Wednesday, December11, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ocean Isle Beach, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 5:08PM Wednesday December 11, 2019 2:09 PM EST (19:09 UTC) Moonrise 4:53PMMoonset 6:23AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 916 Am Est Wed Dec 11 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through late Friday night...
Rest of today..N winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt late. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
Tonight..N winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Thu..NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Thu night..NE winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri..E winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming s. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Showers.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers through the day.
Sun..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
AMZ200 916 Am Est Wed Dec 11 2019
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles. In the wake of the cold frontal passage early this morning, expect gusty nw thru ne winds. Strong Wedge of high pressure will dominate the region this afternoon thru early Fri. Low pressure system is expected to affect the area during Fri into Sat with elevated winds and seas continuing.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ocean Isle Beach, NC
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location: 33.91, -78.38     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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FXUS62 KILM 111625 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1125 AM EST Wed Dec 11 2019

SYNOPSIS. In the wake of the Cold frontal passage early this morning, expect gusty NW thru NE winds to develop and persist into Thu as ridging of high pressure affects the area with below normal temperatures. Gulf Low pressure system is expected to affect the area Fri into Sat with a good chance for rain. Drying conditions and high pressure will follow Sun into early next week.

UPDATE. Latest light radar returns show a line of sprinkles moving through the coastal NC counties. Outside of some very light sprinkles this morning, rain chances are drastically winding down for the rest of the day. The rest of the forecast remains on track.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/. Cold front has pushed across the FA and is now off the Carolina Coasts, pushing further east. Water vapor imagery shows moisture lagging behind the cold front and therefore will be dealing with post frontal cloudiness and pcpn, mainly in the form of patchy light rain or drizzle thru noon today, and low clouds giving way to mid and upper level clouds. The cold front is progged to stall well offshore as it becomes oriented parallel to the flow aloft. CAA and the tightened sfc pg will produce NNW-NNE winds at 10 to 15 mph, with gusts 20 to 25 mph thru mid-afternoon today. Drier air, thru the atm column, will eventually reach the FA from midday today and remain-so thru Thu. Ridging from the sfc high will set up a wedge scenario across the Carolinas later today thru Thu. The high's center is progged to move off the NE States late Thu, resulting in the wedge to begin breaking down late Thu night into Fri as the source of colder air that helps maintain the wedge becomes no longer avbl. The pressure pattern depicted off the coast by models late Thu indicate the development of a coastal trof/front and will be dealing with this in the subsequent period. Various model MOS Guidance depict highs both days in the 50-55 range and tonights lows 28-32 except along the immediate coast where mid 30s are progged.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/. Lingering moisture in the Western Gulf of Mexico will be picked up by a somewhat modest shortwave traversing what should be a zonal pattern by Thursday evening. This system however never really seems to get its act together until well north of the area. The main forcing mechanism will be isentropic lift with the coastal front. This will offer up the most organized rainfall. This occurs late Friday. Either side of this it appears to be shaping up to be kinda drizzly and overcast. Maintained the categorical pops. Temperatures will be high maintenance as usual with a coastal front. Highs Friday will be in the lower 60s or so along the coast with much cooler readings inland.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. A secondary mid level trough moving across to the north will bring a chance of lingering showers overnight Friday into the day Saturday. Beyond this the forecast will be dry with seasonable temperatures until late in the period when another front approaches. The first take with this system is very progressive with QPF amounts not overly impressive.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. MVFR convective rolls from diurnal heating across our western areas, affecting KFLO, should clear out by 18z TAF time. Scattered to broken high clouds to linger into overnight hours before clearing out as high pressure builds into the region. Current northerly winds will die down by sunset, especially inland. Winds veer to northeasterly by tomorrow morning, with winds tomorrow 10-15 kts and gusts near 20 kts.

Extended Outlook . Another round of MVFR/IFR is possible Friday into Saturday as an area of low pressure moves by the coastal Carolinas. VFR expected Sunday and Monday.

MARINE. Today thru Thu: The CFP has occurred and will be followed by a further tightening of the sfc pg and post frontal CAA. The 2 will combine to produce SCA conditions today into Thu. The CAA will become neutral Thu but the tightened sfc pg will be enough to produce continued SCA threshold winds thruout the day Thu and beyond. Significant seas will be dominated initially by a SE swell at 9 second periods. Wind driven waves at 3 to 5 second periods initially, will build with time and could equal or become the dominant producer of seas depending on the spectral density plot. The local waters will see spotty light rain or drizzle thru midday with improvements to sky condition this aftn and tonight.

Thu Night thru Sun: A coastal front and storm system will be affecting the waters for the first couple of days. This system at this point isn't the most dynamic of systems and winds should be in a 10-15 knot range. This and the changeable nature of wind directions seem to preclude any long lived headlines. The cold air advection in the wake of the system is modest as well and the offshore flow will be relatively weak as well. Significant seas will reach six feet Friday and drop below SCA thresholds Sat with 2-4 feet.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. SC . None. NC . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Saturday for AMZ250-252- 254-256.

SYNOPSIS . DCH UPDATE . MCK NEAR TERM . DCH SHORT TERM . SHK LONG TERM . SHK AVIATION . VAO MARINE . DCH/SHK


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 7 mi62 min N 16 G 19 52°F 56°F1027.7 hPa
41119 7 mi50 min 56°F2 ft
41108 23 mi70 min 57°F3 ft
WLON7 32 mi52 min 57°F 54°F1027.1 hPa
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 33 mi52 min 54°F
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 38 mi52 min N 12 G 14 51°F 57°F1026.4 hPa
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 39 mi62 min N 16 G 21 50°F 58°F1026.7 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 39 mi30 min 58°F3 ft
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 47 mi40 min N 21 G 25 55°F 73°F1026.2 hPa51°F

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC16 mi15 minNNW 11 G 1410.00 miFair55°F34°F46%1027.4 hPa
North Myrtle Beach Grand Strand Airport, SC19 mi17 minNNW 9 G 1610.00 miA Few Clouds55°F32°F42%1027.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSUT

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmCalmSE3S3S7SW5SW4SW5SW3S4S5SW4SW5SW7SW6SW6W5SW5SW7SW9SW10
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2 days agoN9N9N10N7N9N7N7N7NE5N3N5N5N4N5N3CalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Shallotte Inlet (Bowen Point), North Carolina
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Shallotte Inlet (Bowen Point)
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:19 AM EST     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:23 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 07:08 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:19 AM EST     5.36 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:57 PM EST     0.23 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:53 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:04 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:38 PM EST     4.40 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.500.21.12.53.94.85.35.24.63.62.51.40.50.20.71.72.83.84.34.443.12.1

Tide / Current Tables for Tubbs Inlet, North Carolina
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Tubbs Inlet
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:39 AM EST     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:24 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 06:50 AM EST     5.06 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:08 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 01:17 PM EST     0.23 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:53 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:05 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:09 PM EST     4.15 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.100.61.83.14.24.95.14.73.92.81.70.80.30.41.22.23.23.94.143.42.41.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.