Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Little River, SC

UPDATE
No changes to the forecast at this time. Do believe that the small severe threat has spread into SC where an earlier clearing of the sky has allowed greater instability to develop.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Deep southerly flow will continue around mid to upper low as it spins and lifts northward through the Tennessee Valley today into the the Ohio Valley by Wed morning. The sfc flow will veer slightly from S-SE to S-SW through the day which will eventually help to bring some drier air in, but initially, shwrs and tstms will continue to produce occasional moderate to heavy rain across the area. The greatest pcp water values, up near 2 inches, feeding into NC overnight into this morning will shift north by the end of the day. But, before it does, the enhanced low level flow combined with some shortwave energy riding around the deep upper low with increased instability and shear could produce possible localized brief tornado or wind damage threat.
Overall, clouds and occasional shwrs/tstms will continue into today. Sounding profiles and guidance show drying through the mid-levels by later today into tonight as upper low lifts north, but although the deepest moisture will shift northward, potential for scattered shwrs will continue into tonight. With a warm start to the day, and temps already in the mid to upper 60s early this morning, temps will top 80 most places with breaks in the clouds. Low temps tonight will be in the mid 60s with less clouds and chc of shwrs, but plenty of residual moisture.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
At the start of this period the upper low will be across the Ohio River Valley and will likely transition into an open trof during early Wed. The upper trof axis will negatively tilt as it pivots across the area Wed afternoon and east of the area during Wed night. Still plenty of moisture avbl, combined with the trof dynamics and the days heating, should see POPs start up early Wed if not already ongoing and fill in across the area to likely or possibly categorical POPs Wed aftn/evening. Will be more convective in nature, with definitely more lightning involved when compared to the nature of the pcpn that occurred Mon night/Tue morning. The deeper Atlantic tropical moisture and pinched sfc pg will get shunted further offshore during this period. Later Wed night thru Thu night, look for a drying trend thru the atm column as flow aloft becomes more NW, this in part due to a low amplitude upper ridging extending from the NE Gulf to the Lower Great Lakes. This will help limit convection to low chance at best Thu with temps rebounding to above normal, at or just shy of 90 degree max temps Thu, cooler at the immediate coast although adjacent SSTs are now in the 70s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
The highlight of this period will be the widespread 90 degree readings Fri and again Sat as upper ridging to our west Fri, pushes across the FA and off the SE States Coast. This will keep a NW to W flow aloft across the area, with no tapping of major moisture sources. Subsidence aloft to dominate Fri and lessen in strength Sat that could lead to isolated sea breeze convection if the forcing along it is strong enough. Models indicate the next cold front, lacking moisture, may push across the FA early Sun and possibly dropping completely south of the FA thru Mon. Much will depend on the flow aloft, with an upper low over the NE States and upper ridging amplifying across the Central U.S. Nevertheless, will indicate lower temps Sun and Mon, indicative to near normal. And will keep POPs isolated at best associated with the CFP early Sun.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Generally a VFR forecast with light S to SE winds that will become variable overnight. Showers and thunderstorms will be initiated along the sea breeze (and with a storm motion to the N could tend to avoid coastal terms...almost went with VC instead of PROB30) and also the upper disturbance currently firing storms just west of our I95 counties. FLO and LBT likely have the best chance for flight category restrictions. Guidance has backed off on even what would only be MVFR fog tonight but given the ample rainfall as of late left in the forecast. Showers and storms likely scattered in coverage yet again Wednesday, possibly even within this TAF cycle.

Extended Outlook...High confidence in periodic flight restrictions through Wednesday, with occasional shra/tsra.
Improving conditions are expected Thursday and Friday, with drier air bringing a return to VFR.

MARINE
Through tonight...Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all local coastal waters through this evening. Looks like seas will drop off in the southern waters, south of Cape Fear, by this afternoon but not until mid to late evening in the outer waters north of Cape Fear. SE to southerly winds will persist through tonight but will drop off down to 10 kts or so, allowing seas to fall, as well.

Wednesday through Saturday...Winds and especially seas will peak at the start of this period. Followed by a slow abating trend in the seas, specifically the separate SE to S swells at 6 to 8 second periods will eventually become mainly a dominant diminished in height S swell Thu thru Sat along with locally produced wind waves/chop. SW wind directions at 10 to occasionally 15 kt will dominate this period. The daily sea breeze, especially Fri/Sat, will result in gusty S winds (g20 kt possible) and choppiness to the seas near shore during the afternoon/evening. Any convection will likely originate over land this period, then push off the mainland and across the local waters once winds aloft contain more of an offshore component. Convection coverage will peak Wed becoming more isolated the days there-after.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Other - Rip Currents: There is a high risk of rip currents for all area beaches today with rough surf in the 3-5 foot range, periodically higher in sets. A Southeast Fresh or Pseudo swell around 8 second periods will combine with the onshore S wind wave at 4 to 6 second periods will dominate the beach scene today.

Thereafter, should observe a slow demise with rip current risks thru the week, possibly dropping to a low rip risk across all beaches by Fri.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108-110.
SC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054- 056.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ250- 252-254-256.