest by the early afternoon hours. Overall winds Sunday afternoon will be lighter as peak gusts upwards of 20 kts are expected.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Gusty winds through this evening will be the main aviation weather issue throughout the TAF period under clear skies. Winds at KIPL will be out of the west through early Sunday morning before a shift more out of the north to northwest materializes by later Sunday morning. At KBLH, southwest winds will prevail through the overnight period before a shift out of the north materializes early Sunday morning. Wind gusts through early this evening will peak at around 25 kts at KBLH and exceed 30 kts at times at KIPL.
Wind speeds will gradually diminish through the overnight period with significantly lighter speeds under 10 kts prevailing during the day on Sunday. Some reduced visibilities, but likely remaining P6SM, due to haze from lofted smoke from a wildfire in Mexico will continue to remain possible through tonight.

FIRE WEATHER
A Red Flag Warning remains in effect through this evening across the higher terrain to the north and east of Phoenix as gusty winds continue to combine with low humidities. Most critical conditions in western Maricopa, central Pinal, eastern Riverside, and northwest La Paz counties. Expect low humidities from 5 to 15 percent and gusty winds from 25-35 mph most places. Sunday through next week winds will be much lighter, with more typical afternoon breezes. Conditions will remain dry, with daily minRHs mostly at or below 15 percent with overnight recoveries only into the 20 to 40 percent range. Near to below normal temperatures are expected through the first half of next week.

PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ133.

CA...Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for CAZ562-566.