NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Widespread showers and storms develop along a front, producing heavy rain and potential flash flooding once again.

Heavy, tropical showers and embedded thunderstorms have been occurring across the northern Midlands and Pee Dee region for much of the morning. This has occurred as a slow moving surface boundary has sunk southward through the day. Scattered showers are now forming along and ahead of this as it pushes more into the central Midlands, which makes sense given the 2.0-2.2" PWs, SBCAPE 1000-2000 j/kg, and high surface dewpoints. Overall forcing is more concentrated today as the boundary sinks into the area, and as a surface front sinks southward ahead of an upper level trough that is pushing southeastward. As such, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are again expected to slowly develop this afternoon across the area. They should not be slow moving, though, helping to keep the flash flooding threat confined to areas that are able to see training rainfall. Highs are likely to end up in the upper 80s to around 90 this afternoon. Showers and storms should continue for a bit into the evening but are expected to diminish in coverage as the night goes on. The real front, with lower PW air behind it, is forecast to push south and west slowly after midnight. Temps may be able to get into the upper 60s in the far northern FA as dewpoints fall but don't count on it. Lows will likely be in the low to mid 70s again.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Key Message:

- Noticeably drier air moves into the region this weekend with lower rain chances.

Upper level trough will push through the mid-Atlantic, driving a frontal boundary south of the area. This will usher in drier air, with PW values dropping to less than 1.5" in the Columbia area by Saturday afternoon. The exception will be the CSRA where PW may remain closer to 1.7" much of the weekend. This should keep rain chances mainly south and west of the I-26 corridor, and any showers or thunderstorms will be isolated or scattered in nature.
Temperatures expected to be slightly below normal this weekend.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Key Message:

- A more typical summer weather pattern over the region with moisture returning to the region.

Upper ridge becomes more zonal into early next week as deeper moisture makes a return to the region. PW values return to just shy of 2" by Monday afternoon, with temperatures beginning a gradual warming trend. A few relatively weak mid-level shortwaves moving through the flow may be the main impetus for shower and thunderstorm development, which shouldn't be that difficult as temperatures return to normal. Overall, convection should be relatively unorganized with a typical summertime scattered rain chances.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR conditions have returned, but IFR cigs are expected again late tonight at CAE/CUB/OGB.

LIFR and IFR cigs from earlier have generally lifted into VFR cumulus across the forecast area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue developing this afternoon as a surface trough pushes southward through the area.
VCSH is sufficient for now, despite thunderstorms being distinctly possible through the afternoon. Expect showers to diminish in coverage and intensity after 03z tonight, with winds beginning to shift out of the north and northeast late tonight.
A front is forecast to push through slowly tonight, and this feature is forecast by HRRR/LAMP/NBM guidance to push stratus into the CAE/CUB/OGB between 09z and 14z, lifting thereafter.
Confidence is not high that this will make it to AGS/DNL, though, so have only trended towards it. There may be a shower or storm tomorrow, especially towards AGS/DNL in the afternoon, but it is expected to be after this period ends.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Drier air is expected to push into the region Sat/Sun with a decrease in rain chances both days.
Summer-like pattern returns next week with daily chances for storms.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...None.
GA...None.