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FXUS62 KCAE 280553 AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 1253 AM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

SYNOPSIS
Temperatures will turn well below normal for both highs and lows through Wednesday. By Thursday, temps will start to warm up again before rain chances increase late this week and into the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/
Cold and dry advection continues at low levels across the area with strong northwest flow on the backside of the deep troughing to our north. PWAT's have fallen down below 0.3" and will drop further overnight into Tuesday morning. Surface dew points are much the same story, falling from the upper 30's down into mid 20's by early Tuesday. With a weakening but still tight pressure gradient, winds will remain elevated overnight within this cold advection regime, generally 4-6 mph out of the northwest. As seen in the water vapor imagery, some upper level moisture is beginning to return, thanks to the west- southwest oriented 250mb jet aloft; the right entrance of the 125 knot jet will slide directly overhead, helping build cloud cover a bit more despite dry air. Consequently, some cirrus will continue to push into the area late overnight. Given the elevated winds and strong advection, we were not expecting ideal radiational cooling anyway so this cirrus will not have too major of an impact on morning lows. So overall, cold dry advection will win out so steered slightly towards the cooler end of the NBM distribution with overnight lows in the upper 20's in the northern Midlands and in the low 30's elsewhere.

SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Cold and dry Tuesday with a strong upper trough over the eastern US a modified arctic airmass ridging into the forecast area. MOS guidance has trended cooler with high temperatures which is coming into agreement with blended guidance with highs in the low to mid- 50s. Some lingering high cirrus clouds in the southeastern forecast area will be pushed off to the south as another a reinforcing cold front moves into the area late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Strong radiational cooling conditions expected Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as low temperatures drop into the low to mid 20s with sheltered locations likely dropping into the upper teens. Wednesday will be similar to Tuesday with high pressure centered over the southeastern US and temperatures maybe a degree or two cooler. The upper trough axis will shift off to the east which will lead to heights moderating and as a result temperatures begin to moderate into Wednesday night. Still low temperatures expected in the upper 20s as the high remains over the area, promoting strong radiational cooling once again.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Weak upper ridging begins to develop in the wake of the departure of the upper trough as temperatures continue to moderate with limited spread in blended guidance through Friday and thus higher confidence in temperatures near seasonal average by Friday. A bit more clarity in precipitation forecast for Friday as a southern stream shortwave has trended a bit deeper in recent runs with surface low pressure trending farther south as ensemble runs become more closely clustered moving through the TN Valley. High moisture return has been consistent in recent runs and the NAEFS mean now points to PWATs exceeding the 90th percentile, especially in the NW forecast area. Still does appear that the best forcing remains to the north so may be a rainfall amounts will likely not be all that impressive but pops continue to trend up. This weekend, the upper pattern becomes more amplified with ensembles showing high probabilities that PWATs approach 1.5 inches in the southern forecast area. A front will get hung up over the area with synoptically little to push through to the east which will keep things unsettled, although the exact timing of shortwaves pushing over this boundary is difficult to discern this far out. Do expect a fairly active weekend, however, with plenty of chances for rain at times.
Otherwise upper ridging will support temperatures above average this weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR through the valid TAF period.

Broken high clouds through early morning associated with upper jet, then moving east of the area after 15z. Dry high pressure building over the area. Mixing in the boundary layer through 12z, so winds will stay up, west-northwest 5 to 10 knots.
Guidance is suggesting the winds may be gusty through early afternoon with west-northwest 10 kts with gusts to near 20 kts. Light and variable by 00z Wednesday.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts expected through Thursday. There is potential for restrictions in showers Friday through Saturday.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
SC...None.

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Bacon Bridge
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Tue -- 05:34 AM EST     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:02 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:27 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 11:00 AM EST     2.43 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:14 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:11 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:18 PM EST     0.10 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:20 PM EST     1.89 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bacon Bridge, Ashley River, South Carolina, Tide feet

Canaday Landing
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Tue -- 12:15 AM EST     0.93 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:03 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:45 AM EST     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:27 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 12:35 PM EST     1.10 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:15 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:13 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:28 PM EST     0.05 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Canaday Landing, south of, Edisto River, South Carolina, Tide feet

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