Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Caswell Beach, NC

UPDATE
Quiet evening underway across the CWA, as strong convection stayed well north. Mid-level ridge will build over the area through the night, with a SW breeze continuing around Bermuda high pressure offshore. Temps will slowly fall into the upper 60s by sunrise Friday. Forecast is on track and no changes necessary.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
Little in the way of convection expected through Friday under mostly clear/partly cloudy skies and warm temperatures for the season. Lows tonight will fall to the upper 60s to lower 70s with highs Friday away from the beaches in the low to mid 90s.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Key Messages/Highlights: *Above normal temps w/ record high temps possible Saturday *Isolated damaging winds and/or large hail possible Saturday aftn/eve, especially in NC

Confidence: *Moderate to High

Details: A mostly zonal upper flow is expected with an inland surface trough giving way to a pretty weak cold front likely passing through Sat night. Limited moisture and forcing should preclude widespread rainfall but a few showers/storms are possible during the aftn/eve. There looks to be quite a bit of instability/shear for any storms to tap into so can't rule out a few damaging wind gusts and/or some large hail, mainly in NC. Temps should be the big story though as they will be well above normal, especially Saturday when they could reach record levels in the lower to mid 90s (see Climate section below for details).

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Key Messages/Highlights: *Above normal temps through the period *Mainly dry through at least Tue *No significant severe storm/flood risk until possibly Wed

Confidence: *Moderate to High through Tue *Low to Moderate Tue night through Thu

Details: Zonal to weak ridging pattern aloft should give way to more troughing late in the period although confidence is low regarding the timing/strength of the trough and associated surface frontal system. The previous front that had pushed south of the area over the weekend should push back north toward mid week ahead of the aforementioned frontal system developing farther to the west. Thus, it should remain fairly dry through at least Tue before rain chances increase although for now we are being fairly conservative given the uncertainty. Temps should stay above normal until possibly as early as Wed when they could fall back closer or even below normal.

AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR conditions expected through the forecast period, as a building mid-level ridge keeps convection suppressed through Friday. Bermuda high pressure will maintain a SW breeze.

Extended Outlook...Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the period.

MARINE
Through Friday...Expect S to SW winds 10 to 15 KT with higher gusts and seas of 3 to 4 FT.

Friday night through Tuesday...Moderate to high confidence this period. A weak cold front should move through Sat night with a marginal Small Craft Advisory possible for gusts to around 25 kt Sat aftn/eve prior to the frontal passage. Otherwise, a fairly weak pressure gradient is expected through the period w/ no headlines anticipated as seas stay mostly 4 ft or less.

CLIMATE
High temperature records may be challenged Friday and Saturday as anomalously warm air overspreads the region ahead of a cold front. Record highs for our four climate sites are as follows:

For Friday, May 16th...
Wilmington, NC: 94F (1915)
Lumberton, NC: 96F (1962, 1941)
Florence, SC: 93F (2022)
N. Myrtle Beach, SC: 91F (1941)

Saturday, May 17th...
Wilmington, NC: 92F (1960, 1990)
Lumberton, NC: 96F (1941)
Florence, SC: 93F (1977)
N. Myrtle Beach, SC: 92F (1941)

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.