Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Desert Center, CA

KEY MESSAGES

- High pressure will persist over the region through at least the middle of the week resulting in above-normal temperatures and dry conditions.

- Weak low pressure will meander its way toward the region by late in the week and into the weekend bringing cooler temps and chances for rainfall.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
It's a tale of two halves weather wise for the CONUS today as omega blocking remains in place. Out east, long wave troughing is providing bitterly cold temperatures, parts of Florida even saw some snow yesterday morning. Meanwhile, high amplitude ridging stretching from Northern Mexico up through Alaska is keeping things warm and dry for the Intermountain West. As for the Desert Southwest, status quo seems to be best way to describe the next few days as the area of high pressure remains the dominant feature over the region. Temperatures will be on a very slight downtrend as we go through the week as cold air from the previously- mentioned longwave shaves away at the ridge, lowering heights aloft. Afternoon highs this afternoon for lower desert areas will range from 72-79 degrees before falling to between 70-75 degrees by Wednesday.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
The weather pattern is expected to become more unsettled late this week into the weekend as a Pacific trough is likely to become cut off from the main flow on Tuesday and Wednesday and reach the coast of California on Thursday. The evolution of the system thereafter is still somewhat uncertain, but there is at least some model consensus of the low tracking southeastward just off the coast of southern California into northern Baja area on Friday. The track of the low over the weekend could be anywhere across northern Mexico to over southern portions of our region, but guidance mostly agrees it will be in a weakening phase as this happens.

Forecast moisture for late this week into the weekend is also not all that impressive with PWAT anomalies currently topping out around 150% of normal, but they have been trending higher over the past day or two of model runs. The current forecast shows the uncertainty by only having 10-30% PoPs across southern and central Arizona on Friday and Saturday. A more direct hit of the system along with even higher than forecast moisture would bring more widespread higher PoPs, while a more southerly track would likely bring little if any rainfall. Either way this system is not expected to bring impactful weather to the region.

AVIATION
Updated at 0505Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT and Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No major aviation concerns under FEW cirrus cloud decks can be expected through the TAF period. Light and diurnal winds with speeds generally aob 8 kts along with extended periods of variable and calm conditions will be common.

FIRE WEATHER
High pressure will remain over the region through midweek keeping temperatures above normal and dry conditions in place. Daily MinRH values will remain stable, falling to 15-20% each day with overnight recoveries of 30-50%. Winds will overall be light through the period with only some periodic light breeziness across the Lower CO River Valley and over the Arizona high terrain. The weather pattern should eventually shift enough by next weekend to allow for cooler temperatures, an increase in humidities and possibly a period of light rainfall.

PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...None.
CA...None.