Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Malibu, CA

.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...09/116 PM.

High pressure continues to build over the region, however a persistent marine layer is so far keeping temperatures on the mild side. A slight offshore trend the next couple days will result in warming in most areas, peaking Monday, though the gradient trends will likely not be strong enough to wipe out the marine layer and coastal areas should remain on the cooler side.
The tricky part of the forecast will be the intermediate areas between the coast and the valleys. This includes the Downtown LA area as well most areas between 5 and 15 miles of the coast. The most likely scenario for these areas is highs mostly in the 70s to lower 80s, but if some of the bolder ensembles verify then the warmer air could push closer to the coast. For the valleys there is still high confidence with highs in the 90s, but the latest heat risk calculations indicate that they will be below heat advisory levels. Will re-evaluate Sunday, but unless gradients shift significantly offshore, high temperatures will not be hot enough to qualify.

On Tuesday high pressure will weaken and shift east as an upper low moves into the Pac NW. This will induce a strong onshore trend with all coast and coastal valley areas cooling off 5-10 degrees.
Desert areas will cool slightly but remain hot and dry, and with the big increase in onshore flow there is an elevated fire weather risk there.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...09/113 PM.

A cooler weather pattern with a return of morning low clouds and fog is favored to continue through at least next Thursday when the next upper low is expected to move through California and into the Great Basin. Following the low passage Thursday and Friday gusty north winds are expected to develop over the mountains and portions of southwest Santa Barbara county. Early indications suggest winds gusty to around 50 mph in those areas. Another warming trend will begin later next week into next weekend, mainly for valleys and other inland areas, with lower 90s returning to the valleys.

AVIATION
09/1735Z.

At 1625Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1800 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 3400 ft with a temperature of 21 C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for desert airfields (KPMD & KWJF).

Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. Timing of CIG/VSBY restrictions may be off +/- 3 hours and cig hgt by +/- 200 ft.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. MVFR CIGs around 015 should scatter 19-20Z Sat. 30% chance CIGs remain 20Z-02Z or at least periodic BKN conditions. Thereafter, CIGs expected lower to IFR 006 (+/- 200ft). Fair confidence in clearing time, but with 30% chance CIGs linger thru end of fcst pd. No significant east wind component expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. Arrival and clearing times of CIGs should be accurate within +/- 2 hours. Low clouds may be as low as OVC003.

MARINE
09/744 AM.

GALE Warnings go in effect this afternoon across the Outer Waters to the west and north of Point Conception. These conditions should last through the evening hours - may linger past midnight across PZZ670. Short period seas peaking 10 to 13 feet are expected through tonight. In addition, Strong Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
winds are expected nearshore along the Central coast during this timeframe.

Winds and seas should diminish throughout the day on Sunday. By Monday, conditions should be much calmer and are expected to remain below advisory levels through Tuesday. From Wednesday through Friday, chances for SCA level winds will increase each day especially across the outer waters.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for zones 645-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 2 PM PDT this afternoon for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Gale Warning in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).