Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Southport, NC

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
Surface high remains wedged in from the NE at this time. Later this evening a coastal trough will develop off the GA coast initially, spreading NE up the coast as the night progresses.
Model guidance is showing some aggressive low level moistening as this occurs. Additionally the mid levels will moisten in isentropic upglide. The only layer that will dry tonight is the current widespread cirrus moisture (sorry, no repeat of this morning's extremely colorful sunrise). By Sunday as the trough moves ashore the clouds should break to a degree whereas inland locales will remain quite cloudy. Between the additional insolation and the southerly flow the coast should warm well into the 60s especially NC. Inland locales will be capped in the low 60s (or lower) with the extra cloud cover and delayed wind shift.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
A weak cold front will move off the coast Sunday night with primarily a slight chance of showers. High pressure building in from the north during Monday will support below normal temperatures with some temporary drying. During Monday night a coastal trough/warm front will develop and shift toward the coast ahead of low pressure expected to move this direction from the Gulf Coast. Rain chances will ramp up considerably during Monday night as isentropic lift and theta-e advection become focused across the area.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
An active day is expected as low pressure moves up the coastal plains of the Carolinas. Strong return flow ahead of the low will help surge very high PWATs across the forecast area, possibly exceeding 1.6 inches. Low-level convergence and ample moisture support high rain chances during Tuesday. In addition, 925 mb winds are shown to strengthen to 50-60 kt Tuesday morning into early Tuesday afternoon implying at least some potential for strong thunderstorms, especially for coastal areas.

The aforementioned low will quickly exit the area by Tuesday evening and the column will become very dry in deepening Wly flow through the column, especially above H85. After the warm- up during Tuesday, especially east of an Elizabethtown to Kingstree line, highs for Wednesday will only be in the 50s with lows potentially dropping to near freezing inland areas Wednesday night. Rain chances will increase again during Friday, but confidence is low at this time.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Generally VFR. The exception will be LBT where some clouds could lover to MVFR. ILM will have winds turn clockwise late tonight as a coastal trough moves ashore. The timing of this boundary at SC sites is less certain, possibly just after the TAF period.

Extended Forecast...A storm moving up the coast will bring lowered flight restrictions with low clouds possibly down to IFR, and rain leading to MVFR or worse visibility. ILM may also have LLWS on Tuesday in addition to possible gusty thunderstorms.

MARINE
Through Sunday...A coastal trough/warm front will develop overnight and move onshore turning wind clockwise from NE to SE while easing the wedge-induced gradient currently in place. This will allow wind speeds to decrease during the veer. Seas will continue to be choppy, dominated by the wind wave over the largely lacking swell, the wind change not helping but instead keeping wave faces on the steep side.

Sunday night through Thursday...A weak cold front will move across the waters Wednesday night allowing for increasing N-NEly flow late Sunday night into Monday. It's possible the outer coastal waters could reach marginal Small Craft conditions by early Monday morning, but the strongest winds are expected in Sly flow as low pressure moves by Tuesday. GEFS 34 kt probabilities are very low for in the Sly fetch, however with very strong 925mb winds passing over the waters could see some gusts to Gale force. May need a Gale Watch, especially if the trend is for stronger winds with subsequent model runs.

The aforementioned low will move quickly off the coast, offshore of DELMARVA by Tuesday evening. This will allow winds to turn Wly then Nly by Wednesday morning gradually decreasing through Thursday as high pressure settles over the Carolinas. A few showers are possible with the initial front moving through Sunday night, but they are expected to become numerous on Tuesday along with the potential for some strong thunderstorms.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.