Sunday, July5, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Southport, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:04AMSunset 8:28PM Sunday July 5, 2020 2:47 PM EDT (18:47 UTC) Moonrise 8:12PMMoonset 5:20AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 1208 Pm Edt Sun Jul 5 2020
This afternoon..S winds 5 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms after midnight.
Mon..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Wed..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Showers and tstms likely through the day, then a chance of showers and tstms through the night. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 1208 Pm Edt Sun Jul 5 2020
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Weak high pressure will bring light wind much of the period. A weak frontal boundary across the waters will bring isolated tstms late today and again Monday. Low pressure along the gulf coast states will lift north early next week, bringing increasing rain chances and a greater coverage of tstm activity.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Southport, NC
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location: 33.92, -78.02     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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FXUS62 KILM 051635 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1234 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020

SYNOPSIS. Expect another very warm day today, with heat indices running between 93 and 98 degrees. A weak frontal boundary will bring isolated TSTMs over SE NC today and again Monday. A low pressure system rising from the Gulf Coast states, will bring increasing humidity and rain chances this upcoming week, and a greater coverage of TSTMs.

UPDATE/.

No radical modification at all, probability of measurable rainfall axis to run east to west across SE NC today and this evening, in vicinity of low-level convergence associated with the slight boundary. Inhibition still prevails beneath the influential dome of upper ridge, storing poor lapse rates aloft, but even so, storm tops could reach 25-30 kft. The effective shear environment is weak, so any strong wind gusts linked to a TSTM will remain localized adjacent to storm, as steering winds remain lazy about the region. Additional impacts include max-T, which looks to become suppressed near front by clouds and pcpn, thus putting a wrinkle in the fabric of blanketing 7/5 heat.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/. Ridging aloft to help curtail convection. Sfc front having dropped south, remains stalled just north of the FA. Overall, the westerlies have pulled back towards the north which basically dictates that it no longer has any support aloft to push this front any further southward. This stalled front and sea breeze will become a focus for convection to fire off of during this aftn and into the evening. POPs will be fcst in the low chance category today, 20-30 percent this aftn and evening, as mid-level subsidence and dry air keeps a lid on convection for the most part. Models indicate a broad upper low to take shape across the Gulf Coast States this period, and by the end of this period, Mon evening, the upper low begins to slowly lift to the NE. This will break down the weak ridging aloft across the FA by late Mon. Deep moisture will accompany the NE moving system and likely spread across the FA, from south to north, during Mon. Look for a slow increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms as the day progresses. Todays max temps will be a good 2 to 4 degrees hier than what occurs on Mon. Tonights lows, stayed close to a consensus of the 3 Model MOS guidance, NAM, GFS, European.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. High pops reside in the short term period as mid level heights fall ever so slightly and more importantly a weak boundary meanders in the area. Any forcing mechanism this time of the year with the inherent instability almost always produces widespread convection. Have maintained the high chance to even categorical values in some places. Always a challenge for cooler high temperatures as any sustained break in the clouds creates havoc but for now middle 80s will suffice with lower to middle 70s for lows.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Overall maintained the somewhat unsettled theme to the forecast but there seems to be some waning confidence in this scenario. The mid level low that eventually forms and or wobbles around Eastern North Carolina appears to wrap in some dry mid level air which could keep late some of Thursday and Friday convection challenged. Not to worry though as reinforcements are on the way via another mid level trough and cold front which take up residence along the east coast. Regarding temperatures, nothing really out of the ordinary.

AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. The HRRR is been pretty consistent in kicking off convection around 18-19Z, but only over our northern portion of the CWA. Most of the convection will end by 00Z, with convective debris overnight. Some light fog is possible around sunrise on Monday.

Extended Outlook . Increasing MVFR/IFR showers and thunderstorm coverage Mon night thru Thu. This the result of a low pressure system slowly lifting out of the Gulf of Mexico late Mon, then tracking across the Carolinas during the mid-week period of next week, and eventually up the Eastern Seaboard to the NE States by the upcoming weekend. Increased potential for early morning fog over locations that receive rainfall during the prior 24 hrs.

