Marine Weather and Tides
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
|Sunrise 7:24AM||Sunset 5:28PM||Tuesday December 1, 2020 12:54 AM MST (07:54 UTC)||Moonrise 6:37PM||Moonset 8:35AM||Illumination 99%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Parker, AZHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Phoenix, AZ  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS65 KPSR 010445 AAA AFDPSR
Area Forecast Discussion . Updated National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 945 PM MST Mon Nov 30 2020
UPDATE. Updated Aviation Discussion.
SYNOPSIS. Anticipate highs in the 70s Tuesday over the lower elevations along with breezy conditions in the afternoon over portions of southeast California and southwest Arizona . and light winds over south-central Arizona. Temperatures will be somewhat cooler Wednesday. During the latter half of the week and over the weekend, a couple of weather systems will affect the forecast area. The main impacts will include breezy to windy conditions at times . most noticeably on Thursday . and some additional cooling with desert highs remaining in the 60s the rest of the week. There will also be a slight chance of showers over the higher terrain of south-central Arizona on Saturday. Anticipate only subtle warming Sunday and Monday.
DISCUSSION. The breezy to windy conditions from earlier today have weakened. There will be a lingering gradient that will lead to some localized foothill breeziness tonight. But otherwise, winds will be a lot lighter. The next system to affect our area is currently moving through the Pacific Northwest and western Canada. At the upper levels, the southern end of the system will dive southeastward tonight and reach New Mexico and the southern Plains Tuesday. An associated front will advance south and southeastward leading to a tightening pressure gradient and strengthening of the lower level winds. This will affect our forecast area initially Tuesday afternoon over/near the Lower Colorado River Valley and then the rest of our area Tuesday night and Wednesday. However, the valley floors of south-central Arizona won't see much breeziness due to reduced mixing at night and then the gradient relaxes during the day Wednesday.
A follow-on system within the trough centered over the Plains dives southward Wednesday. It is expected this will push another dry front through Arizona and southeast California Wednesday night and Thursday. This will lead to widespread breezy to windy conditions on Thursday. Anticipate additional lingering breeziness Friday. There continue to be differences in model solutions as to the trajectory and evolution of this follow-on system which in turn affects winds, temperature trends, and precipitation potential in the Friday night through Monday time frame. Looking at ensemble means, the EPS is takes the follow-on low right into Arizona by Thursday and goes on to deepen it somewhat Thursday night into Friday as it sags southward a little bit. It then depicts the low slowly moving eastward over the weekend. This has been consistent over the last two main model cycles. By contrast, the GEFS only brushes AZ with the follow-on low and otherwise keeps it east. However, within the western periphery of the positively tilted main trough, it goes on to develop a weaker upper low centered over southern AZ by Saturday. This appears to be a result of more subtle vorticity features within the trough and possibly a short wave emanating from flow undercutting the upstream ridge. Meanwhile, the GEPS is somewhere between the EPS and GEFS but more like the GEFS. Looking at the WPC Cluster Analysis, it appears only about 25% of the members of the aforementioned ensemble systems are leaning toward the EPS scenario described (even though the EPS comprises roughly half the members). But, as you would imagine, the majority of the members develop a closed low eventually. However, there is something of a plurality on a weak low. Thus, there is now some modest precip potential for south-central AZ this weekend. NBM probabilistic QPF only shows QPF over our higher terrain areas at the 90th percentile and only at the 95th percentile for the lower elevations of south-central AZ.
So, for the latter half of the week, the most likely scenario is breezy to windy at times, some cooling (highs back to the 60s on the lower deserts), and a slight chance of precip Saturday limited to the higher terrain of south-central AZ. The coolest morning looks to be Friday with some isolated lower deserts close to freezing.
AVIATION. Updated at 0445Z.
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
No aviation concerns for the next 24 hours. With gradients relaxing winds will be generally light and 8kt or less, following standard diurnal patterns. Light east wind will prevail tonight into Tuesday morning, becoming light west or light/variable after about 21z. Winds return to light east/northeast after 04z in the evening. Skies to be SKC for the most part with just a small amount of high cirrus embedded in the flow at times.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
With high pressure aloft dominating expect skies across the western deserts to be generally clear next 24 hours with just a bit of high cirrus embedded within the flow at times. Winds at KIPL will be very light through the period, tending to favor the north at times during the afternoon Tuesday. Winds will be light, favoring the north over the next 24 hours at KBLH with an increase in wind expected during the afternoon into the evening on Tuesday as stronger northerly low level flow increases. Sustained winds to around 15kt likely after 20z with gusts to around 20 (or even higher) during the afternoon and into the evening. Despite gusts, there is potential for some LLWS during the evening as winds in the 2-3k foot range reach to 30kt or greater, but confidence is low and will not be mentioned in the TAFs at this time.
FIRE WEATHER. Thursday through Monday: Another round of breezy to windy conditions is expected Thursday as a dry cool front moves through from the north and east. Anticipate lingering breeziness Friday followed by lighter winds over the weekend and into next week (favoring northerly and easterly directions). At this time, conditions are anticipated to remain below critical thresholds. A weak upper low is anticipated to develop over the desert southwest and far northwest Mexico by the end of the week. Uncertainties remain in regard to how strong the low will be, how quickly it develops, and where exactly it will be centered. At this time, it appears the main impact will be to keep temperatures near normal instead of a rapid warmup. Also, it will provide a slight chance of showers over the higher terrain of south-central AZ Saturday. Minimum humidities will be in the 10-20% range for most locations. Max RH will start off in the 25-40% range on the lower elevations (35-50% higher terrain) and increase about 10% by Monday morning.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT. Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. AZ . None. CA . None.
DISCUSSION . AJ AVIATION . CB FIRE WEATHER . AJ
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|Blythe, Blythe Airport, CA||37 mi||63 min||WSW 9||10.00 mi||Fair||53°F||12°F||19%||1019.3 hPa|
Link to 5 minute data for KBLH
Wind History from BLH (wind in knots)
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|2 days ago||SE||SW||W||SW||SW||SW||W||SW||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||NE||N||N||N||N||N||N||N||W||Calm||NW||W |
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GEOS Local Image of Southwest EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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