Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Malibu, CA

.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...14/934 AM.

***UPDATE***

Temperatures across the region are trending warmer today as the departing trough has triggered a reversal in the pressure gradients this morning. Overall most areas today should end up 3-6 degrees warmer than yesterday with much lighter afternoon sea breezes. That won't quite get us back to normal temperatures but within 5 degrees or so.

Expecting to see more in the way of morning stratus Thursday morning but mainly confined to coastal LA County and the Central Coast. A little more warming expected across the valleys and inland areas Thursday afternoon but not much change at the coast.

***From Previous Discussion***

Weak troffing passing over the state combined with an increase in onshore flow will bring the marine layer roaring back on Friday.
Most of the csts and vlys will wake up to low clouds. In addition to the low clouds the trof will bring enough mid and high level clouds to create partly to mostly cloudy skies during the day. All of the clouds, lower hgts and stronger onshore flow will bring 3 to 5 degrees of cooling to most areas. Max temps will be in the 60s across the csts and only the lower to mid 70s in the vlys.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...14/315 AM.

A cool for mid May inside slider moves through the state on Saturday. Moderate to strong onshore flow develops to both the east and south. The trof and the onshore flow will rapidly deepen the marine layer and low clouds will xtnd beyond the vlys and into the mtns slopes and passes. The rapid lift may produce areas of drizzle as well. Clearing will be limited and it will be a mostly cloudy day for most areas. It will be a windy day wind advisory level gusts likely across the coasts and mtns and esp the Antelope Vly. The clouds and lowering hgts will bring 3 to 6 locally 8 degrees of cooling to the area and max temps will not escape the 60s. These max temps are 6 to 12 degrees blo normal.

Still not the best mdl agreement for Sunday. The upper low will move to the SE but there is a question about how fast with the EC faster/more progressive than the slower more westward GFS. There should be offshore trends and decent northerly flow aloft which should clear a good chunk of the low clouds away. There will be better clearing as well. Max temps should respond positively and jump 3 to 6 degrees (maybe a few less if the GFS verifies)

Better agreement for the Mon/Tue fcst with weak ridging moving in and decent offshore trends developing. Marine layer stratus should be greatly reduced or even eliminated. Max temps should jump 3 to 6 degrees Mon and 4 to 8 degrees Tue. Most coastal areas will be in the 70s on Tue with the vlys seeing readings in the 80s. These max temps are 3 to 6 degrees above normal.

AVIATION
14/1747Z.

Around 1649Z, there was no marine layer nor a clear inversion.

High confidence in TAFs for KPRB, KSBA, KOXR, KCMA, KPMD, and KWJF. There is a chance for IFR to MVFR cigs at KOXR (20%) and KCMA (10%) between 12Z and 18Z.

Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. Arrival time of cigs may be off by +/- 3 hours. There is a chance for KSMX (40%) and KSBP (20%) to see LIFR conds overnight. There is a 30% chance for brief IFR conds at KBUR/KVNY between 13Z and 16Z, but low confidence in minimum flight cat if cigs arrive. There is a 20% chance for IFR conds at KLAX/KSMO overnight.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Arrival of cigs may be as early as 08Z or as late as 13Z. There is a 20% chance for cigs 007-009 once cigs arrive. There is a 10% chance of an east wind component reaching 8 kts between 12Z and 18Z.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 30% chance for cigs between 005-012 between 13Z and 16Z, but low confidence in minimum flight cat if cigs arrive.

MARINE
14/847 AM.

For the Outer Waters, a combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
level winds and seas will continue into the weekend, with brief lulls possible in the early morning hours Thursday and Friday. For the weekend, Gale Force winds are possible (30-40 percent chance)
beginning Saturday and lasting into the overnight hours of Sunday into Monday. Seas will rapidly build during this period, with heights peaking at 16 feet. Then, winds and seas will decrease, but still remain near or above SCA levels through early next week.

For the Inner Waters along the Central Coast, SCA level winds are likely (60-80% chance) during the afternoon through late night hours today through Friday. Then, a combination of SCA winds and seas will occur Saturday through late Sunday, with seas approaching 14 feet Sunday. There is a 20-30 percent chance for Gales during this time. For early next week, SCA level winds are likely in the afternoon and evening hours (50-60 percent chance).
Seas are less likely to hit SCA thresholds (20-30 percent chance).

For the Inner Waters south of Point Concpetion, SCA level winds along with choppy seas will fill much of the Santa Barbara Channel this afternoon through late tonight. There is a 40-50 percent chance for SCA winds in the western half of the channel in the afternoon and evening hours Thursday and Friday. Then, SCA level winds will occur across the entirety of the waters south of Point Conception Saturday afternoon through late Sunday. Seas will build to 10 feet as early as Saturday evening and continue into late Sunday. There is a 30-40 percent chance for Gales during this period. Conditions will improve Monday and Tuesday, but there is a 20-40 percent chance for SCA winds in the western half of the SB Channel in the afternoon and evening hours.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday for zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).