MARINE. Today thru Mon: Sfc cold front should remain stalled just north of the FA, in the vicinity of Cape Lookout. Morning winds generally will run NW 5 to 10 kt then back to the SW to S by this aftn around 10 kt, except nearshore 10 to 15 kt, where the sea breeze will develop and progress inland. For tonight thru Mon, the expansive Gulf Coast circulation, will begin to lift NE with the outer shield of cloudiness and pcpn pushing to the NC-SC border in the vicinity of Little River Inlet. The sfc pg will begin to tighten-some during Mon but with no dramatic increase to the winds other than possibly be 5 kt. Seas generally around 2 ft or within a 2 to 3 ft range. The ESE-SE 9+ second period swell to remain the dominant input to significant seas, and continue affecting the local waters thruout this period.

Mon Night thru Thu: Summertime pattern remains in place for the short and long term periods for the marine community. South to southeast winds of 10 knots or so will be in place. Significant seas will be around two feet with little in the way of a swell component. Guidance is showing some difference of opinion late in the period with the development of a low off the coast so as usual this will need to be monitored.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Minor Coastal Flooding likely . Along the banks of the Lower Cape Fear River from Wilmington southward. Minor flooding will occur within a 4 hour window centered on this evening's high tide, which occurs around 11 pm. For example, Water street and River Road, south of Wilmington NC, could observe drains back filling and spewing partially onto the local roads.

Minor Coastal Flooding likely during this Evening's High Tide. Locations included . The immediate coast between Surf City and Kure Beach. This includes low lying roadways bordering beaches, such as Canal Drive of Carolina Beach NC, sewer drains back-filling and spewing across roadways, as well as salt water marshes and sounds filling up and onto adjacent roadways and properties. Minor flooding will occur within a 4 hour window centered on this evening's high tide, which is around 830 pm.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. SC . None. NC . Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM to 10 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-108-110. Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT Monday for NCZ107. MARINE . None.



SYNOPSIS . 8 Update . Colby NEAR TERM . Ralf SHORT TERM . SHK LONG TERM . SHK AVIATION . 43 MARINE . Doug/Keebler TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . Hoehler


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41108 14 mi47 min 87°F1 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 22 mi39 min S 9.7 G 14 82°F 84°F1016 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 22 mi40 min 84°F1 ft
WLON7 22 mi53 min 93°F 83°F1015.8 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 24 mi53 min SSE 11 G 12 84°F 81°F1015.7 hPa
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 25 mi39 min SSW 7.8 G 9.7 84°F 84°F1016.5 hPa
41119 25 mi30 min 84°F1 ft
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 35 mi39 min SW 3.9 G 7.8 83°F 84°F1016.6 hPa
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 36 mi37 min Calm G 1.9 82°F 83°F1016.1 hPa74°F

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC3 mi52 minSSW 510.00 miFair89°F66°F47%1016.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSUT

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW5CalmSW6W4SW5SW5SW6SW7SW4W5SW4W5W4W3NW3NW5W7W4NW6W4SW5SW6S6SW6
1 day agoS6S5S4S3S3S4SW3SW4CalmCalmCalmW4NW3W4NW5NW5NW6NW5N5W6NW5SW8SW7SW8
2 days agoNW4SE3E6SE5SE5SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4NW5N4NW7N7N6N5S5

Tide / Current Tables for Southport, Cape Fear River, North Carolina
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Southport
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:44 AM EDT     Full Moon
Sun -- 03:06 AM EDT     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:06 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:19 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 08:58 AM EDT     3.96 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:06 PM EDT     -0.29 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:12 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 09:34 PM EDT     5.09 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.61.30.3-0.10.212.133.743.73210.1-0.3012.23.44.4554.5

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Fear, North Carolina
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Cape Fear
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:44 AM EDT     Full Moon
Sun -- 02:27 AM EDT     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:06 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:19 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 08:25 AM EDT     4.26 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:27 PM EDT     -0.31 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:01 PM EDT     5.48 feet High Tide
Sun -- 09:11 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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20.7-000.71.82.93.74.24.23.62.61.50.4-0.2-0.20.61.83.14.35.25.55.24.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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