Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lake Sherwood, CA

.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...15/302 AM.

The offshore flow continues with current gradients about 4 mb offshore from the east and 2 mb offshore from the north. These gradients will likely be another mb stronger at their morning peak a few hours after dawn. There will be a uptick in the upper level winds this morning and this will make today noticeably windier than ydy. The wind direction will also change today and will be more in an easterly direction. This switch in direction will bring stronger winds to the Santa Paula/Ventura area, the Verdugo Hills areas, Simi Valley and the Chatsworth area. Mountain wind gusts will increase to 45 to 55 mph with local gusts to 60 mph, The Santa Clarita Vly and areas north and south of the Santa Susana mtns will see max wind gusts form 40 to 50 mph with local gusts to 55 mph. The VTA coasts will see 35 to 45 mph gusts. The good news is that the winds through the Santa Monica mtns will be focused on the western third of the range far away from the Palisades Fire. The upper reaches of the Eaton fire may see an increase in winds but this is not a for sure situation.

The really good news is that today will be the last really windy day. Looked for a marked decrease in the winds this afternoon with the advisory level gusts ending by 300pm.

Red Flag conditions continue until 600pm (due to the very low humidities) and the extra critical fire conditions will continue until 300 pm when the winds subside.

Less cold air advection and higher hgts will bring 4 to 8 degrees of warming to the area today and max temps will end up 3 to 6 degrees above normal.

Current temperatures in the wind sheltered inland locations are well below freezing and another round of freezing temps is forecast again tonight.

Thursday will be a very nice day. There will still be enough offshore flow to bring 15 to 25 mph winds to the typical Santa Ana locations in the morning but thats it. Max temps will cool a few degrees (due to the weaker offshore flow) but will still be a few degrees above normal. Max temps across the csts vlys will be in the mid to upper 60s.

Friday will finally see the offshore flow reverse to onshore. At the upper levels the upper low that has been harmlessly spinning to the SW of KLAX will move to the east and pass just to the south of San Diego. There is a chance of some marine layer clouds, but that will likely have to wait until Saturday. The combination of the onshore flow and hgts falling to 564 dam will result is a dramatic 4 to 8 degrees cool down (except for the Antelope Vly which will not see much change). Max temps Friday will only be in the lower to mid 60s across the csts/vlys.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...15/312 AM.

The weekend will feature a coastal and lower vly marine layer which will provide a very welcome boost to humidities. The afternoon onshore push to the east will be near 4 mb. Max temps will not change much each day and will mostly be in the lower to mid 60s across the csts/vlys.

Mdls and ensembles are showing significant differences on Mon and Tue as they struggle to resolve the interaction of cold energetic flow out of Canada and a weak upper low moving in from the East pac. The effects of the mdl disagreement will not be felt too much on Monday but there is less confidence on the exact forecast Tue and Wed which could feature a mdt-stg Santa Ana (about a 40 percent chc at this point with less confidence on which day)

AVIATION
15/0702Z.

At 06Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor inversion.

High confidence in VFR conds through the period. Wind group changes may be off by +/- 3 hours. Thru Wed afternoon, areas of LLWS are possible with moderate to locally strong UDDF and turbulence, especially near the foothills and mtns. Winds may be erratic at times, changing quickly between gusty and light.

KLAX...High confidence in VFR conds. There is a 20% chance of an east wind component reaching 8 kt between 13Z and 19Z Wed.

KBUR...High confidence in VFR conds. Moderate confidence in winds. Maximum wind gusts may be off +/- 10 kts and wind group changes may be off +/- 3 hours. LLWS is possible through early Wed afternoon, with moderate to locally strong turbulence and UDDF near the airport.

MARINE
14/1111 PM.

In the Outer Waters, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level E-NE winds will persist in the southern zone (PZZ676) thru Wed afternoon.
Local Gale force gusts are possible (20-30% chance) late tonight/early Wed in zone PZZ676. There is a 30% chance for SCA winds to continue Wed afternoon thru Thu morning. Otherwise, winds and seas will likely be below SCA levels thru Sun night.
There is a 20-30% chance of SCA level NW winds Fri night into Sat mainly south of Point Conception.

In the inner waters N of Pt. Sal, except for a 20% chance of SCA level NE winds nearshore during the morning hours Wed, SCA level conds are not expected thru Sun night.

In the Santa Barbara Channel, SCA level winds are expected from Ventura to Santa Cruz Island southward through late tonight, then Gale force winds will likely develop (60% chance) very late tonight and continue thru early Wed afternoon. SCA level E-NE winds are expected to continue into Thu morning (60% chance), possibly becoming more widespread by Thurs morning across the Channel. Benign conds are expected thru Sun night.

In the southern inner waters, SCA level winds will continue tonight, then likely increase to Gale force (60% chance) late tonight and continue thru noon Wed. These winds will be mostly from Malibu to Pt Mugu and out to Anacapa Island. Then, SCA level NE winds are possible at times thru Thu morning in the same area.
Elsewhere, SCA level winds are still likely (60% chance) thru the San Pedro Channel and out to Avalon and Two Harbors overnight thru Wed morning. Benign conds are expected Thu night thru Sun night.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Freeze Warning remains in effect until 9 AM PST this morning for zones 38-343-344-346>348-357-381>383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Wind Advisory now in effect until 3 PM PST this afternoon for zones 88-354-355-358-362-369>380. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Red Flag Warning in effect until 6 PM PST this evening for zones 288-345-352>358-362-369>374-376-377-380. (See LAXRFWLOX).
Red Flag Warning in effect until 3 PM PST Thursday for zones 375-378-379. (See LAXRFWLOX).
PZ...Gale Warning in effect until 3 PM PST this afternoon for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Gale Warning in effect until noon PST today for zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until noon PST today for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).