Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Sunset Beach, NC

UPDATE
Decaying convection to the west expected to have little impact on the area today, though isolated storms are possible. Overall, going forecast has a good handle on latest expectations but did make small tweaks to max T and winds. Still a warm day on tap but perhaps a shade cooler with debris clouds moving in from the west.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A strong system/cold front currently moving across the Tennessee Valley and producing significant convection will seemingly have little to work with later today and this evening as it crosses our area. Overall pops remain minimal and if anything near the coast later this afternoon for just a couple of hours. The extensive cloud cover however seems to have taken a toll on guidance with regards to high temperature guidance as even the 90th percentile NBM numbers are trending downward.
Still if enough breaks in the cloud cover occur a site or two could thread the needle and tie or break a record. The official forecast has been trended downward as well.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Front stalls in the area Sun and Mon as the surface boundary ends up parallel to the flow aloft. There is a lone shortwave moving through the zonal flow aloft on Sun, but the timing of the PVA ahead of it is prior to peak heating. The best moisture/dynamics with the shortwave pass to the south, further decreasing the potential for any affects locally. Deep, dry and and mid-level capping (post wave subsidence) will keep the region dry Sun with highs 7-10 degrees above normal. Deep westerly flow will keep the sea breeze pinned near the coast, ensuring much of the area remains on the warm side.
Somewhat cooler air follows the passage of the shortwave, which helps push the stalled front a little farther south. This drops Sun night lows close to normal.

Front lingers south of the area Mon morning but then starts to work its way north during the next. Flow aloft starts to amplify as weak 5h ridge expands north over the Deep South. Shortwave topping the ridge Mon induces weak surface cyclogenesis which then helps lift the front across the area. Not enthused about rain chances on Mon.
Forecast soundings show a lot of dry air below 500mb and even with another day of temperatures well above normal the abundant dry air will keep SBCAPE AOB 200 J/kg. Even the development of a resultant sea breeze will not be enough to generate any convection. Guidance does suggest potential for MCS development Mon evening in the western Carolinas which then migrates east-southeast. If this feature does develop it would be in a weakening state as it approaches the local area. The environment doe not improve much from earlier in the day, the MCS will bring an increase in mid-level moisture with it, but the lack of surface based instability and marginal laps rates will likely be the end of any weak convection trying to move in from the northwest.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Front lingers north of the local area Tue/Wed as stacked low takes shape across the central CONUS. Honest rain chances Tue, although limited moisture will keep coverage in the chance realm. Rain chances ramp up Wed with much more moisture in the region as a cold front approaches. Precipitable water surges to almost 2" which is near 170% of normal, for comparison Tue is "only" about 130% of normal. Frontal convergence and divergence aloft as the 5h trough approaches from the west will further enhance the environmental parameters. Storms will be moving at a good clip and higher LCLs will limit warm cloud layer depth despite a freezing level near 14k ft. Not really a flood kind of event, but given the low level dry air, inverted V sounding, high freezing layer and DCAPE around 700 J/kg cannot rule out a damaging wind gust, but widespread severe seems unlikely, especially with a low level jet struggling to hit 30kt. Cold front moves across the area Wed evening, lagging the convective line, and is followed by a much drier and cooler air mass. Although there will be a cutoff low over the Northeast or Mid- Atlantic region the abundance of dry air will limit any potential shower activity associated with the base of the 5h trough and any associated shortwaves. The week ends dry with temperatures below normal.

AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR conditions expected through the period. Convective coverage associated with the system moving across later today/overnight continues to look paltry at best so no significant impacts expected.

Extended Outlook...Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the period.

MARINE
Through Tonight...
Southwest winds on the increase this morning as the gradient increases ahead of a significant cold front to the west. Speeds will increase to an eventual 15-20 knots this afternoon and evening. Significant seas will be 2-4 feet for most of the day and increase to 3-5 feet this evening with the slightly stronger winds. Elements should remain below headline criteria.

Sunday through Wednesday...
Winds will be on the low end of the 10-15 kt range for much of the forecast. Front stalls in the area, weakening the gradient and leading to changeable wind direction. The daily sea breeze will have the biggest impact on the wind field Sun-Tue. On Wed an approaching cold front enhances the gradient with speeds rising into the 15-20 kt range in the afternoon and evening.
Seas will run 2-3 ft through the first part of next week before the increase in southwest winds starts building seas. It is possible headlines will be needed for seas later Wed given the 12+ hour duration of enhanced winds. Seas will be a mix of a south to southwest wind wave and southeast swell with the wind wave becoming much more dominant Wed.

CLIMATE
High temperature records may be challenged again today as anomalously warm air overspreads the region ahead of a cold front.
Record highs for our four climate sites are as follows:

Wilmington, NC: 92F (1960, 1990)
Lumberton, NC: 96F (1941)
Florence, SC: 93F (1977)
N. Myrtle Beach, SC: 92F (1941)

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.