Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Sunset Beach, NC

KEY MESSAGES
1) Record warm temperatures and persistently dry weather may create fire weather hazards this week.

2) A cold front is expected to arrive Sunday with limited rainfall chances. The front will allow a cooler airmass with a period of below normal temperatures to overspread the area Sunday night through Tuesday night.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Record warm temperatures and persistently dry weather may create fire weather hazards this week.

The upper ridge along the Southeast U.S. coast is at its strongest right now and will weaken with the approach of a modest shortwave trough moving eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys on Friday. As the shortwave moves offshore late Friday, heights will rise again across the Southeast for what may be our hottest day, Saturday, so far in 2026. All this upper ridging is supporting Bermuda high pressure at the surface and warm southwesterly synoptic winds should continue through the first half of Sunday.

Models remain very stable in their depiction of well above normal 850 mb temps across the eastern Carolinas for the next few days. 850 mb temps near +16C today and Friday could surge to +17 to +18C on Saturday as the upper ridge restrengthens. This is 3 to 4C above the 90th percentile climo values on SPC's sounding climatology webpage and is very near normal for mid July. This should translate to high temperatures inland near 90 degrees today and Friday, then rising into the lower 90s on Saturday. Onshore synoptic and seabreeze winds near the coast should keep daytime temperatures 6-12 degrees cooler.

Our latest forecast explicitly forecasts Florence's record to be tied today and Lumberton's record to be tied on Saturday. It will likely be no more than 3 degrees away from all record highs at Wilmington, Lumberton, and Florence over the next several days, so no records are truly safe.

Inland from the cooler coastline, vertical mixing should be deep enough to bring down drier air from within the subsidence inversion aloft. Dewpoints should crash through the 50s across the Pee Dee and Border Belt regions each afternoon. This should result in minimum relative humidity of 30-35 percent today and 25-30 percent Friday and Saturday. Given it's now been ten days with no measurable rainfall and fuel/soil moisture continues to decrease, Fire Danger Statements will likely be needed each day for portions of the Carolinas.

Record highs today through Saturday:
Thu Apr 16
Fri Apr 17...Sat Apr 18 Wilmington
90 in 2006
89 in 2006...93 in 1976 Lumberton
93 in 1941
91 in 2006...91 in 1941 Florence
90 in 2006
93 in 2006...93 in 1981 N Myrtle Beach
87 in 2006
87 in 1995...89 in 1976

KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front is expected to arrive Sunday with limited rainfall chances. The front will allow a cooler airmass with a period of below normal temperatures to overspread the area Sunday night through Tuesday night.

An energetic shortwave moving across the Great Lakes on Sunday and New England on Monday will push a surface cold front through the Carolinas Sunday. Model trends are slightly faster with this feature than 24 hours ago which implies the front could slide offshore before peak heating (and before potential peak instability) in the afternoon. From a qualitative view, the 850-700 mb Gulf moisture surge arriving coincident with the front looks a bit better than was depicted over the past few days. Therefore shower or t-storm chances are essentially unchanged at 20-30 percent on Sunday, diminishing rapidly Sunday evening behind the front.

A Canadian airmass building across the area Sunday night through Tuesday will bring refreshingly cool nights and dry, pleasant days.
Sunday night's lows should reach the mid 40s with some wind. By Monday night lower to middle 40s are expected, but less wind means normally colder spots on peat and organic soils could dip into the 30s. Temperatures should moderate back toward normal by Wednesday as the Canadian high pushes offshore.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR. Mainly intermittent cirrus and a few cu with possibility of smoke across northeast SC from a couple of fires in Williamsburg and Marion counties. S to SW winds will persist with winds less than 10 kts overnight and becoming gusty during the afternoon...southwest 10 kts with gusts up to 15 to 20 kts.

Extended Forecast... Predominantly VFR through the weekend due to high pressure. Only exception could be some MVFR or even IFR fog heading into sunrise each morning. A cold front will bring the potential for light showers on Sunday.

MARINE
Through Tonight...Summer-like Bermuda High will maintain a quiet and persistent forecast. Near the coast, winds will be enhanced by an afternoon sea breeze with gusts up to 20 knots.
Inlets could be choppy. Seas will be 2 to 4 ft feet with a longer period easterly swell mixing in.

Friday through Monday...A light to moderate southwesterly wind will continue up until the arrival of a cold front during the day Sunday.
Synoptic winds should average 10-12 knots, but the seabreeze each afternoon will increase nearshore winds as high as 15-20 kt. Seas will consist of a mix of local wind chop with an east- southeast 9 second swell generated by a long easterly fetch south of the Bermuda high.

The aforementioned cold front should arrive at the beaches around noon on Sunday, followed by a sudden shift to northerly winds which could increase to 20-25 knots. Small Craft Advisory conditions are possible Sunday night into early Monday morning.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ106-108.
SC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for SCZ054-056.
MARINE...None.