Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Manhattan Beach, CA

.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...14/129 PM.

Overall, 12Z models in good synoptic agreement through the short term period. At upper levels, high pressure continues over the desert Southwest through Sunday then get flattened by a trough moving across the West Coast Monday/Tuesday. Near the surface, moderate onshore flow will persist to the east, but there will be increasing northerly offshore gradients.

Forecast-wise, main issue in the short term will be the winds, more specifically northerly winds. High resolution models indicate increasing northerly offshore gradients through the period. This will translate to increasing northerly winds across the usual spots (Santa Ynez Range and I-5 Corridor). Based on high resolution models and ensembles, advisory-level winds looks likely across the western Santa Ynez Range tonight through Sunday night.
By Monday night/Tuesday morning, the advisory-level northerly winds look to spread into the eastern Santa Ynez Range (Montecito area) as well as the I-5 Corridor. So, will issue WIND ADVISORIES for the western Santa Ynez range tonight with a high likelihood of advisories being needed Sunday night and Monday night. Other than the northerly winds, the moderate onshore gradients to the east will generate gusty southwesterly winds across interior sections through Tuesday.

As for clouds, the marine layer will continue to be a challenge.
The increasing northerly flow will limit any stratus/fog across southern SBA county through Tuesday. Otherwise, stratus/fog will still be likely across most of the remainder of the coastal plain with limited inland penetration to the coastal valleys as the inversion should become a bit more shallow in the next couple of days.

Finally with respect to temperatures, no significant changes to previous thinking. At this time, Sunday looks to be the warmest day across the area with valleys in the 90s and low 100s across the deserts. Although well above normal, do not anticipate any heat issues requiring any sort of advisory on Sunday. For Monday and Tuesday, temperature trends will be mixed. However, most areas will be slightly cooler, but still a few degrees above normal.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...14/129 PM.

For the extended, 12Z models continue to exhibit decent synoptic agreement. At upper levels, ridge will nudge over the area on Wednesday then will be flattened/pushed eastward as a trough rolls across the West Coast Thursday through Saturday. Near the surface, typical trends will continue with moderate onshore gradients to the east and weak northerly offshore gradients.

Forecast-wise, no significant issues are expected through the period. Wednesday will likely be the warmest day of the extended as ridge pops up over the area and marine layer stratus is limited. For Thursday through Saturday, a cooling trend can be expected with the trough rolling across the West Coast, lowering thicknesses and H5 heights. As for the marine layer stratus coverage, will expect a gradual increase in areal coverage night-to-night, but lingering northerly flow will continue to limit stratus across the southern SBA county coast. As for winds, typical southwesterly winds can be expected each afternoon across interior sections.

AVIATION
14/1823Z.

At 1537Z at KLAX, the marine inversion was based at 2100 feet.
The top of the inversion was 5400 feet with a temperature of 21 C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for KPRB, KWJF and KPMD.

Low confidence in TAFs for KSBP and KSMX. There is a 40% and 20% chance VFR conds prevail, respectively. Otherwise, there is a 30% chance for VLIFR conds. Arrival time of cigs may be off by 2 hours.

Low confidence in TAFs for KBUR and KVNY. There is a 40% chance for LIFR conds at KBUR and KVNY tonight. Arrival time of cigs may be off by 2 hours.

Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. Clearing of cigs this morning may be off by 90 minutes. There is a 20% chance for VFR conds to prevail at KSBA after cigs clear this morning. There is a 10% chance for VLIFR conds at KOXR and KCMA tonight. Flight cat changes tonight may be off by 2 hours.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Return of low clouds could be as early as 04Z or as late as 08Z. There is a 20% for cigs of OVC007-009 upon arrival tonight. No significant east wind component is expected.

KBUR...Low confidence in TAF. There is a 40% chance for OVC002-004 cigs and vsbys 1-2SM. Arrival of cigs could be off 2 hours.

MARINE
14/119 PM.

High confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level northwest winds across the Outer Waters and Inner Waters along the Central coast through next week. Lulls in winds along the Central Coast are likely in the overnight and early morning hours. There is potential for Gale Force Winds Monday through Tuesday night, with highest confidence in the Outer Waters. Seas will also approach 10 feet at times through next week.

High confidence in SCA level northwest winds across the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel, potentially expanding to the eastern portion of the Channel Monday afternoon through late Tuesday. There is a also a low to moderate chance of Gale Force Wind gusts in the western portion of the Channel Monday and Tuesday afternoon and evening. Otherwise, conditions look to remain below advisory criteria through next week for the remainder of the Inner Waters south of Point Conception. However, local SCA wind gusts from the northwest may occur in typical windy spots Monday afternoon through late Tuesday.

BEACHES
14/321 AM.

A long period south swell will bring elevated surf conditions up to 5-6 feet along south-facing portions of the LA/VTA coastline through the weekend. There will be a high risk for hazardous rip currents - thus be sure to swim near an occupied lifeguard tower.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Wind Advisory in effect from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM PDT Sunday for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Beach Hazards Statement in effect through late Sunday night for zones 354-362-366-367. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT Monday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Gale Watch in effect from Monday afternoon through late Tuesday night for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).