Thursday, December12, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Malibu, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 4:47PM Wednesday December 11, 2019 9:33 PM PST (05:33 UTC) Moonrise 5:40PMMoonset 7:12AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ655 Inner Waters From Point Mugu To San Mateo Pt. Ca Including Santa Catalina And Anacapa Islands- 835 Pm Pst Wed Dec 11 2019
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt early, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 3 ft at 9 seconds and S 2 ft at 15 seconds.
Thu..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 9 seconds.
Thu night..W winds 10 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 8 seconds.
Fri..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 17 seconds.
Fri night..Western portion, W winds 10 to 15 kt becoming nw 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Elsewhere, sw winds 5 to 10 kt becoming variable 10 kt or less after midnight. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. W swell 4 to 5 ft at 9 seconds.
Sat..Western portion, nw winds 20 to 30 kt. Elsewhere, winds variable 10 kt or less becoming 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Combined seas 5 to 7 ft dominant period 7 seconds.
Sat night..Western portion, nw winds 25 to 30 kt. Elsewhere, nw winds 20 to 25 kt becoming 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Combined seas 7 to 10 ft dominant period 8 seconds.
Sun..N winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Combined seas 5 to 7 ft.
Mon..NE winds 15 to 25 kt. Combined seas 3 to 5 ft.
PZZ600 835 Pm Pst Wed Dec 11 2019
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 03z or 7 pm pst, a 1025 mb high pressure center was 400 nm southwest of point conception and will strengthen through the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Malibu, CA
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location: 33.98, -118.72     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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FXUS66 KLOX 120507 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 907 PM PST Wed Dec 11 2019

SYNOPSIS. 11/907 PM.

Temperatures will warm through Friday as the region remains dry with periods of sunshine. A large westerly swell will bring high waves and surf from Thursday through the weekend, and light rain is expected Saturday in mountain areas. Areas of gusty winds will persist through the weekend and Santa Ana winds are expected to develop Monday of next week.

SHORT TERM (WED-SAT). 11/837 PM.

***UPDATE***

Overall, another quiet evening across the district. Latest satellite shows plentiful mid to high clouds moving over the area which will keep skies partly to mostly cloudy tonight. With respect to stratus, weak offshore flow should keep most areas stratus-free overnight. The only exception may be the interior valleys of SLO county and the Central Coast where patchy low clouds/dense fog will be possible later tonight. A stray light shower would not be out of the question across far northern SLO county overnight, but not enough concern for measurable rainfall to include in the forecast at this time.

As for winds, do not anticipate any significant issues overnight. Current observations indicate some gusty northerly winds across the mountains and SBA South Coast, but winds are generally below advisory levels. Overnight, expect the northerly flow to continue then shift more northeasterly towards morning. However, given weak gradients and limited upper level support, do not anticipate any widespread advisory-level north to northeast winds.

Current forecast looks to have very good handle on the immediate short term. So, no updates are planned at this time.

***From Previous Discussion***

Building high pressure aloft and light offshore flow through Friday will lead to significant warming the next couple days, peaking Friday with highs in the mid to even upper 70s in some of the warmer valleys of LA/Ventura Counties. These will be the warmest temps we've seen since before Thanksgiving and likely the warmest we'll see in the next week to ten days at least. High clouds will increase tonight into Thursday morning but should clear out for plenty of sunshine both days.

There will be some locally gusty northerly winds in the mountains and in srn SB County but speeds should be below advisory levels.

The ridge will break down Saturday and allow a weak front to pass through. Given the path this system is taking it doesn't have much moisture with it but as the moisture banks up against the north facing mountains from the Grapevine through southeast SLO County light showers are possible Saturday with snow levels possibly lowering to around 4000' (Grapevine level) by late Saturday night. Advisory level northwest winds possible Friday night into Saturday for the Grapevine and possible srn SB County and the Antelope Valley. Temperatures will cool several degrees Saturday as gradients turn onshore and cooler air aloft arrives with the front.

LONG TERM (SUN-WED). 11/152 PM.

Gusty northerly winds will continue in the mountains and srn SB County Sunday before shifting to northeast Monday and Tuesday. The ECMWF is much stronger with the offshore flow than the GFS and seems overdone given the more progressive upper level pattern and the EC ensembles. So breezy offshore winds are possible both days but below advisory levels. The air mass is much cooler than it will be this Thu/Fri so even with the offshore flow temps will still mostly be in the 60s at lower elevations which is near seasonal norms.

Models in better agreement Tue night into Wed now both showing a weak trough coming through. Not much moisture going for it and only a small chance of showers, better north of Pt Conception.

AVIATION. 11/2308Z.

At 2245Z, the marine inversion at KLAX was based at 700 feet. The top of the inversion was 1600 feet with a temperature of 18 degrees Celsius.

Overall, moderate to high confidence in 00Z TAF package. North of Point Conception, there is a 60% chance of VLIFR conditions at KPRB and a 50% chance of VLIFR conditions at KSMX. South of Point Conception, conditions are expected to remain VFR through TAF period.

KLAX . High confidence in 00Z TAF as VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. There is a 10% chance of IFR/LIFR conditions 10Z-16Z. No significant easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR . High confidence in 00Z TAF as VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.

MARINE. 11/836 PM.

For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds will continue across PZZ673/676 through Thursday night then spread into PZZ670 on Friday. The SCA level winds will continue across all the Outer Waters through Sunday with a 50% chance of Gale force winds Saturday and Sunday. With the gusty winds, short-period, choppy seas will be likely.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. There is a 50% chance of SCA level winds Thursday and Friday then a 70% chance of SCA level winds on Saturday and Sunday (with a 20% chance of Gale force gusts Saturday and Sunday). With the gusty winds, short-period, choppy seas will be likely.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. There is a 30% chance of SCA level winds across the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel Thursday and Friday. From Friday night through Sunday, there is an 80% chance of SCA level northwest winds (especially across western sections) and a 30% chance of Gale force gusts. On Monday, the winds will shift to the northeast with a 50% chance of SCA level northeast winds on Monday.

