Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for March ARB, CA

DISCUSSION
FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES...

This afternoon, a convective precipitation band is pushing through the coastal basin along the cold front attached to the low pressure system to the north. This will continue to bring heavy rain and gusty winds to San Diego County and eastern mountains through this evening. Rainfall rates of 0.3-0.5" per hour remain possible in these areas presenting a minor flood risk for the next few hours. A strong LLJ may allow for isolated strong wind gusts in the stronger convection currently coming onshore in San Diego County.

Scattered post-frontal showers lingering this evening across the coastal basin, but any additional rainfall should remain light with minimal impacts. Clearing expected from west to east across the area tonight as the low pressure system exits the region.

Much more benign weather will follow as a weak ridge builds into the southwestern US leading to dry conditions and gradual warming through the weekend. A surface high will move over intermountain west by Wednesday and should create enough of an offshore pressure gradient to prevent marine layer cloud development for a few days.

By early next week another upper level trough will swing across the western US. This should bring temperatures back to below average, but impacts beyond that are uncertain at this time.

AVIATION
142045Z...Heaviest showers moving VCTY SAN will be the last of the heaviest rain activity and 2-4sm vis reductions. BKN-OVC clouds will begin to rise from north to south through the afternoon with varying bases 1500-3000 ft. Any -SHRA activity will be associated with bases below 1000 ft at times. -SHRA becoming more intermittent along and west of the mountains until 0Z, drying out there after with scattering clouds. Mostly clear after 17Z Wed.

S/SW winds along the coast will gust up to 30 kts until 23Z. Gusts 30-40 kts in the mountains and desert slopes until 06Z Wed. MOD UDDFS and local LLWS or rotors in lee of mountains such as vcnty KPSP. Local vis reduced 3-5SM in BLDU in deserts through 22Z.

MARINE
Strong southerly winds will begin to weaken through this afternoon, turning west. Conditions still hazardous for small craft (check the Small Craft Advisory for details) through late afternoon. Weaker westerly winds will follow behind the front. No additional hazardous marine conditions are expected this evening through Saturday.

BEACHES
Surf will be 3 to 5 feet, with occasional sets to 6 feet through tonight. This will produce a high rip current risk.

SKYWARN
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions.



SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Wind Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for San Diego County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Valleys.

Flash Flood Watch until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for Orange County Inland Areas-San Bernardino County Mountains-Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for Coastal Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border and out to 10 nm-Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border Extending 10 to 60 nm out including San Clemente Island.