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FXUS65 KPSR 060116 AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 611 PM MST Tue Dec 5 2023

SYNOPSIS
Dry conditions will persist across the region for the foreseeable future. Temperatures will be near record levels over the next couple of days ahead of a cooling trend to near normal going into the weekend.

DISCUSSION
High amplitude ridging evident in water vapor imagery is dominating over western CONUS early this afternoon. A weak PV anomaly off the southern CA coast is spreading few to scattered high clouds across the Desert Southwest. Otherwise, due to the strong ridging, temperatures will be at near record levels the next couple of days. NBM probabilities of reaching or exceeding the record high in Phoenix today and tomorrow is around 30-40%.

The strong ridging will slide east of the region after tomorrow as strong troughing cutting across the Pacific Northwest begins to dig into the Great Basin. Thus, temperatures will cool more towards normal by the end of the week. Conditions will remain dry however, as the main jet core will remain north of the region, thus enhanced dynamics associated with the jet will not impact southcentral Arizona in terms of precipitation. The anticipated dry cold front moving through late week will result in some enhanced winds, particularly out along the Colorado River Valley, where winds gusting in excess of 30 mph is in the 30-50% range for Friday.

Heading into the weekend, cooler temperatures will persist as dry northwesterly flow persists. However, mid-level heights will slowly build going into early next week, thus temperatures are expected to warm during this period. Ensemble clusters remains in excellent agreement into Monday in regards to ridging building across the West Coast. Clusters become more muddled in regards to the next trough diving southwards across the Intermountain West and High Plains, affecting how long the ridge will reside over the region going into the middle of next week. Regardless of differences, there will be no threat for precipitation across the region for at least the next week.

AVIATION
Updated at 0111Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: No aviation weather concerns are expected through the period.
Very light winds across the terminal sites this evening with a bit of a westerly drift at times. Overall, winds will remain light and variable through the night mainly less than 6 kts, with the direction becoming southeasterly again later this evening into Wednesday morning. Skies should remain mostly clear except for a few passing high clouds.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No aviation weather concerns are expected through the period.
Winds will continue out of the W-NW at both terminals, although periods of very light and variable winds can be expected at times during the overnight hours. Just a few passing high clouds at times early tonight otherwise clear.

FIRE WEATHER
Warm and seasonably dry conditions are expected through mid week under strong high pressure aloft. Through Wednesday, expect lower desert high temperatures reaching to near 80 degrees before gradually cooling late week. Afternoon MinRHs mostly between 20-25% are expected across the lower deserts this week to up to 30% over higher terrain areas. Winds today and Wednesday will mostly stay easterly all day across eastern and south-central Arizona with northerly winds favored across the western districts.
Some periodic gusts up to 15-20 mph will be possible along ridgetop locations.

PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...None.
CA...None.

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