Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Utting, AZ

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread breezy to locally windy conditions today and tonight, with peak wind up to 25 to 35 miles per hour most places and 40 plus miles per hour in parts of Southeast California.

- A Red Flag Warning remains in effect through this evening for higher terrain areas north and east of Phoenix, with widespread elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions due to very dry and breezy conditions to go with dry fuels.

- Temperatures cool to below normal Sunday and remain below normal through at least the first half of next week.

- Slight chances (10 to 20 percent) for afternoon storms in parts of Southern Gila County beginning Tuesday.

DISCUSSION
Persistent dry southwest flow will continue across the Desert Southwest while high pressure ridging remains well off to the east, in central and eastern portions of the CONUS. WV satellite shows a low pressure system continues to spin over the PacNW, also aiding in the southwest flow. A shortwave trough seen on the western flank of the low early this morning will help dig the longwave trough closer to the Desert Southwest today and by doing so will tighten the pressure gradient, leading to slightly stronger winds than yesterday. Widespread elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected again today as a result. The high pressure ridge will also strengthen today and shift more over the eastern CONUS, leading to significant heat across the Midwest, Mississippi Valley and Northeast. In a long- wave pattern like this during the summer, when the eastern CONUS is roasting under a 596-598dam high, the west is seeing a reprieve. Negative 500mb height anomalies will spread across the Desert Southwest this weekend leading to a downtrend in temperatures.

Widespread breezy to locally windy conditions this afternoon through this evening and the widespread elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions will be the primary sensible weather impact today. The latest HRRR supports high probabilities (>70%) for peak wind gusts in excess of 25 mph this afternoon and evening across Southern AZ and SoCal. While peak gusts are expected to stay below 35 mph for most areas, there are high probabilities for advisory- level wind gusts (>40 mph) this evening/tonight in western Imperial County CA with westerly downsloping winds. A Wind Advisory is in effect for this area and while the advised area does not include the Imperial Valley at this time this does not mean that winds may not reach advisory level. Confidence is not quite high enough at this time. There is also potential for strong 40+ mph northwesterly winds tonight across Eastern Riverside County CA behind a dry cold front, coinciding with the passing of the shortwave trough to the north, but these stronger winds are most likely to occur over the higher mountain peaks/ridges, and considering less mixing during the overnight hours a Wind Advisory was not issued. Winds region- wide will be much lighter on Sunday as the pressure gradient relaxes with the shortwave trough lifting away.

Temperatures today are forecast to be right around to slightly below seasonal levels, with lower desert highs around 100-105F.
Sunday is then forecast to be the coolest day in the 7-day forecast, as the aforementioned shortwave trough swings by to the north tonight and 500mb heights hit a minimum around 582-584dam (around the 25th percentile for this time of year). Most lower desert locations will struggle to reach 100 degrees Sunday afternoon which is not very common for late-June. Phoenix has only observed a sub-100 degree high 7 times between June 20th-30th during the 2000s (Yuma 11 times & El Centro 13 times). While not as hot as the previous several days, the forecast temperatures will result in widespread Minor HeatRisk and with ample sunshine, everyone should continue to exercise caution and protect themselves and others from the heat, especially with any long exposure.

Heading into early next week the broad troughing across the west will linger, and continue the dry southwest flow, but will gradually weaken and mostly break down by the middle of the week.
By the second half of next week the mid-level synoptic flow pattern across the Desert Southwest and Northern Mexico is shown by global models to become pretty weak and disorganized. Most global ensembles have mean 500mb winds dropping from 20-30 kts to around 10 kts. For the 500mb wind direction, the ensemble spread increases considerably, but still with a mean S-SW component.
This pattern outlook will allow for a gradual rise in 500mb heights, and thus a gradual rise in temperatures with above normal temperatures and Moderate HeatRisk making a return by the end of next week.

Where is the monsoon moisture? Global ensemble members continue to show a battle between dry air over most of AZ and more moist monsoon conditions to the east and southeast beginning around Tuesday. The aforementioned trough across the west will work to keep dry air and southwesterly flow in place, at least over SE CA and western AZ. But, some deep moisture over northern Mexico looks to make its way into SE AZ. This moisture, in combination with upper level support, could lead to some isolated to scattered thunderstorms beginning around Tuesday. This supports some low end chances for showers and storms as far north as the White Mountains and into Gila County. Global ensemble members show this moisture hanging around through the week, which the current NBM is showing as daily low-end thunderstorm chances for this area, while the rest of AZ will more likely have to wait until at least early-July. Still, it will be worth paying more attention to the thunderstorm activity to the east toward the end of the week when the mid-level flow weakens. Perhaps storm activity will trend a little closer and thunderstorm outflows will start making a push toward the Valley.

AVIATION
Updated at 1125Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, KDVT: Some gusty southwesterly winds during the afternoon/early evening hours Saturday will be the main aviation weather issue under clear skies. SOutheasterly winds with speeds generally aob 10 kt will continue through the mid-morning. By the mid-morning, winds will be come southerly and pick up speed into the low teens with some occasional gusts into the upper teens possible by the late morning hours. Then, during the early afternoon winds will become southwesterly with gusts of 20-25 kt continue through sunset.
Winds will then go back southeasterly overnight, with speeds aob 10 kt.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Gusty winds will continue to be the main aviation weather concern once again during the afternoon/early evening hours Saturday under clear skies. Winds at KIPL will be mainly out of the west through most of the period while winds at KBLH will fluctuate between the south and southwest. Wind speeds through the mid-morning will continue to be under 15 kts before speeds increase during the late morning and afternoon/evening hours with peak gusts upwards of 25-30 kts, with the potential that KIPL occasionally exceeds 30 kts. Some reduced visibilities, but likely remaining P6SM, due to haze from lofted smoke from a wildfire in Mexico will still be possible at times at KIPL.

FIRE WEATHER
A Red Flag Warning remains in effect through this evening across the higher terrain to the north and east of Phoenix where periods of critical conditions will exist. Winds will be 5-10 mph higher this afternoon and evening across all districts, compared to yesterday. This will lead to widespread elevated fire weather conditions and even periods of locally critical conditions elsewhere, most notably in western Maricopa, central Pinal, eastern Riverside, and northwest La Paz counties. Expect a combination of low humidities from 5 to 15 percent, dry fuels with ERCs around the 97th percentile, and late day gusty winds that will range from 25-35 mph most places 35-45 mph in western Imperial County. Sunday through next week winds will be much lighter, with more typical afternoon breezes, and thus there will be less wildfire spreading concerns. Conditions though will remain dry, with daily minRHs mostly at or below 15% with overnight recoveries only into the 20 to 40 percent range. Near to below normal temperatures are expected today through the first half of next week.

PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ133.

CA...Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for CAZ562-566.