Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Red Bank, SC

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
Key Message(s):

- Calm weather expected through Friday morning.

Broad mid-upper level ridging continues to build into the region along with notable upper-level moisture seen in water vapor imagery. At the surface, following an afternoon of deep mixing, dry air lingers with dew points down into low 60's. This combination yields basically zero rain chances and persistent upper- level cloud cover should mitigate any fog potential.
Additionally this setup should yield on the warmer nights of the year so far, with low temps remaining in the low 70's.



SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Key Message(s):

- Warm and humid, especially on Friday.

- An approaching cold front could spark a few showers or thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday afternoon.

Upper ridge axis should be overhead at the start of the period, being replaced by zonal flow for the weekend. This keeps above normal temperatures in the forecast, especially on Friday when heat index values will be in the upper 90s to around 100 degrees. As we have been advertising, this is the first hot and humid day of the year and appropriate precautions should be taken if outdoors during peak heating on Friday. A weak cold front is slated to move into the FA on Saturday but guidance has not been excited about convective development. Regardless, the entire CWA is in a Marginal (1/5) risk for severe weather in the Day 3 SPC SWO and some of the guidance suggests conditions will be favorable for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms but the threat should be focused in the vicinity of the cold front, which would serve as the primary trigger for convection. Guidance such as the HRRR and NAMNest indicates showers and thunderstorms will be diminishing as the front moves in on Saturday so PoPs are highest in the north and west.
Trends will be monitored to see if the severe threat manifests on Saturday. Regardless, southwest winds may be gusty at times during the daytime hours ahead of the front, especially on area lakes. The cold front may stall in our area for Sunday and could once again trigger a few showers or thunderstorms, this time favoring the southern Midlands and CSRA. In the absence of any upper level forcing, the threat of severe weather should be even lower Sunday afternoon.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Key Message(s):

- Hot and humid conditions continue, with showers and thunderstorms possibly developing middle of next week as a cold front approaches the area.

As an upper-lvl low situated over the High Plains continues to make its advancement east-northward towards the region, an associated frontal boundary will linger nearby. A chance of a couple isolated showers could be possible on Monday and Tuesday afternoon as this front meanders back and forth over the region. As this upper-lvl low inches closer, a more impressive setup looks likely on Wednesday and Thursday, bringing a better chance at some showers and thunderstorms to develop. A cold front could possibly pass through on Thursday morning, however confidence remains low on the timing of this being so far out into the forecast. Above normal temperatures should prevail through the extended period.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through the forecast period.

Winds will quickly diminish with the loss of daytime heating, resulting in light/variable winds at all terminals through the overnight hours. Westerly winds will increase by mid-morning Friday, taking on a bit more of a southwesterly component later in the day, with speeds generally 10 kt or less.

High level cirrus clouds spilling over the upper ridge axis to the west will increase in coverage tonight through Friday, but limited moisture in the lower levels of the atmosphere should prevent any nighttime stratus or afternoon cumulus from developing. In addition, the high clouds and dry low levels should also limit any fog development so no mention in the TAFs.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Mainly VFR conditions expected through the period barring low end chances for showers and thunderstorm each afternoon which could cause brief restrictions.

HYDROLOGY
Earlier releases upstream caused the Saluda River at Chappells to rise a second time into minor flood stage this afternoon, but the river has since receded below action stage and the warning should be able to be cancelled later tonight. The North Fork of the Edisto River has crested and fallen below flood stage and the Flood Warning was cancelled earlier today, though we will keep the warning up downstream at Branchville where the river appears close to cresting.
Elsewhere, the Congaree River points are steady or slowly falling.
The river has likely crested and should gradually fall below flood stage later this week.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...None.
GA...None.