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AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 1031 Pm Edt Mon Oct 2 2023
Overnight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Tue..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Tue night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Wed..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Wed night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Thu..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Thu night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Fri..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft.

AMZ200 1031 Pm Edt Mon Oct 2 2023
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure will dominate over the eastern u.s. Through mid- week, maintaining dry weather and northeast winds. Cold front forecasted to move across the area late week.

FXUS62 KILM 030210 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1010 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure prevails through most of the week, keeping the area mostly dry with temperatures near normal. A cold front brings only a slight chance of showers closer to the coast late Friday. After the front moves through, this weekend brings the biggest dose of fall seen so far this season.

UPDATE
No major forecast updates.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
A pretty static/unchanging pattern in place through the period.
A massive area of high pressure sits to our north and it will show little movement through Tuesday. A mid level ridge will be just to our north, and shortwave energy diving south across its western periphery stays to our south, but the atmosphere will be too dry for it to be of any consequence. The long NE fetch will continue to promote coastal flooding at high tides.
Temperatures will be a few degrees above normal.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Quiet forecast continues. The high pressure aloft and at the surface starts to push offshore Wednesday, bring more moisture into the fold, but not enough to produce any threats for rain.
Lows Tuesday night in the upper 50s inland, low 60s at the coast. More sunshine and a few cumulus clouds dotting the sky Wednesday afternoon, with highs in the low 80s. Some weak warm air and moisture advection kicks up Wednesday night. Dewpoints hit the low-to-mid 60s. Lows edge near 60 inland, low-to-mid 60s at the coast.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
More uniform ESE flow in the low-to-mid levels kicks up the moisture advection Thursday and Friday. Dewpoints continue to rise, hitting the upper 60s to near 70 across the area. Offshore showers likely Thursday, but only a slight chance that those showers end up grazing the coastal locales. Highs Thursday and Friday again in the low 80s. Lows Thursday night feeling rather muggy in the mid 60s.

A cold front sweeps through the area Friday and Friday night.
Models are trending a bit wetter this time, with the GFS by far being the wettest. Continuing a modest chance of showers Friday afternoon, particularly closer to the coast, where there will be more moisture to work with. Seeing a little more instability this time as well, but not really confident on much thunder at the moment....need to see more for me to flinch at it. Rain chances, such that they are, will taper off late Friday evening.
Lows Friday night in the low-to- mid 60s.

Front should be offshore by Saturday morning. Dry forecast from here on out. Even better yet, we get the biggest taste of fall so far this season. Highs in the upper 70s Saturday afternoon will then struggle to hit 70 Sunday and Monday. Lows Saturday night see mostly the low 50s, but with a few upper 40s in there as well. Upper 40s are more widespread Sunday night and Monday night, particularly inland. Turn off the AC, open the windows, and light a fire in the fireplace!

AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR expected for the 00Z TAF period. Some guidance is suggesting stratus could be possible towards 12Z which could affect KLBT/KILM but confidence was too low to include in the TAFs. Otherwise, skies should remain clear with some high clouds Tues. NE winds prevail with a seabreeze moving through the coastal terminals during the afternoon/evening.

Extended Outlook...Confidence is high in mostly VFR conditions prevailing through Thu, although can't rule out mainly late night/early morning low clouds and/or fog mid week as low-level moisture increases.

MARINE
Through Tuesday...Very large and relatively stationary high well to our north to keep winds out of the NE locally. Wind speeds sub- advisory and headline-worthy 6 ft seas from the long fetch NE flow generally stay just outside of 20 nm forecast zones. A small portion of NC zones may attain 6 ft later tomorrow but did not have enough confidence to raise advisory.

Tuesday Night through Saturday...Consistent northeasterly winds at 10-15kts continue through early Friday evening, with gusts up to 20- 23kts. Seas mostly 2-4ft, with a few 5ft waves spotted 20nm offshore. Cold front moves through Friday night, where winds will back to the northwest through Saturday, remaining at similar speeds. Seas remain relatively consistent at 2-4ft, while the 5ft waves seem to vanish. Main swell out of the ENE at 8-10 seconds.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
The higher than normal astronomical tides due to the full moon and lunar perigee combined with onshore (east/northeast) swells and enhanced north/northeast winds (which enhance Ekman transport toward the coast) will lead to minor tidal flooding over the next couple of days across coastal southeast North Carolina and northeast South Carolina, as well as along the lower Cape Fear River from around downtown Wilmington south toward the coast. Saltwater inundation is most likely during the morning high tides at the coast but should continue during the morning and evening high tides in tidal portions of the Cape Fear River.

The prolonged high tides and elevated surf could lead to some beach erosion as well.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...None.
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ107.
MARINE...None.

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Southport
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Mon -- 04:48 AM EDT     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:40 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 11:05 AM EDT     5.38 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:25 PM EDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:01 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:27 PM EDT     4.50 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Southport, Cape Fear River, North Carolina, Tide feet

Cape Fear
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Mon -- 04:09 AM EDT     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:06 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:32 AM EDT     5.79 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:40 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 04:46 PM EDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:01 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:54 PM EDT     4.84 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Cape Fear, North Carolina, Tide feet

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