Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Irmo, SC

KEY MESSAGES
- 1. Dry and hot weather continues today.

- 2. A cold front brings increased fire weather concerns, a low chance for a few showers and cooler weather to start the next week.

DISCUSSION
Key Message 1: Dry and hot weather continues today.

A cold front will begin approaching the area from the west today. Southwesterly flow ahead of this combined with anomalously high low-level temperatures should yield another day of near record high temperatures this afternoon. Mostly sunny skies are expected today, with some cumulus development possible this afternoon. But moisture will still remain quite modest with PWs still under an inch for most of the day so not expecting too many clouds this afternoon. Overall, just another anomalously warm day with temps approaching the mid 90s. Record at CAE is 96F (set back in 1896!) and at AGS is 91F (also back in 1896). It is likely that we break the record at AGS but we probably will still be a few degrees shy of the record at CAE.

Key Message 2: A cold front brings increased fire weather concerns, a low chance for a few showers and cooler weather to start the next week.

Some clouds are forecast to arrive on Sunday morning ahead of an approaching cold front from the northwest. Moisture will still be modest along the front, with PWs probably bumping up north of 1.2" across the area. However, forcing looks quite limited as the surface low and attendant synoptic lift looks to remain across the northeastern US. As a result, there is some skepticism regarding overall precip chances for Sunday as this type of pattern really just doesn't yield precip very often.
PoPs are around 30% right now but they have fallen since the forecast package 24 hours ago and I wouldn't be surprised to continue lowering precip chances. Temps will likely peak early on Sunday with cooler temps behind the front through the day.
We'll also be breezy during the late morning and early afternoon hours, but its unlikely that the dry air behind the front overlaps with the strongest winds to elevate our already high fire weather concerns. From there, the forecast looks pretty simple for this upcoming week. Seasonal temps are expected Mon- Wed, with highs back in the mid to upper 80s by the end of the week. Dry weather will continue, with our elevated fire weather concerns remaining. A Burn Ban remains in place for our SC counties until further notice, so please avoid burning activities to prevent any wildfires. There are some signals emerging in longer range model guidance that point at more a more favorable pattern for rain developing at the end of the month, so lets keep our fingers crossed and hope that we can get some more wet weather in here by then!

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR conditions remain through the valid TAF period.

Light to calm winds will remain through the early morning hours this Saturday morning. Once better mixing takes hold by mid morning, winds will pick up to between 5-10 knots, and then do expect to see a few higher gusts up to 16 knots becoming possible by early afternoon through sunset at all locations. Gusts diminish at that point, but winds should remain around 5 knots after sunset. As for any restrictions through the period, none are anticipated. Airmass will remain very dry. May see a few afternoon cumulus develop above 5kft, but that will be the extent of any clouds. With the limited moisture and expected winds, fog will not be an issue.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A cold front may lead to brief restrictions Sunday but high pressure returns early next week.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...None.
GA...None.