Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Caswell Beach, NC

KEY MESSAGES
1) Record warm temperatures and persistently dry weather may create fire weather hazards this week.

2) A cold front is expected to arrive during Sunday with limited rainfall chances. The front will allow a cooler airmass with a period of below normal temperatures to overspread the area Sunday night through Tuesday night.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Record warm temperatures and persistently dry weather may create fire weather hazards this week.

A Fire Danger Statement continues for southeast NC through this evening. Dry conditions continue for the entire area with active fire evident on satellite. Minimum RH will drop into the upper 20s or lower 30s each afternoon, except for coastal areas where an afternoon sea breeze will keep minimum RH in the 40s.
Southerly winds remain weak, but seven-day rainfall totals are zero. Rainfall totals over the past three weeks are only 10-30 percent of normal, leading to intensifying drought and worsening soil and fuel moisture levels. Elevated Fire Danger statements may continue daily through the end of the week.

The persistent 500 mb ridge off the Southeast coast should get beaten down temporarily by the passage of an upper level shortwave across the Great Lakes and Mid Atlantic on Friday.
This truly is just an upper level feature with no discernible impact at or below 700 mb except for a weakening of the surface Bermuda high well offshore. Unusual warmth will continue through the period with 850 mb temps near +16C Thursday and Friday, then warming to almost +18C on Saturday as the upper ridge expands one final time. This would be at record high values for this time of year at the Morehead City upper air site according to the SPC sounding climatology webpage.

Inland high temperatures across Lumberton and the Pee Dee region should touch 90 degrees Thursday and Friday before surging into the lower 90s on Saturday. This looks to be the hottest stretch of the year so far. Along the coast, onshore synoptic winds and/or afternoon seabreeze winds will keep highs a good 6 to 12 degrees cooler than inland locations.

Record highs Thursday through Saturday:
Thu Apr 16
Fri Apr 17...Sat Apr 18

Wilmington
90 in 2006
89 in 2006...93 in 1976 Lumberton
93 in 1941
91 in 2006...91 in 1941 Florence
90 in 2006
93 in 2006...93 in 1981 N Myrtle Beach
87 in 2006
87 in 1995...89 in 1976

KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front is expected to arrive during Sunday with limited rainfall chances. The front will allow a cooler airmass with a period of below normal temperatures to overspread the area Sunday night through Tuesday night.

The cold front will encounter increasing moisture limitations as it moves east of the Appalachians during Monday. NBM probabilistic rainfall graphics show only low chances for >0.01 as the boundary moves through. The window for any precipitation appears limited as well, especially with deeper drying expected to develop by Sunday evening. Otherwise, expecting gusty winds (potentially 20-25 mph) several hours either side of the frontal passage. This is a fire weather concern given the drought status.

During Monday the surface high will build over the region during Monday providing a period of cooler than normal weather.
Highs during Monday will be hard pressed to reach 70/lower 70s even with full sun. Radiational cooling will likely be most effective Monday night into early Tuesday morning with the typical cool spots possibly dropping into the upper 30s. During Tuesday the high will move offshore allowing temperatures to recover by midweek.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR. Persistence forecast for the upcoming 24 hour period.
Smoke could impact visibilities late tonight for portions of the area. Predominant S and SW winds will turn southerly behind an afternoon sea breeze with gusts up to 20 knots.

Extended Forecast... Predominantly VFR through the weekend due to high pressure. Only exception could be some MVFR or even IFR fog heading into sunrise each morning. A cold front will bring the potential for light showers on Sunday.

MARINE
Through Thursday...Summer-like Bermuda high maintains a quiet and persistent forecast through Thursday. Near the coast, winds will be enhanced by an afternoon sea breeze and gusts up to 20 knots. Inlets could be choppy. Seas will be 2 to 4 ft feet with a longer period easterly swell mixing in.

Thursday night through Monday...SWly winds will prevail ahead of a weak inland surface trough Thursday night through Saturday with some backing each day with the sea breeze. A cold front moving across the waters during Sunday will allow winds to veer, and increase in the wake of the boundary Sunday afternoon/early evening. There could be a briefing period of Small Craft conditions during that time. Winds will continue to veer from an offshore direction to NE-Ely Monday through Tuesday as an area of high pressure translates over NC/VA and gradually offshore.
SWly winds could increase again Wednesday night and Thursday morning before a weak pressure gradient causes light/variable conditions late Thursday. Seas will generally be 3 ft or less through much of the period, but at times could reach 4-6' with the frontal passage and late Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
SC...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for SCZ054-058- 059.
MARINE...None.