Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Santa Monica, CA

.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...15/227 PM.

Another warm day today, and while no heat headlines are in place, people should be aware of the increased risks of heat illness today, especially when considering Father's Day plans. Make sure to drink plenty of hydrating fluids and seek shade when possible, if outdoors.

589 dam heights are currently over the area, stemming from a 594 dam upper high over New Mexico. A slight increase in offshore trends from the north combined with the slight rising heights and good clearing of clouds has allowed temperatures to increase to the high 90s to low 100s across the warmer valleys (Western San Fernando, AV, etc), 80s to 90s away from the coast (and including Southern Santa Barbara County thanks to Sundowner winds), and high 60s to 70s at the coasts.

Another round of gusty northerly winds are expected this evening across the Santa Ynez range and the SW SBA coast, with wind advisories in effect. The Southwestern SBA coast and Western portion of the Santa Ynez Range will continue to be gusty through tomorrow night, with a slight lull in winds expected during the morning hours on Monday.

There will be a slight increase of onshore trends as well as lowering heights on Monday, resulting in a little more low cloud coverage (especially across the Central Coast and the LA south coast). A cooling airmass and an earlier sea breeze will team up to lower max temps by 3 to 6 degrees. Even with this cooling, most max temps south of PT Conception will remain well above normal.
The only exception is the Santa Barbara south coast, where high temps will be delayed to the evening and near 90 degrees (similar to today) thanks to Sundowner winds.

Speaking of winds, the strongest north push will occur Monday night with wind advisories continuing for SW SBA. Additional advisories will likely be needed for the SE SBA coast, the I-5 corridor, and possibly for the Southern Salinas Valley, SBA Interior Mountains, and Ventura County Mountains.

Weak troffing moves over the area on Tuesday. It does not look like it will affect the weather that much. Marine layer stratus coverage will be similar to Monday's pattern. Max temps will not change too much with the notable exception of the SBA south coast where the lack of north flow will result in 8 to 12 degrees of cooling.

On Wednesday, even though the GFS deterministic suggests a trough will move through the area, all the LREF clusters and the ECMWF suggest a quick, weak ridge of high pressure will build back in on Wednesday (and this is what the official forecast goes with).
Though again, not much change in the weather is expected. A few degrees of warming is expected over the interior areas, with a few degrees of cooling on the coastal side of the mountains thanks to increased onshore flow. High temps on Wednesday will generally be 3 to 6 degrees above normal with coastal highs mostly in the 70s and valley highs in the 80s and lower 90s. Along with the increase in onshore flow, the marine layer stratus will expand back into the valleys south of SBA county, as well as along the Central Coast.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...15/229 PM.

Not much excitement in the extended portion of the forecast. After the ridge on Wednesday breaks down, weak troffing will follow through the weekend and result in a slight cooling trend each day. By Saturday most max temps will be 2 to 4 degrees below normal, with upper 60s to mid 70s for the coastal sections, and mostly lower and mid 80 degree readings in the valleys.

Look for a typical June night through morning low cloud pattern to develop covering the coasts and most valleys. There will be slow clearing across the valleys and especially the beaches, with little to no clearing at several west facing beaches.

The strong onshore push to the east will bring gusty afternoon southwesterly winds across interior sections, especially the Antelope Valley.

AVIATION
15/1734Z.

At 1652Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1100 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 2600 ft with a temperature of 27 C.

High confidence in TAFs for KPRB, KSBA, KOXR, KCMA, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD, and KWJF.

Low confidence in TAF for KSBP. There is a 40% chance for VFR conds to prevail through the period.

Moderate confidence in TAFs for KSMX, KSMO, KLAX, and KLGB. There is a 30% chance for IFR cigs at KSMO between 13Z and 17Z. There is a 30% chance KLAX remains VFR through the period.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 30% chance for VFR conds to prevail through the period, otherwise arrival of cigs may be as early as 10Z. There is a 15% chance an east wind component reach 8 kts between 13Z and 17Z.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF.

MARINE
15/110 PM.

High confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level northwest winds across the Outer Waters and Inner Waters along the Central coast through the week. Lulls in winds along the Central Coast are likely in the overnight and early morning hours. There is potential for Gale force winds to become widespread Monday through Tuesday night, with highest confidence in the Outer Waters where a Gale Watch is in effect. Seas will also approach 10 feet at times through the week.

High confidence in SCA level northwest to west winds across western portion of the Santa Barbara Channel in the afternoon and evening hours through Tuesday, with lower confidence thereafter.
SCA level winds may reach eastern portions each day, with highest confidence tonight and Monday. Local Gale Force Wind gusts confined to the western portion of the Channel may also occur tonight and Monday.

Moderate confidence in conditions remaining below advisory levels in the Inner Waters off the Los Angeles and Orange County coasts through the week. However, localized WNW SCA level wind gusts may occur in the afternoon and evening hours near Malibu and through portions of the San Pedro Channel today and Monday.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT Tuesday for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Wind Advisory in effect from 6 PM this evening to 3 AM PDT Monday for zone 352. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Beach Hazards Statement in effect through late tonight for zones 354-362-366-367. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT Monday for zones 645-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Gale Watch in effect from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Gale Watch in effect from Monday afternoon through late Tuesday night for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).