Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lake Sherwood, CA

.SHORT TERM (MON-THU)...19/915 PM.

***UPDATE***

Temperatures warmed significantly today as high pressure built over the region. The lack of marine layer clouds contributed to the rapid warming, along with offshore northeasterly winds. The valleys and portions of the Central Coast were up to 10-20 degrees warmer than yesterday, with highs in the 80s to low 90s. Many coastal zones and mountains were cooler, reaching the upper 60s to 70s. Looking into Tuesday and Wednesday, temperatures will continue to rise as these northerly winds continue and the high pressure center pushes closer to southern California.

Tonight, there is a slight chance for some marine layer clouds and fog to redevelop over the coastal waters, and these may affect coastal areas briefly Tuesday morning. It wouldn't be surprising to see low clouds and haze lingering at the beaches earlier Tuesday, and Wednesday given the shallow marine layer depth.
Otherwise, the current forecast looks on track, with no significant changes needed.

***From Previous Discussion***

The warming trend is in full swing today with most areas away from the immediate coast up 5-15 degrees from yesterday and some areas as much as 20 degrees warmer. Pressure gradients continue to trend offshore as well which is providing another source of warming in addition the building ridge aloft. With those offshore gradients will also come some gusty winds in the mountains, strongest overnight tonight into Tuesday morning. Winds may approach advisory levels at times due to moderate descending flow, but winds between 900 and 500mb are relatively light as are the gradients so advisory level winds should be very marginal and mostly in unpopulated areas.

Warmest temperatures this week will be Tuesday through Thursday.
Models have definitely trended "not as hot" but even with the 2-4 degree downward adjustment to the forecast high temperatures, when factoring in the warming overnight lows and very light offshore flow, heat risk values still reach advisory levels across a large portion of the valleys and lower mountains, including the Santa Ynez and southern Salinas Valleys as well.
However, confidence isn't super high, and if models continue to trend lower with temperatures tonight and tomorrow it's possible some of the more marginal areas such as Downtown LA, may drop off the advisory.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...19/200 PM.

Good mdl agreement that a trof will ripple through the state on Friday. Hgts will not fall too much only about 2 dam. More importantly there will be strong onshore trends leading to mdt to stg onshore flow both to the north and east in the afternoon. The increased onshore flow and cyclonic turning aloft will produce an abundance of morning low clouds that will cover most of the csts and some of the lower vlys. Almost all areas will see 3 to 6 degrees of cooling. Still with cstl highs mostly in the mid 70s to lower 80s and the vlys coming in the upper 80s to lower 90s, max temps will remain well above normal.

The real cooling will hit Saturday as hgts fall and onshore flow remains strong. Coastal low clouds are likely although many ensembles show slightly less coverage than on Friday. The big news will be the temps: look for 5 to 10 locally 12 degrees across the area. The biggest cooling will occur in the LA/VTA vlys. Max temps will drop to a few degrees either side of normal.

Slightly higher hgts and slightly less onshore flow will bring a few degrees of warming to the area on Sunday.

AVIATION
20/0603Z.

At 0505Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 700 feet deep. The top of the inversion was 1600 feet with a temperature of 26 C.

Good confidence in TAFs. There is a 15% chance of MVFR vsbys at KLAX, KSMO, KOXR, KSBA and KSMX from 12Z-17Z.

KLAX...Good confidence in TAF. There is a 15% chance of 5SM HZ 12Z-17Z. No significant east wind component is expected.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF.

MARINE
19/731 PM.

Moderate to high confidence in the current forecast. Higher confidence exists in the forecast for seas relative to the forecast for winds.

For the Outer Waters and the nearshore waters along the Central Coast, conditions will be at least Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
levels through Tuesday night, except for lulls nearshore along the Central Coast during late night and early morning hours. There is a 60-90 percent chance for GALE Force winds late this afternoon through this evening, decreasing to a 60-80 percent chance of Gales Tuesday through Tuesday night. The highest chances for Gale Force winds will be for the majority of the Outer Waters, while the lowest chances will be for the nearshore waters along the Central Coast and the for southern Outer Waters. There remains a moderate to high chance for GALE Force winds through the work week, but low confidence in timing and max wind speeds beyond Tuesday.

Across the Santa Barbara Channel, there is a 40-60 percent chance of SCA level winds tonight across the western portion, followed by a 40-60 percent chance on Tuesday afternoon and night. There are lesser chances for Wednesday and Thursday afternoons and evenings.

South of Point Mugu, into the Santa Monica Bay, and the San Pedro Channel, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels through at least Thursday.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Heat Advisory in effect from 11 AM Wednesday to 9 PM PDT Thursday for zones 88-343-348-351>353-356>358-368-374-375-548. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Heat Advisory in effect from 11 AM Tuesday to 9 PM PDT Thursday for zones 369>373. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Gale Watch in effect from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).