A large and long period west to northwest swell will impact the coastal waters Thursday through Sunday, resulting in hazardous sea conditions and large breaking waves near shore, especially with a large short period wind swell on top of that. Breaking waves at the Morro Bay and Ventura Harbor entrances are possible.

BEACHES. 11/836 PM.

A large long-period west to northwest swell will fill into the coastal waters of southwest California Thursday, peak on Friday, then slowly diminish over the weekend. Surf will likely peak between 12 and 16 feet and 6 to 10 feet over the southern waters. Will issue the High Surf Advisory for the Central Coast today, but will hold off on the southern beaches until tomorrow (since it starts later). Strong rip currents and dangerous breaking waves are expected.

With high tides around 6.5 feet Friday and Saturday, minor coastal flooding is possible during the late morning high tides. Any coastal flooding impacts should be confined to the beaches, with flooding possible in the most vulnerable parking lots, bike paths, and walkways. A Coastal Flood Advisory may be issued tomorrow. There is a chance of more impactful flooding over vulnerable roads in the Ventura area.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CA . High Surf Advisory in effect from 6 AM Thursday to noon PST Monday for zones 34-35. (See LAXCFWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect from Thursday evening through Sunday morning for zones 39>41-87. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ . Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST Saturday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (SAT-WED).

High surf is likely and minor coastal flooding is possible this weekend at area beaches. Strong northwest winds expected over the weekend in southern Santa Barbara County, and parts of LA/Ventura Counties.



PUBLIC . MW AVIATION . RAT MARINE . RAT BEACHES . Kittell SYNOPSIS . Phillips

weather.gov/losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46221 - Santa Monica Bay, CA (028) 10 mi37 min 62°F3 ft
ICAC1 - 9410840 - Santa Monica Pier 12 mi45 min ENE 6 G 8.9 59°F 62°F1021.8 hPa
46025 - Santa Monica Basin - 33NM West Southwest of Santa Monica, CA 23 mi33 min NW 16 G 19 63°F 62°F1021.7 hPa (+0.0)59°F
PXAC1 28 mi51 min SE 1.9 G 1.9
BAXC1 29 mi45 min ESE 4.1 G 4.1
OHBC1 - 9410660 - Los Angeles, CA 30 mi45 min 63°F1022.3 hPa
PSXC1 30 mi45 min SSE 2.9 G 2.9
AGXC1 31 mi45 min S 6 G 6
PFDC1 31 mi51 min S 2.9 G 4.1
PFXC1 31 mi45 min Calm G 1
46222 - San Pedro, CA (092) 33 mi40 min 63°F3 ft
PRJC1 33 mi45 min WNW 2.9 G 2.9
46256 34 mi33 min 62°F2 ft
46253 40 mi33 min 63°F2 ft
46251 47 mi33 min 62°F5 ft

Wind History for Santa Monica, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Santa Monica, Santa Monica Municipal Airport, CA15 mi42 minNNE 510.00 miFair56°F52°F87%1021.7 hPa
Los Angeles, Los Angeles International Airport, CA17 mi40 minE 410.00 miPartly Cloudy60°F53°F78%1021.6 hPa
Hawthorne, Hawthorne Municipal Airport, CA20 mi40 minE 410.00 miFair59°F52°F78%1021.8 hPa
Van Nuys, Van Nuys Airport, CA20 mi42 minW 310.00 miFair60°F44°F56%1021.3 hPa
Point Mugu, Naval Air Warfare Center, CA23 mi41 minVar 510.00 miPartly Cloudy54°F50°F87%1022.2 hPa
Los Angeles / USC Campus Downtown, CA23 mi41 minN 010.00 miFair60°F52°F75%1021.7 hPa
Burbank - Bob Hope Airport, CA24 mi40 minE 610.00 miFair56°F48°F75%1021.1 hPa
Torrance, Zamperini Field Airport, CA24 mi1.7 hrsN 010.00 miA Few Clouds57°F48°F72%1021.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSMO

Wind History from SMO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW3NW3N3N3E4E3N3N4NE4E4N3CalmS4S4SW5SW5SW5W5W5SW3S3CalmCalmNE5
1 day agoCalmN3N3N3E3N3NE3NE4CalmNE4CalmNE3E4E6E53SW5SW7SW54W3CalmCalmNW4
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3CalmSW5SW4S6CalmSW5W4W4CalmCalmNE4

Tide / Current Tables for Santa Monica, Municipal Pier, California (2)
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Santa Monica
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:14 AM PST     2.06 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:49 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:13 AM PST     Moonset
Thu -- 08:29 AM PST     6.28 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:48 PM PST     -0.82 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:45 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:28 PM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:15 PM PST     3.74 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.82.32.12.22.83.74.75.76.26.25.64.431.40.2-0.6-0.8-0.40.51.62.63.43.73.6

Tide / Current Tables for Santa Monica, California
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Santa Monica
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:10 AM PST     2.06 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:49 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:13 AM PST     Moonset
Thu -- 08:27 AM PST     6.39 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:43 PM PST     -0.83 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:45 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:28 PM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:15 PM PST     3.80 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.92.32.12.22.83.84.85.86.36.35.64.42.91.40.1-0.7-0.8-0.40.51.62.73.43.83.7

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Los Angeles, CA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.