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PZZ655 Inner Waters From Point Mugu To San Mateo Pt. Ca Including Santa Catalina And Anacapa Islands- 202 Pm Pdt Tue Oct 3 2023
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 3 ft at 14 seconds and S 2 ft at 12 seconds.
Wed..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 3 ft at 9 seconds and S 2 ft at 11 seconds.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 3 ft at 10 seconds and S 2 ft at 11 seconds.
Thu..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 3 ft at 9 seconds and S 2 ft at 11 seconds.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 3 ft at 8 seconds and S 2 ft at 11 seconds.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 3 ft at 8 seconds and S 2 ft at 11 seconds.
Fri night..W winds 10 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 ft and S 2 ft.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 3 ft and S 3 ft. Patchy fog.

PZZ600 202 Pm Pdt Tue Oct 3 2023
synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park...at 20z, or 1 pm pdt, a 1030 mb surface high was centered about 900 nm nw of point conception and a 1012 mb surface low was centered near needles, ca. The high will strengthen and move N well off the pac nw coast through Wed night, while a weak thermal trough develops along the southern ca coast during the night and morning hours.

FXUS66 KLOX 032018 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 118 PM PDT Tue Oct 3 2023

SYNOPSIS
03/221 AM.

A warming and drying trend will continue to take place through Thursday as offshore flow establishes beneath strong high pressure aloft. A weak to moderate Santa Ana wind event is possible for Wednesday through Friday with temperatures well above normal. Some cooling is expected over the weekend.

.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...03/118 PM.

Overall, 12Z models continue to exhibit good synoptic agreement through the short term period. At upper levels, ridge will develop over the West Coast, peaking in strength on Friday. Near the surface, offshore flow will be on the increase, peaking Thursday morning, then weaker on Friday.

Forecast-wise, two main issues in the short term will be winds and temperatures. With respect to winds, the first Santa Ana of the season is still very much on track. Models indicate increasing offshore gradients (LAX-DAG), peaking at around -3.0 mb on Thursday morning then weakening on Friday. The upper level wind and thermal support is rather marginal. Looking at high resolution ensembles, there's about a 20-40% chance of low end advisory-level northeast winds across the mountains/favored valleys through Thursday. So with those probabilities, will not issue any advisories with the afternoon forecast package. However, future shifts will need to monitor the situation closely. Along with the weak Santa Ana winds, there will be some weak Santa Lucia winds across San Luis Obispo county, but speed will remain below advisory levels.

As for temperatures, the combination of building H5 heights and thicknesses as well as increasing offshore surface gradients will bring a noticeable warming trend to the area, especially west of the mountains. Temperatures across the coastal plain will likely peak on Thursday (mid 80s to mid 90s), but will peak on Friday (highs mid 90s to around 100) across the coastal valleys due to the weakening offshore flow.

As for clouds, the developing offshore flow will keep the area stratus-free through Friday with mostly clear skies prevailing.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...03/118 PM.

For the extended period, 12Z models continue to exhibit decent synoptic agreement. At upper levels, ridge gradually weakens through the weekend and into early next week. Near the surface, offshore flow weakens and onshore flow returns.

Forecast-wise, it looks to be pretty benign through the extended period. Offshore winds will be weak, so no advisory issues are anticipated Saturday through Tuesday. Skies should remain generally clear although stratus/fog should begin to reestablish on Sunday morning and continue to expand each night Monday and Tuesday. As for temperatures, with the upper ridge weakening and onshore flow returning, will anticipate a gradual cooling trend for all areas into early next week.

AVIATION
03/1740Z.

At 17Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1100 feet deep. The top of the inversion was at 2500 feet with a temperature of 19 deg C.

Hi confidence in the 18Z TAFs with VFR conds thru the fcst period. There is a 50% chance of north winds up to 12 kt for KVNY aft 17Z Wed.

KLAX...Hi confidence in the 18Z TAF with VFR conds thru the fcst period. Good confidence in any east wind component remaining below 6 kt.

KBUR...Hi confidence in the 18Z TAF with VFR conds thru the fcst period.

MARINE
03/827 AM.

High confidence in the current forecast. There is a 20-30% chance of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level northeast winds nearshore from Ventura to Malibu on Thursday morning, and there is a 30% chance of SCA NW winds across the outer waters Friday afternoon and evening. Elsewhere and otherwise, winds and seas will remain below Advisory levels through Sat.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

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Mugu Lagoon (ocean pier)
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Tue -- 12:53 AM PDT     3.72 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:49 AM PDT     2.19 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:52 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:41 AM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 12:06 PM PDT     5.57 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:37 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:43 PM PDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:32 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Mugu Lagoon (ocean pier), California, Tide feet

Port Hueneme
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Tue -- 01:00 AM PDT     3.78 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:51 AM PDT     2.28 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:52 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:41 AM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 12:13 PM PDT     5.70 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:38 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:45 PM PDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:32 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port Hueneme, California, Tide feet

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