NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION. Privacy and Cookie policy

FXUS64 KBMX 010223 AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 823 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

New SHORT TERM

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 809 PM CST THU NOV 30 2023

The dry air over Alabama is winning out as the rain over Mississippi is evaporating as it crosses the state line. PWAT's are still low with values near one-half inch. It will take awhile for the air mass to moisten enough for the rain to make it the surface. Expect a round of showers to finally reach west Alabama around midnight, then spreading into east Alabama before sunrise. Temperatures will stay steady overnight as a strong low level southerly jet develops. Cooler air near the surface will keep the higher winds aloft, but may see some gusts of 20-25 mph across north Alabama.

58/rose

Previous short-term discussion: (This evening through Friday)
Issued at 123 PM CST THU NOV 30 2023

The short-term forecast through Friday evening remains in pretty good shape. High cirrus clouds have delayed the diurnal curve just a bit across the southern half of the area, but we're expecting temperatures to catch back up as we go into the afternoon and rise to near 60 degrees. Radar returns remain well off to our west in Mississippi and are having a tough time pushing eastward due to dry air currently in place. Eventually, the atmospheric column will finally moisten as the shortwave trough to our west moves eastward. Showers are expected to develop and move northeastward across much of the area after midnight tonight through Friday morning, moving into eastern and southeastern Alabama by Friday afternoon. We're seeing a bit of an indication based on the latest high-res guidance runs that the activity may be more scattered in nature than previously indicated. As a result, I've started to trend PoPs downward a bit, but still expecting good coverage of showers and perhaps a storm or two through the day on Friday.
Guidance trends continue to indicate a small chance of a few strong to possibly severe storms across far southern Alabama starting Friday afternoon and evening. Surface based instability is currently projected to increase as a warm front lifts northward, but uncertainty still exists as to how much instability will be available during the peak heating hours. In addition, coastal convective development remains a possibility that could essentially prevent the most unstable air from moving northward.
On this afternoon's update, we're going to decrease the area of the Marginal Risk further south to include folks along the U.S 80/I-85 corridor and points southward. Following the passage of the warm front, most locations should easily warm into the upper 60s to lower 70s by Friday afternoon. Breezy southerly winds can be expected as the pressure gradient ramps up ahead of the approaching slow-moving cold front to our northwest.

56/GDG

LONG TERM
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 241 PM CST THU NOV 30 2023

As the initial shortwave lifts to the northeast Friday night, moist southwesterly flow will persist over the area, keeping the chance for rain and a few thunderstorms in the forecast. Ahead of a second shortwave/surface low, the warm sector will move northward Friday night and Saturday. With widespread rainfall across the north, the better instabilities will be confined to far south Central Alabama. The marginal risk area has been pulled southward slightly to reflect that. Threats remain the same, as wind shear parameters remain supportive of severe storms. Made some refinements to rain chances and temperatures for the weekend, but overall no significant chances were needed.

Drier air arrives through the day Sunday, with most of the area rain free by mid afternoon.

14

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 543 PM CST THU NOV 30 2023

Light rain will spread eastward across Central Alabama overnight, with vsbys aoa 5 miles thru 12Z. VFR cigs thru 06z due to a very dry air mass below 850mb. The rain will moisten the air mass with MVFR cigs developing near the AL/MS state line by 06Z. The MVFR cigs will expand eastward and reach most sites by 12Z. IFR cigs will develop with 3-4 hours after onset of MVFR, mainly north of I-85. The rainfall intensity will increase during the day Friday, with vsbys lowering to near 3 miles in rain and fog. A few TSRA possible after 12Z, mainly south of I-20.

58/rose

FIRE WEATHER

Rain spreads back into the area tonight, with widespread light rain expected through Friday. Minimum RH values will remain well above critical thresholds through the weekend, as a wet and unsettled pattern persists. 20ft winds will increase from the south to southeast tonight, at 12-15 mph through Friday, before gradually becoming southwesterly Saturday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Gadsden 45 66 56 67 / 60 100 80 90 Anniston 46 67 59 69 / 50 90 80 90 Birmingham 49 66 60 68 / 70 90 80 90 Tuscaloosa 49 71 61 69 / 80 80 80 90 Calera 47 68 62 69 / 70 80 80 90 Auburn 46 66 62 68 / 30 80 80 100 Montgomery 46 71 64 72 / 40 80 80 100 Troy 47 72 66 73 / 30 80 80 100

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Northern Alabama,