Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Calabash, NC

UPDATE
Storm initiation underway already as expected. CAPE values are already exceeding 2000J/Kg in some locaes and LCLs are below 1000m so even though we are only in the late morning hours cells may be on the strong side with heavy rain and microburts. Later today as updrafts mature a 1" hail threat should also materialize.
No changes are anticipated at this time.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Mid to upper low will open up this morning with trough axis swinging through the Carolinas later this afternoon into early this evening. This will enhance shower and thunderstorm activity later today. Looking at the model soundings, should see best chc of storms later today into early evening with lapse rates steepening giving rise to potential hail and gusty winds.
SPC has area outlined in a marginal risk. May even see enough shortwave energy to keep storms going into tonight. Overall, expect storms to be more scattered and localized in nature. A deep SW flow will continue through today with winds veering to a more westerly direction tonight as trough lifts off to the north and east. High temps will be up around 80 with dewpoints in the mid 60s. Lows tonight will be in the mid 60s.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Will be under the influence of low amplitude upper ridging and associated subsidence and downslope moisture scouring effect trajectory during this period. Expect a drying trend along with increasingly very warm temperatures this period. The upper ridge axis extending from the NE Gulf to the Lower Great Lakes at the start of this period, will slide eastward to the East Coast by daybreak Fri and off the SE States Coast Fri night. With NW flow aloft backing to the W by the end of this period, will keep moisture tapping minimal. Various guidance illustrates max temps Thu around 90 and low to mid 90s, away from the beaches, Fri. Will be able to radiate out although may see weak to modest low level jet keeping the boundary layer mixed each night.
Still looking at min temps in the 60s to around 70 Thu night and 70-75 Fri night.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Upper ridge axis will be offshore from the SE States start of this period. A sfc cold front will be situated just west of the spine of the Appalachians at the start of this period. The sfc pg will tighten across the FA ahead of the cold front as a lee side trof develops ahead of the front. Will see breezy SW-W winds Sat with max temps eclipsing 90, just not as warm as Fri.
Pcpn and clouds scour out pretty good after the cold front pushes across the Appalachians, with only an isolated tstorm or shower at best prior to the CFP late Sat or Sat night. For Sun into next week, a closed low drops to the low and amplifying NE States with an amplifying trof extending along the East Coast.
At the same time, an amplified upper ridging springs into action along the entire length of the Mississippi River Valley. Flow becomes northwest aloft while models potential indicate some cooler air being filtered southward to the Carolinas from Canadian high pressure north of the Great Lakes. Whether this pans out we shall see. However, this NW flow aloft may be subject to embedded vorts with associated convection pushing in the vicinity Sun thru Mon. Too early to make a reflection in the POP fields.

AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR will prevail through the morning with mid level clouds across the area with spotty showers at times. Some MVFR ceilings will come into play mainly after 14z as clouds and convection chances increase. Have included probs for TSRA aftn to early eve. Winds will remain out of the SSW generally 10 kts or less through TAF period.

Extended Outlook...Improving conditions are expected Thursday and Friday, with drier air bringing a return to VFR.

MARINE
Through tonight...Small Craft Advisory will end very early this morning for the northern waters. A persistent SW flow will continue through the period up to 10 to 15 kts tonight. Seas will come down from 4 to 6 ft to 3 to 4 ft by tonight with diminishing SE swell of around 7 seconds.

Thursday through Sunday...SW winds to dominate this period, initially around 15kt g20+ kt thru Thu night.
Diminishing Fri to aob 10 kt with the sfc pg relaxing. Later Fri night, LLJ SW 20-25 kt will increase winds back to 10-15g20kt and the tightening sfc pg Sat ahead of the front will likely see a solid 15 to possibly 20 kt. Will see winds veer to westerly immediately ahead and behind the cold front late Sat into Sun, however sfc pressure pattern will return the SW winds later Sun thru Sun night around 10 kt. Seas will generally remain in the 2 to 4 foot range for nearly the entire period. The SE to S swell at 7+ second periods will dominate Thu thru Fri followed by SW wind waves becoming more dominant Sat into Sun with an underlying small SE swell at 8+ second period.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Other - Rip Currents: There is a high risk of rip currents for the Pender and New Hanover County Beaches. Leftover SE-S 7 to 9 second period swell will continue to affect the area beaches resulting with 2 to 4 foot surf conditions and a high rip current risk threat. The 3 to 5 hour window centered around low tide will be the time most susceptible for rip current activity.
Low tide this afternoon will occur around 300 pm EDT.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NCZ106-108.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.