Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Holden Beach, NC

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Key Messages/Highlights: *Hazards: Very low risk for a severe storm w/ damaging wind gusts and/or large hail, mainly near/east of I-95 late this aftn/eve *Rain Chances: Below normal today; near to above normal tonight *Temps: Above normal today; near to above normal tonight *Confidence: Moderate to High

Details: After a few showers and maybe a few rumbles of thunder early this AM, especially inland, dry conditions are expected for all through about mid afternoon. A strong cold front will then approach from the west later this afternoon before moving through tonight. Unseasonably warm/humid conditions ahead of the front will yield some instability and deep layer shear will certainly be sufficient for organized convection. However, the lack of strong instability/forcing should limit convective potential somewhat, especially severe storms. However, can't completely rule out a severe storm with damaging winds and/or large hail, mainly near/east of I-95. Otherwise, breezy SW winds today will shift to the NW tonight after the front passes. Temps will be well above normal today in the mid to upper 70s most locales with lows tonight falling back into the low to mid 40s inland and close to 50 at the coast late tonight.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Base of the trough axis will swing through the region Monday and Monday night. The surface front will be well offshore, and strong CAA will bring in the coldest air we've seen in several months.
Highs Monday only reach the mid-to-upper 50s across most of the area, while parts of the Pee Dee region may only see the lower 50s.
Stout WNW winds will make it feel like quite the blustery day, with gusts up to 20-25 mph being the norm. Monday night looks like a lock for a freeze across most of the area (think even the coast will get there). Freeze Watch issued this forecast cycle, valid from 10 PM EST Monday until 9 AM EST Tuesday. This will likely end the growing season for most, if not all, of the local forecast area.

Tuesday keeps the very chilly trend around, with most areas struggling to hit 50 degrees, under the same blustery gusts of 20-25 mph. Gradient winds finally start to loosen heading into Tuesday evening, backing slightly to the southwest overnight. Temperatures start to moderate a bit, with lows in the mid 30s this time around.
Still looks too dry and breezy for frost, so I don't think an advisory will be needed (if the growing season is still ongoing for anyone at that point).

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Quiet forecast on the way through the extended forecast period.
Temperatures continue to warm up, despite a dry cold front that moves through the area Wednesday night. Highs in the lower 60s Wednesday become the mid-to-upper 60s Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. Lows Wednesday night in the lower 40s, before that dry front brings them down into the upper 30s inland Thursday night. By Friday night, they bounce right back into the lower 40s.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Moderate to high confidence in mainly VFR conditions for most of the 06Z/09 TAF period. Low clouds (mostly MVFR w/ IFR possible) and maybe some showers should impact the inland terminals (KLBT/KFLO)
through around 15Z, then mainly VFR at all terminals outside of restrictions from showers/possible storms generally after 21Z.

Extended Outlook...Very low risk for MVFR cigs early Mon. Breezy winds expected Mon through Wed.

MARINE
Through Tonight...High confidence. A strong cold front will push through tonight bringing increasing winds but staying mostly 20 kt or less and the offshore trajectory will limit seas to 4 ft or less.
Thus, conditions are expected to stay below Small Craft Advisory criteria.

Monday through Thursday...Stout gradient northwesterly winds on the way Monday and Tuesday, with frequent gusts easily exceeding Small Craft Advisory thresholds. Winds are even pushing up towards gale force, and the trends might be pointing towards a Gale Watch by the next forecast cycle or two, but I didn't want to jump to conclusions just yet. Seas 3-5 ft at the coast, 6-7 ft out 20 nm from shore. By Tuesday evening, the gradient backs off a bit, taking us of Small Craft Advisory criteria temporarily, and winds back slightly to the southwest. Seas briefly fall to 2-4 ft. Gradient starts to tighten again by Wednesday morning ahead of another cold front (this one drier and weaker than the last). Advisory conditions look possible again Wednesday and Wednesday night, with seas up to 3-4 ft at the coast, 5-6 ft away from shore. After the front pulls further offshore, winds finally come down to less than 10 kts. Seas trend toward 1-2 ft.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
SC...Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
MARINE...None.