Marine Weather and Tides
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.
|Sunrise 5:23AM||Sunset 7:54PM||Sunday June 20, 2021 11:12 PM MST (06:12 UTC)||Moonrise 3:31PM||Moonset 2:11AM||Illumination 85%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Parker, AZHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Phoenix, AZ  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS65 KPSR 210550 AFDPSR
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 1050 PM MST Sun Jun 20 2021
UPDATE. Updated Aviation Discussion.
SYNOPSIS. After one more day of excessive heat on Sunday, temperatures will cool back down to around seasonal normals for Monday through Wednesday. A weak upper level disturbance may bring scattered showers and a few thunderstorms late Tuesday through Wednesday as well as considerable cloudiness, but little if any rainfall is expected. Increasing high pressure and drier conditions later in the week is expected to push high temperatures back above 110 degrees over the lower deserts by Friday into next weekend.
DISCUSSION. Our prolonged excessive heat event that has lasted for over a week will finally end today as the mid-to-upper level ridge of high pressure centered over Arizona slides south and weakens slightly. Overnight low temperatures this morning at Phoenix finally dipped down into the upper 80s to end that streak of 90 degree lows at four days. Model and observational trends have also trended down a degree or two for today's high temperatures, but Phoenix still has about a 25% chance of extending their record-breaking streak of 115 deg F days to seven. Nevertheless, it is still very hot across the entire region, with lower desert high temperatures expected to climb to 110-115 deg F range for Yuma and Phoenix and 113-118 deg F range over southeast California and la Paz County.
The main weather impact for the rest of this afternoon and tonight will be gusty winds capable for producing blowing dust across the region as a strengthening upper level trough west of California progresses slightly further east to help displace the ridge. This will allow for sustained 15-25 mph winds across the region with 30-35 mph gusts. Gusts up to 40 mph will be possible for the ridgetops of south central Arizona and southeast California. We considered a Wind Advisory for southwest Imperial County into as far east as the Imperial Valley for this evening, but decided against it because the EPS was the only ensemble suite that showed this potential. Otherwise, most model guidance keeps gusts below 30 mph with the NBM depicting only a 10% chance of gusts above 30 mph and 1% chance of gusts above 35 mph in both the Imperial Valley and Phoenix metro where winds will be strongest tonight due to downsloping effects. Winds in the Phoenix will generally be stronger over western and southern portions of the metro as westerlies interact with the Estrellas and South Mountain. In addition, elevated to near critical fire weather conditions will continue through early evening. Please see the Fire Weather Forecast product for more information.
The ridge of high pressure is expected to gradually shift south and east over the next few days as a strengthening trough west of California helps displace the ridge. Although Monday will still be hotter than normal, high temperatures on Monday will cool down relatively speaking into a 107-111 deg F range for most lower desert locations. A weak upper level disturbance just southwest of Cabo San Lucas is expected to move north along the west coast of Baja California to advect deeper tropical moisture into southeast California and southern Arizona on Tuesday. Additional Gulf surges and/or gravity waves spurred by convection over the Sierra Madres aided by leftover moisture associated with TC Dolores over the next couple of days may also help increase low-level moisture over the region as well. In addition, a PV fracture splitting off the main flow and frontal system over the Big Bend region of Texas on Monday may be able to move west-southwest around the edge of the mid-to-upper level ridge for Tuesday into Wednesday to help trigger convection over Sonora and southern Arizona as well. PWATs increase into a 1.3-1.5" range late Tuesday into Wednesday (2+ standardized anomalies above normal), with GEFS plumes showing light QPF across the entire region, including southeast California. Given most of the moisture will be elevated, the most likely scenario would be for high-based showers overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning resulting in light QPF amounts. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Wednesday afternoon as well, but the best dynamics may be over northern Arizona by then, confining storm chances to the higher terrain north and east of Phoenix.
Temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday are forecast to be closer to normal readings as clouds should have a modest impact on daytime temperatures. Unfortunately, the ridge to our southeast will still be influencing our region keeping 500mb heights quite high, or around 590-592dm. The latter half of the week will be a battle between the ridge and the stalled out large scale upper level trough to our northwest. This should keep much if not all of our area under southwesterly flow with drier air more likely moving in on Thursday. The drying atmosphere and a gradual increase in heights aloft to between 593-595dm is likely to push daytime highs closer to 110 degrees by Thursday and even higher going into next weekend. The latest NBM forecasts highs between 111-113 degrees on Friday and potential for 114-117 degrees for next weekend. However, there remains a fairly large spread in temperature guidance during this time as ensembles depict a continuation of a blocking pattern over the eastern Pacific into the Western U.S. The uncertainty in where exactly the trough (or maybe even cut- off low) to our west northwest goes will likely determine how hot we get later in the week into next weekend.
AVIATION. Updated at 0550Z.
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
West winds this evening are expected to continue into the overnight hours before switching to a light easterly component or becoming light and variable. Some minor LLWS concerns are possible over the next several hours but should remain below TAF thresholds. Winds become westerly around 17Z-18Z tomorrow with gusts to around 15-20 kts possible. Otherwise, mostly clear skies will persist through the TAF period.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Winds at KIPL will favor the west over the next several hours before transitioning to a southeast component. At KBLH, southwest winds are expected to become southerly later tonight with speeds remaining below 10 kts. Southwest winds at KBLH with gusts upwards of 20-25 kts are expected going into tomorrow afternoon. Otherwise, mostly clear skies will persist through the next 24 hours.
FIRE WEATHER. Wednesday through Sunday: A brief increase in deeper moisture late Tuesday into Wednesday will bring a 10-20% chance of showers and thunderstorms across the region, with the best chances over south central Arizona. Gusty winds associated with thunderstorm outflows will be possible, but wetting rains are generally not expected. Drier and warmer conditions will move into the region by Thursday or Friday to end rain chances. Increased cloud cover will keep temperatures closer to normal for Wednesday and Thursday with high temperatures remaining in the 105-110 deg F range before climbing into the 110-115 deg F range for Friday into next weekend. Min RH values will generally dip down to around 15% through Thursday before 5-15% min RH values return for Friday into the weekend. Overnight RH values will recover to around 30-40% on Wednesday night before falling to 20-30% late in the week. Aside from any thunderstorm outflows mid-week, winds will follow typical diurnal patterns with afternoon gusts.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT. Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. AZ . None. CA . None.
DISCUSSION . Hopper/Kuhlman AVIATION . Smith FIRE WEATHER . Hopper/Kuhlman
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|Blythe, Blythe Airport, CA||37 mi||80 min||SSW 15||10.00 mi||Fair||100°F||58°F||25%||1004.5 hPa|
Link to 5 minute data for KBLH
Wind History from BLH (wind in knots)
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|2 days ago||S||S||W||N||S||S||SW||NW||S||S||SW||S||SE||SE||SE||S||S||S||SW||S||S |
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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