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PZZ655 Inner Waters From Point Mugu To San Mateo Pt. Ca Including Santa Catalina And Anacapa Islands- 855 Pm Pdt Tue Oct 3 2023
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 3 ft at 14 seconds and S 2 ft at 12 seconds.
Wed..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 3 ft at 9 seconds and S 2 ft at 11 seconds.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 3 ft at 10 seconds and S 2 ft at 11 seconds.
Thu..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 3 ft at 9 seconds and S 2 ft at 11 seconds.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 3 ft at 8 seconds and S 2 ft at 11 seconds.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 3 ft at 8 seconds and S 2 ft at 11 seconds.
Fri night..W winds 10 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 ft and S 2 ft.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 3 ft and S 3 ft. Patchy fog.

PZZ600 855 Pm Pdt Tue Oct 3 2023
synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park...at 03z, or 8 pm pdt, a 1030 mb surface high was centered about 900 nm nw of point conception and a 1012 mb surface low was centered near needles, ca. The high will strengthen and move N well off the pac nw coast through Wed night, while a weak thermal trough develops along the southern ca coast during the night and morning hours.

FXUS66 KLOX 040358 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 858 PM PDT Tue Oct 3 2023

SYNOPSIS
03/221 AM.

A warming and drying trend will continue to take place through Thursday as offshore flow establishes beneath strong high pressure aloft. A weak to moderate Santa Ana wind event is possible for Wednesday through Friday with temperatures well above normal. Some cooling is expected over the weekend.

.SHORT TERM (TUE-FRI)...03/848 PM.

***UPDATE***

Clear skies, building high pressure, and offshore flow allowed for temperatures to trend 8-15 degrees warmer over much of the area today. Highs in the upper 70s to 80s were common, with the warmest spots in the valleys. The LAX-DAG offshore pressure gradient peaked at -1.5 mb during the mid-morning, and remained offshore all day. This lead to light offshore winds in the morning, and a more limited afternoon seabreeze.

Tonight, things are fairly quiet throughout the area, save for some locally gusty northwest winds over the higher terrain near Point Conception. Clouds have advected into the northern coastal waters, and may affect some coastal areas early on tonight before the offshore winds start up. Currently, still looking like a pretty borderline wind advisory levels weak Santa Ana Wednesday morning, with gusts in the 20-40 mph range and the offshore LAX- DAG offshore gradient peaking around -1.5 mb. Offshore winds should subside into the evening. Thursday will be a repeat of Wednesday, however, the LAX-DAG offshore gradient comes in around -2.0 mb. There is minimal upper level support Wednesday and Thursday, and although weak Santa Ana winds linger into Friday morning, upper level support decreases so wind speeds should be below advisory levels. Along with the weak Santa Ana winds, there will be some weak Santa Lucia winds each morning across San Luis Obispo county, but speeds will remain below advisory levels.

The forecast looks on track in terms of winds and temperatures growing hot over the next few days. However, did add clouds to portions of the Central Coast for the earlier part of this evening. Offshore winds will likely limit marine layer clouds, but will need to watch to see if some clouds should be added back to the coastal waters.

***From Previous Discussion***

As for temperatures, the combination of building H5 heights and thicknesses as well as increasing offshore surface gradients will bring a noticeable warming trend to the area, especially west of the mountains. Temperatures across the coastal plain will likely peak on Thursday (mid 80s to mid 90s), but will peak on Friday (highs mid 90s to around 100) across the coastal valleys due to the weakening offshore flow.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...03/118 PM.

For the extended period, 12Z models continue to exhibit decent synoptic agreement. At upper levels, ridge gradually weakens through the weekend and into early next week. Near the surface, offshore flow weakens and onshore flow returns.

Forecast-wise, it looks to be pretty benign through the extended period. Offshore winds will be weak, so no advisory issues are anticipated Saturday through Tuesday. Skies should remain generally clear although stratus/fog should begin to reestablish on Sunday morning and continue to expand each night Monday and Tuesday. As for temperatures, with the upper ridge weakening and onshore flow returning, will anticipate a gradual cooling trend for all areas into early next week.

AVIATION
04/0155Z.

At 0033Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 800 feet deep. The top of the inversion was at 1500 feet with a temperature of 22 deg C.

Moderate confidence in TAF package. There is a 50% chance of north winds up to 12 kt for KVNY from after 16Z, . There is a 20% chance of a couple hours of MVFR-IFR cigs at KSMX, KOXR, KLAX, and KLGB, from 11Z-16Z.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in the TAF, with a 0% chance of a couple hours of BKN008 cigs from 11Z-16Z. There is a 40% chance of east winds from 08Z-16Z, however only a 10% chance of the east wind component being over 6 kts.

KBUR...High confidence in VFR conditions through the period.

MARINE
03/857 PM.

High confidence in the current forecast. Winds and seas are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels across all coastal waters through Sunday morning, then there is a 50% chance of SCA level winds in the outer waters starting Sunday afternoon.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

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El Segundo
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Tue -- 01:03 AM PDT     3.72 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:51 AM PDT     2.19 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:49 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:37 AM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 12:16 PM PDT     5.57 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:35 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:45 PM PDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:30 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

El Segundo, Santa Monica Bay, California, Tide feet

Santa Monica
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Tue -- 12:54 AM PDT     3.82 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:40 AM PDT     2.30 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:49 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:38 AM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 12:05 PM PDT     5.79 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:35 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:35 PM PDT     0.40 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:30 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Santa Monica, California, Tide feet

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