Sunrise 6:37 AM   Sunset 7:45 PM Moonrise 12:10 PM   Moonset 2:07 AM

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AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 251 Am Edt Tue Apr 16 2024
Through 7 am - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: sw 3 ft at 5 seconds and se 2 ft at 9 seconds. Today - SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: sw 3 ft at 5 seconds and se 2 ft at 9 seconds. Tonight - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 5 seconds and se 2 ft at 9 seconds. Wed - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 4 seconds and se 2 ft at 9 seconds. Wed night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 4 seconds and se 2 ft at 9 seconds. Thu - SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 5 seconds and se 2 ft at 9 seconds. Thu night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Fri - N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Fri night - S winds 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Sat - W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Sat night - SW winds 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ200 251 Am Edt Tue Apr 16 2024
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles - High pressure offshore in the atlantic waters over the next several days, will produce an extended period of generally southwesterly wind.

FXUS62 KILM 160655 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 255 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will lead to unseasonably warm and quiet weather through midweek. A series of weak disturbances bring only a slight chance of showers towards later in the week. Rain chances may start to increase later in the weekend, with temperatures gradually starting to fall.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Another unseasonably warm day in store for today with high temps in the upper 80s. A weak front looks to drop down from the north later this morning, stalling across southeast NC before returning north tonight. Latest CAMs and hi-res guidance highlight a window of CAPE 500-1000 J/kg along the front late afternoon into early evening.
Combined with an approaching 500mb weak shortwave, there is a chance for a stray thunderstorm to move across far northern parts of the CWA Main hindrance to convective development is a decent mid level ridge nearby, with stronger subsidence to the south and offshore.
Therefore have capped pops at 15-20%, with any weakness in the ridge allowing for a storm to develop. Low temps tonight again above normal around 60F, with a chance for patchy fog across the Cape Fear region late tonight.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Bermuda High on Wed will give way to pre-frontal trough early Thu followed by a dry cold front Thu night. The trough may have some isolated showers with it during the predawn hours of Thu. Deep moisture is limited with precipitable water around 1.10". More importantly there is an abundance of dry air with the only area of RH greater than 80% above 23k ft. However, mid level lapse rates increase to over 7C/km after midnight and the surface based inversion is weak. The trough should be strong enough to force some parcels through the stable boundary layer. Additionally there will be a bit of support at 5h from a very weak shortwave trough. Not expecting a lot of rainfall from any showers that do develop, likely only a couple hundredths at most. Temperatures well above climo Wed and Wed night continue on Thu and Thu night despite the passage of the front. The delay in the arrival of the cooler air and the mixed boundary layer Thu night will contribute to the warm lows.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
The Thu night cold front stalls in the area for the end of the week as the flow aloft remains on the flat side. Brief increase in moisture and a weak, sheared shortwave later Fri help generate convection in the afternoon and evening. Better rain chances develop late Sat and continue into Sun as a strong southern stream shortwave moves east along the Gulf Coast, spreading ample moisture northward.
Abundant deep moisture, convergence along the frontal zone and mid level support/divergence ahead of the shortwave will increase rain chances for the weekend. Rain may linger through the first part of Monday, depending on how strong/amplified the southern stream system is. Temperatures above to well above climo to end the week then highs drop below climo Sun and Mon due to widespread cloud cover and rain. Lows Sun night and Mon night will end up near climo.

AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR with few to scattered high clouds through morning and again tonight. A weak front drops into the area, cross southeast NC, this morning, with light southwest winds south of the front and more variable winds along the front. With inland temps forecasted to push 90F again, sea breeze will kick in midday around 10-15 kts. A stray shower or thunderstorm may impact northern parts of the forecast area this afternoon and evening, but chances are low that they will move across ILM or LBT. Front lifts back north tonight, with potential for fog across Cape Fear region at the end of TAF period into Wednesday morning (ILM).

Extended Outlook...VFR is expected through the period.

MARINE
Through Tonight: Benign conditions continue across the local coastal waters through tonight, with 10-15 kt SSW winds prevailing. Exception to the prevailing winds will be across northern coastal waters this afternoon and evening, when a weak front is forecasted to drop south into the area and winds turn briefly southeastward.
Seas 2-3 ft today and tonight, combination of SSW wind wave and SE swell.

Wednesday through Saturday: Bermuda High will maintain southwest flow over the waters through Thu. Southwest winds will be 10-15kt with potential for speeds in excess of 15kt for a few hours Wed and Thu afternoon.
A cold front moving in from the northwest sets up a brief period of light offshore flow Thu night into Fri. The front lingers over the waters, keeping winds 10kt or less with varying direction. Seas will generally run 2-3 ft with more widespread 3 ft likely Wed and Thu afternoons. Seas will be a mix of a southerly wind wave and a southeast swell with the swell becoming more dominant as winds decrease and direction becomes more changeable late in the week.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Southport
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Tue -- 03:07 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 03:09 AM EDT     4.01 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:38 AM EDT     0.87 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:09 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:47 PM EDT     3.41 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:44 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:48 PM EDT     0.79 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Southport, Cape Fear River, North Carolina, Tide feet

Cape Fear
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Tue -- 02:36 AM EDT     4.32 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:06 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:59 AM EDT     0.94 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:09 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:14 PM EDT     3.67 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:44 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:09 PM EDT     0.85 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Cape Fear, North Carolina, Tide feet

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