Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kure Beach, NC

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
Channeled vorticity aloft, a bit of mid level moisture, and steep lapse rates between 700-500 mb have led to patches of altocumulus streaking across the eastern Carolinas today. Isolated showers dropped a hundredth or two of an inch of rain across Pender County just after sunrise when mid level lapse rates were steeper but dry weather is forecast tonight into Saturday.

A weak secondary cold front currently extending across central North Carolina should sweep southeastward, shifting westerly winds to the north overnight. Under mainly clear skies lows should range from around 60 on the beaches to the lower 50s from Bennettsville and Dillon to Lumberton. Post-frontal dewpoints in the 40s will remain too low for fog.

Surface high pressure should spread across the area Saturday with light winds expected. A nearly classic seabreeze should develop and make good progress inland Saturday afternoon as inland highs reach the lower 80s.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
The large cut-off low centered over Newfoundland will shift to the east. Over the Southeast United States, a more west-to-west- northwesterly flow will be ongoing, and deep moisture will return from the south Saturday night with PW values of 1.5 to 1.75". A weakening shortwave on Sunday is forecasted to approach the area, bringing a good chance of showers and thunderstorms later in the Sunday afternoon and evening. Lows are expected to be in the lower 60s with a few 59-degree temps, mainly west of I95.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
The mid-level west-northwest flow will continue through mid- week, and then a developing cut-off low over the upper plains will shift to the Southeast United States on Sunday. A stationary front will remain to the south, and as low pressure develops along this front late Monday night, the front will be pushed northward and move off the coast late Tuesday and Wednesday. The deep moisture will range between 1.6 and 2.0 inches, and these elements will provide a good environment for showers and thunderstorms. As the developing cut- off low drops into the Southeast United States, the forecast uncertainty increases with a chance of showers and thunderstorms each day.

Temperatures will be below normal Monday and Tuesday, with a gradual warming trend by highs in the back into the 80s Wednesday through Friday.

AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR conditions will continue over the coming 24 hours. Westerly winds will gust to near 20 knots this afternoon. The seabreeze is affecting KMYR and KCRE, however increasing westerly wind should uncharacteristically push the seabreeze back offshore.
Confidence in the precise time of this shift to west winds at KMYR and KCRE is uncertain, but 20-21z appears to be reasonable.

Extended Outlook...A stalled front will return north next week bringing moderate to high potential for MVFR/IFR conditions in ceilings and showers/thunderstorms beginning Sunday afternoon.
At this time there are two windows that appear especially susceptible for aviation impacts: Sunday night into Monday morning, then again late Tuesday through Tuesday night.

MARINE
Through Saturday...Southwesterly winds should veer westerly by this evening ahead of a wind shift (essentially a weak cold front) that will push south across the coastal waters overnight. A sudden shift to north-northeasterly winds will occur with winds increasing to a solid 15 knots with higher gusts. The strongest period of winds is expected between Midnight and 6 AM Saturday. High pressure will quickly build eastward behind the front leading to light winds, shifting southerly with the seabreeze Saturday afternoon. Dry weather is expected to continue. Seas currently 2-3 feet will become choppier in the post frontal wind early Saturday morning, but should then subside to 1-2 feet by Saturday afternoon.

Saturday Night through Wednesday...
A stationary front will remain south of the area through Tuesday. A low develops along this front, which will move the front northward late Tuesday and east of the coastal waters on Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms are possible Sunday through Wednesday. The winds are expected to remain below 12 knots, with an increase in northeasterly flow of 15 knots late Monday. Seas of 1 to 2 feet on Saturday will gradually increase to 3 to 5 feet Monday night and slowly fall back to 2 to 3 feet on Wednesday.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM to 9 PM EDT this evening for NCZ107.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.