Sunrise 5:56 AM   Sunset 7:26 PM Moonrise 11:31 PM   Moonset 8:06 AM

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FXUS64 KBMX 271101 AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 601 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 1258 AM CDT SAT APR 27 2024

High pressure remains the predominant weather across the region with most of the activity developing along the edges of the high and remaining to our south and west. There will be plenty of clouds, mainly high clouds with some cumulus during the afternoon, as abundant moisture is in place. There could even be a sprinkle or two in the west. By Sunday afternoon the wedge that is in place in the east will retreat and the rain will get closer. Right now the trends keep most of the activity to our west but very close to the state border with Mississippi. Will continue to keep the forecast dry but there is a minimal chance for our far western counties to see a brief shower during the afternoon on Sunday.
Otherwise, dry and warm temperatures with readings in the upper 70s to mid 80s each day, with lows dropping into the 60s.

16

LONG TERM
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT SAT APR 27 2024

While an upper low lifts slowly northeastward across the Boundary Waters of Minnesota and Ontario, a secondary shortwave along the southern end of the trough will move eastward from the ArkLaTex Monday morning to northern Alabama Monday night. An MCS is expected to be located over the ArkLaMiss Monday morning, and will continue to move east-southeastward through the day. It will encounter a drier low-level air mass as it approaches Alabama and will also be well ahead of a stalled frontal boundary extending from the Midwest to the Southern Plains. Therefore some weakening is expected to occur. Also, with MLCAPE values less than 1000 J/kg and 0-6km bulk shear only around 25-30 kts, the probability of it being severe is very low at this time though some gusty winds will be possible depending on the strength of the cold pool. There are typical uncertainties regarding the track of the MCS, but in general expect rain chances to increase in far western Alabama Monday afternoon and across the northwest half of the area Monday night in proximity to the shortwave. However, some guidance suggests a more southerly track that would limit rain chances further north which will be monitored. Tuesday may be trending drier depending on the amount of subsidence behind the shortwave.

For the rest of the week, relatively weak and quasi-zonal mid- level flow will be present southeast of a positively tilted trough over the Northern Plains and Northern Rockies. A few weak convectively enhanced waves in the westerly flow aloft will provide chances of a few showers and storms at times but with low predictability this far out. This will predominately be across the northwest half of the area, while the southeast half should remain drier with temperatures near 90 degrees in closer proximity to ridging extending from the Gulf up the East Coast. Rain chances may begin to increase by the end of the period as moisture pools ahead of a cold front sagging southeastward, though this front is trending slower with each model run.

32/Davis

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 600 AM CDT SAT APR 27 2024

Overall VFR conditions for the period. With the wedge in place across the east, there is a chance at seeing some brief MVFR clouds in at ASN and ANB right around sunrise, so included a tempo here through 15z. There will also be some mid-level cumulus between 4 and 6 kft this afternoon with the heating of the day.
Winds will be southerly and breezy at times with 8 to 12 kts sustained and gusts up to 18 kts this afternoon, calming to less than 7 kts after 2 to 3z.

16

FIRE WEATHER

Southerly low level flow will keep afternoon RH values well above critical values. No wetting rain through Monday morning, with increasing rain chances across north Alabama Monday afternoon and Monday night.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Gadsden 82 60 83 58 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 82 61 82 59 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 83 64 83 62 / 10 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 85 64 84 62 / 10 0 10 0 Calera 82 63 82 61 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 81 62 81 60 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 85 64 85 61 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 84 64 84 60 / 0 0 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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