Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Varnam, NC

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Warm front has pushed north of the forecast area with weak low pressure along the boundary gradually becoming more defined across central NC. The low has resulted in winds veering from southeast to southwest the last few hours. The shift to southwest also brings about a surge of drier low level air.
Humidity at 925mb drops off significantly once the southwest winds develop. The low level drying and winds 5-10 mph have been able to clear out any fog or low clouds that have developed.

Broken line of convection moving into central NC this morning is associated with a pre-frontal trough. The line will be moving into a less favorable low level environment and the mid-level dynamics helping drive the storms will be shifting off to the north. Nearly all of the guidance (including the high resolution CAMs) show much of the convection collapsing before reaching the forecast area around daybreak. Would not be shocked if some remnant light rain/weakening showers move east-northeast across the region after entering the forecast area around 10Zish, but most areas will stay dry. This trough continues east across the region, moving offshore before any real instability can develop.
The only spots that may be able to develop any deeper convection would be along the immediate coast, where the pinned sea breeze and a narrow window of SBCAPE AOA 2500J/kg will coexist as the trough arrives. The catch will be how quickly does the mid-level environment become unsupportive of deeper convection. Mid-level subsidence starts increasing between 15z-18Z inland and around 18Z along the coast, so the window for convection to initiate and get going will be 16Z-19Z at best.

Approaching cold front and daytime heating both lead to an increase in the gradient today with southwest flow around 15 kt likely. Low level jet over 30kt this morning lifts north before mixing gets going, so not expecting much more than gusts around 20 kt in the afternoon. Temperatures well above normal today with clearing skies, subsidence and strong west to southwest flow. The sea breeze will hang close to the coast today and widespread 90s seem like a given with potential for mid 90s in some areas.

The cold front pushes offshore tonight with west-northwest winds developing as high pressure builds in. Cool and dry high pressure arriving overnight with winds helping to keep lows in the mid 60s despite 850 temps dropping 5C from 00Z to 12Z.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Dry and mostly sunny during the day Thursday with cold front well offshore by morning, with highs in the mid 80s. Mixing heights will be quite high, almost 9 kft, which could mix down gusts of 30+ mph Thursday afternoon. Deep mixing will also bring down low dewpoints, with minimum RH currently forecasting around 30%. A second frontal passage Thursday night, combined with PVA aloft rounding base of longwave trough over the Northeast, may produce a few light showers late Thursday with perhaps isolated thunder with meager elevated instability.

Quiet on Friday as surface high pressure briefly moves in and mid level ridge builds over the Southeast as low pressure system to the north moves off to the NE. Slightly cooler and drier Friday with highs around 80F. Lows around 60F Thursday night will drop to low to mid 50s Friday night, almost 10 degrees below normal.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Mid-level ridge, and associated subsidence, maintains control Saturday into (at least) early Sunday with persistent upper trough over the Eastern US finally exits into the Atlantic.
Below normal temps continue Saturday, with slight warming trend into Sunday. The next system looks to develop over the South on Sunday, moving across the Southeast early next week. Low confidence in timing and strength/position of the mid-level ridge continues to yield plenty of uncertainty in the forecast beginning late Sunday - for now, have increasing pops in the forecast for next Monday and Tuesday.

AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Warm front lifting north across the area is being followed by a weak trough, with winds veering from southeast to southwest once the weak surface trough passes. The shift to southwest brings about an increase in ceilings and visibility as drier air at 925mb spreads in from the southwest. Currently the wind shift is about to reach all SC terminals. Widespread VFR will return to all of SC within the next 1-2 hours and NC terminals will see the drier air/southwest winds arrive between 08Z-10Z.
The combination of drier low level air and wind will keep conditions VFR once VFR conditions develop.

Although an isolated shower or thunderstorm will be possible as a pre-frontal trough moves into the area during the morning hours, the environment is not favorable for storm development.
Confidence in VFR through 18Z is moderate increasing to high after 18Z. A cold front will move across the area this evening, shifting winds to northwest overnight. LLWS could be an issue tonight as strong winds just above the surface develop.

Extended Outlook...High confidence in VFR Wednesday night through Sunday.

MARINE
Through Tonight...South to southwest winds will increase over the waters today ahead of an approaching cold front. Brief period of southwest winds 15-20 kt possible this afternoon, but duration is short enough that seas will peak at 3-5 ft. An isolated gust to 25 kt is possible, but the more stable marine air will limit mixing of the strong wind aloft to the sea surface. No plans for a SCA today or tonight, but well away from shore conditions this afternoon and evening will approach headline criteria. Cold front moves offshore tonight, moving east of the waters by midnight. Offshore flow quickly weakens as the gradient relaxes and northwest flow will be 15 kt or less by Thu morning. After peaking at 3-5 ft late afternoon and evening seas quickly subside, dropping to 2-4 ft by daybreak Thu. Seas will be a mix of a dominant southerly wind wave and a southeast swell.

Thursday through Sunday...Northwest winds early Thursday, behind initial cold front, will once again turn southwesterly for Thursday afternoon as a second front approaches the area with wind speeds near 20 kts. Winds will return to west- northwesterly at 10-15 kts Thursday night through early Saturday. Brief high pressure will make winds lighter and more variable Saturday into Sunday before southerly winds develop late Sunday. Seas 2-4 ft Thursday and Thursday night lowers to 2-3 ft Friday & Saturday, and further improves to 1-2 ft Sunday.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ106-108.
SC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT this morning through this evening for SCZ054-056.
MARINE...None.