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PZZ655 Inner Waters From Point Mugu To San Mateo Pt. Ca Including Santa Catalina And Anacapa Islands- 218 Pm Pst Sun Dec 3 2023
This afternoon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 11 seconds.
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 10 seconds.
Mon..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming nw 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 10 seconds.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming N 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 11 seconds.
Tue..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 14 seconds.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming N 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 15 seconds.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 4 to 6 ft.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 5 to 7 ft.

PZZ600 218 Pm Pst Sun Dec 3 2023
synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park...at 22z or 2 pm pst, a 1028 mb high was centered 500 nm southwest of point conception and a 974 mb low was over the gulf of alaska. Gusty nw winds will affect the outer waters near and south of the channel islands through Monday.

FXUS66 KLOX 032338 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 338 PM PST Sun Dec 3 2023

SYNOPSIS
03/1258 PM.

Breezy north to northeast winds will continue through Tuesday or while afternoon high temperatures gradually warm under a ridge.
There is a slight chance of light rain Wednesday evening and Thursday, mostly along the central coast. The clouds and the weakening ridge will drop temperatures back to near normal before another round of Santa Ana winds arrive next weekend.

.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...03/128 PM.

Synoptically, the area is under an upper level ridge that is helping to guide an atmospheric river into northern CA and Oregon.
A shortwave feature develops into something resembling a cutoff low just to our south and persists from Monday into Wednesday but shouldn't affect much except possibly cloud cover. By late Wednesday the northern part of the area may begin to see some light rain associated with a trough extending down from a low in the Gulf of Alaska. Deterministic solutions keep the moisture to our north, but there are enough wet ensemble members to drive PoP to about 20%. This feature will then move ashore and drop into the great basin, setting up the gradient to drive another offshore event next weekend.

Ridging will cover Srn CA for the next three days with hgts rising to ~582 dam by Tuesday. There will be 2 to 4 mb of offshore flow from both the N and E through the period as a sfc high over the Great Basin will not move much at all. There will be no upper level or thermal support for the winds generated by the offshore flow. There will be 15 to 25 mph winds with isolated gusts to 35 mph each morning but nothing near advisory levels.

A chance of low clouds Monday morning in the Paso Robles area should be the extent of the low stratus while offshore flow keeps the low clouds at bay. Higher aloft, a few waves of cirrus clouds will roll over the area today creating partly to mostly cloudy skies. These higher clouds will linger overnight and keep low temps a bit warmer before clearing out Monday afternoon. Tuesday will be mostly clear.

The ridge, rising hgts and offshore flow all contribute to a three day warming trend. Look for 1 to 3 degrees of warming today and then 3 to 5 degrees of warming each day Mon and Tue. By Tuesday max temps across csts/vlys will mostly be in the mid 70s to lower 80s or 8 to 12 degrees above normal.

The ridge will flatten on Wednesday and zonal, westerly flow will prevail at the upper levels. At the surface our offshore flow will weaken to near neutral. The lowering hgts and much weaker offshore flow will send the temps quickly downward; look for 2 to 5 degrees of cooling everywhere save for the Antelope Valley which will not be too affected by the hgt falls.

There is still a slight chc (~20%) of some light showers across the SLO and most of SBA counties as well as the north slopes near the Kern county line on Wednesday, although models are keeping the heavier rain to our north. Rainfall amount, if any, should be less than a tenth of an inch.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...03/134 PM.

Clouds and light rain could persist all day Thursday and into early Friday for SLO and SBA Co, while the rest of the rest of the CWA will remain mostly clear. Look for 3 to 6 degrees of cooling Thursday and Friday, or more in the interior. Friday's max temps across the csts vlys will mostly be in the 60s. There should be a moderate 6 to 7 mb offshore push from the north and this will likely generate some gusty winds through the I-5 corridor and SBA south coast.

Next Saturday and Sunday look like they will have another ridge along with a weak or moderate (near advisory-strength) Santa Ana event.

AVIATION
03/2337Z.

At 2259Z at KLAX, the marine layer was around 500 feet deep with an inversion top at 750 feet with a maximum temperature of 17 C.

Moderate confidence in all TAFs. There is less confidence in winds for KSBP, KSMX, KOXR and KCMA, as NE winds may be off by 5-10 kts. There is a 30% chance of a few hours IFR conds at KPRB from 13Z-18Z.

KLAX...High confidence in cigs, moderate confidence in winds.
There is a 20% chance of a 6 kt east wind component during the early morning.

KBUR...Moderate to high confidence in TAF.

MARINE
03/248 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through Monday, there is a 60-80% chance of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds continuing across PZZ673/676. Will likely see seas at or above SCA levels on Tuesday morning and lasting into the weekend, with a slight dip below advisory levels possible Tuesday afternoon. On Wednesday afternoon, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds returning to SCA levels increasing to 50-60% on Thursday, with the highest chances near/South of Point Conception.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate confidence in current forecast. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) was issued for the inner waters north of Point Sal due to seas near 10 feet and some areas of gusty SCA level winds. On Monday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For Tuesday through Thursday, there is a 30-50% chance of SCA level seas, highest on Wednesday, but winds will remain below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Expecting isolated SCA level winds over far western portions of the Santa Barbara Channel this afternoon. Through Tuesday, there is a 20-30% chance of SCA level northeast winds from Ventura south to Santa Monica each night and morning, with high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels elsewhere. For Wednesday and Thursday, moderate to high confidence in wind and seas remaining below SCA levels, except for a 40% chance of SCA level winds in the western Santa Barbara Channel Thursday.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Monday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Tuesday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

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El Segundo
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Sun -- 03:43 AM PST     3.56 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:42 AM PST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:05 AM PST     3.32 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:50 AM PST     Moonset
Sun -- 12:35 PM PST     4.23 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:44 PM PST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:39 PM PST     0.58 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:41 PM PST     Moonrise
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El Segundo, Santa Monica Bay, California, Tide feet

Los Angeles Harbor
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Sun -- 03:34 AM PST     3.61 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:41 AM PST     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:54 AM PST     3.45 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:49 AM PST     Moonset
Sun -- 12:26 PM PST     4.31 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:44 PM PST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:28 PM PST     0.60 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:41 PM PST     Moonrise
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Los Angeles Harbor, Mormon Island, California, Tide feet

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