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FXUS62 KCAE 101429 AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 929 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

SYNOPSIS
As a cold front moves into the region from the west today, widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected to push into the area through the day. It'll be breezy at times both before and after the frontal passage. The front moves east Sunday Night, with another cool, dry air mass moving in. The next chance of rain is not expected until next weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
9:30 AM Update: The first line of showers and embedded thunderstorms has moved through much of the western and northern portions of the forecast area. This line is currently moving through Chesterfield County and it should be out of there by 10 AM or so. The next round of showers and storms is now moving into the Upper CSRA. Expect this line to continue trekking across the region over the next few hours. SPC mesoanalysis is showing that some instability is beginning to creep into the eastern half of the forecast area, with greater than 500 J/kg of surface based CAPE. Meanwhile, bulk shear values are being analyzed in the 40-50 kt range as while. A few breaks in the clouds are also showing up on satellite imagery, especially over the Lower CSRA and far eastern Midlands. While the threat for severe weather remains low, this area would have the best chance of seeing a stronger, potentially severe storm as the this next line moves through the region.

Early morning discussion: Potent upper trough currently in the Arklatex region moves east today swinging through the area this later evening. Associated surface cold front will also move through bringing the threat of several rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Skies are cloudy across the area this morning with low ceilings and patchy fog being reported. The first area of showers is currently moving through the FA and should continue mostly impact locations along and north/west of I-20 during the next few hours. A few embedded thunderstorms are possible this morning but should remain subsevere. Rain chances then quickly increase later this morning as the convection now moving through Alabama and Georgia arrives. Temperatures have struggled to fall tonight which will allow for another day of warm weather ahead of this evening's frontal passage. Forecast highs range from the upper 60s north and west to the lower to mid 70s south and east.

Latest guidance continues to suggest the potential for thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. Factors in favor of convective development today include anomalously high PWATs around 1.5 inches and strong low-level shear around 50 knots. As has been advertised leading up to the event, the amount of instability that develops will be key to determining the threat of strong to severe thunderstorms. The latest SPC Day 1 outlook maintains the Marginal (1/5) risk for severe weather today with a primary damaging wind threat. An isolated tornado is also possible. Given the high moisture in place, locally heavy rainfall could occur, especially in thunderstorms. It will be breezy outside of any convection with gusts to 30 mph possible.

The rain comes to an end from southwest to northeast during the overnight hours with skies likely clearing out quickly towards daybreak. Temperatures fall steadily behind the frontal boundary but with surface winds remaining elevated, idealized radiational cooling is not expected. Lows tonight will be cold, especially in the western CWA which will clear out first. Temperatures at daybreak will likely range from the lower to mid 30s in the west to the upper 30s and lower 40s east.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Monday and Monday Night: A 1030mb surface high will build into the Carolinas and southern Appalachians on Monday in the wake of the departing upper trough and cold front which will be well offshore. Aloft the 500mb flow will be zonal westerly as a very dry air mass settles over the forecast area with PWATs around one quarter inch which is nearly 40-50 percent of normal. Highs on Monday expected to be much cooler than today in the lower to mid 50s with a northwesterly wind around 5 to 10 mph.

Monday night the center of the surface ridge should be centered over the Carolinas and Virginia supporting strong radiational cooling conditions with clear skies expected and light to calm winds. There may be a little bit of wind in the boundary layer with a weak low level jet around 10 knots forecast which may interrupt the strong radiational cooling but think it will not have much impact. Leaning toward going closer to the NBM 50th percentile values with the deterministic values being too warm, likely due to bias correction. Expect lows to dip into the 20s most places.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night: Little change in the overall air mass on Tuesday with continued zonal westerly 500mb flow aloft and persistent surface high pressure in place. Temperatures are expected to be fairly similar with plenty of sunshine with highs forecast in the lower to mid 50s. Another strong radiational cooling night is expected Tuesday night with high pressure and a dry air mass in place, although a fly in the ointment may be some higher clouds lifting northward into the region as 500mb flow backs to the southwest a bit in response to a digging closed upper low over the southwestern states. Expect lows to be similar to Monday night in the 20s to around 30 degrees.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Ensemble guidance suggests 500mb zonal flow over the forecast area on Wednesday will become more northwesterly as an upper ridge develops over the upper Midwest while a closed upper low over Arizona drifts southeastward toward Texas. This will result in downstream upper troughing over New England into the Mid- Atlantic which should push a backdoor front southward through the Carolinas by Thursday morning. High temperatures should be near normal in the upper 50s on Wednesday but then drop back below normal on Thursday with highs in the lower 50s.

Uncertainty increases toward the weekend with ensemble mean 500mb heights lowering with broad upper troughing developing over the southeastern states by the weekend. However, surface high pressure remains persistent over the area and ensemble PWATs remain well below normal on Friday (around 30-50 percent of normal) and slightly below normal on Saturday (70-90 percent of normal), while the deterministic GFS develops a coastal low and possible precipitation over the area on Saturday.
Temperatures should trend back to near normal Fri/Sat.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Restrictions Expected Today with Improvement Tonight

Skies are cloudy across the area this morning with most terminals reporting MVFR to IFR ceilings at this time. The first area of showers is currently moving through the region with a thunderstorm approaching CAE/CUB and additional showers around AGS/DNL. Will need to monitor to see if this activity will reach OGB but for now it appears it will pass to the northwest. Rain chances quickly increase later this morning as showers and thunderstorms now moving through Alabama and Georgia arrive. Gusty southerly winds are expected to develop around daybreak and should be periodically breezy for much of the daytime hours, diminishing gradually tonight. Due to the higher confidence in thunderstorms later today, VCTS remains in the forecast at all terminals during the afternoon and evening hours. Conditions should quickly improve behind the cold front near the end of the TAF period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Gusty winds are possible through midday Monday. No significant restrictions to aviation expected Monday afternoon through Thursday.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...Lake Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Monday for GAZ040-063>065-077.
SC...Lake Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Monday for SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116- 135>137.

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Jamestown Bridge
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Sun -- 04:46 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:45 AM EST     0.13 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:57 AM EST     1.24 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:18 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 05:11 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:30 PM EST     0.18 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:04 PM EST     1.05 feet High Tide
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Jamestown Bridge, Santee River, South Carolina, Tide feet

Pimlico
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Sun -- 03:10 AM EST     0.39 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:47 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:59 AM EST     1.92 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:20 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 03:55 PM EST     0.53 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:13 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 09:06 PM EST     1.62 feet High Tide
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Pimlico, West Branch, Cooper River, South Carolina, Tide feet

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