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FXUS62 KCAE 281944 AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 244 PM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

SYNOPSIS
Well below normal temperatures are expected, both highs and lows, through Wednesday. A gradual warming trend begins on Thursday and continues into the weekend. Rain chances also increase starting Friday as a wetter airmass and multiple lows traverse the region.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Deep upper trough is currently positioned over northern New England with amplified ridging across much of the western CONUS. Strong upper level jet streak over the Eastern Seaboard is continuing to round the base of the trough and move offshore. Upper level flow over the southeast is mainly westerly, with surface high pressure positioned to our west. Skies are now clear after some high cirrus thinned and moved offshore, and under abundant sunshine temperatures across the CWA have warmed into the low to mid 50s. The atmosphere remains dry, with PWAT values less than 0.25" and surface dewpoints in the 20s. Pressure gradient and downsloping have led to elevated west to northwest winds around 10 to 15 mph and a few gusts around 20 mph.

Surface high will advect eastward overnight with the pressure gradient relaxing. This airmass is expected to be even drier than the current one, with PWATs falling further below 0.2" and dewpoints into the teens. Cold advection early followed by ideal cooling conditions will lead to one of the coldest nights/mornings so far this season. MOS guidance indicates lows getting into the middle 20s while the 25th percentile NBM temperatures are closer to 20 for CAE, so generally went with a blend of these. Caveat here is that hi-res models (RAP, HRRR) bring in cooler dewpoints, into the lower teens, which could essentially cause temperatures to be cooler than forecast.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Surface high pressure will be centered over the Southeast Wednesday morning. As a result, winds will be light and variable throughout the day and skies will be clear through the daylight hours. After the significant cold air advection Tuesday, temperatures are expected to be well below normal. GFS ensemble shows the abnormally cold airmass starting to head east by Wednesday morning but surface temperatures will remain around 10 degrees below normal. Ensembles also show a low chance of temperatures at or above 50 degrees for much of the area. Expecting highs to be at or just above 50 degrees along the southern Midlands and CSRA while the central and northern Midlands may barely brush 50. With the airmass starting to modify, overnight lows are not expected to drop quite as low as Wednesday morning. However, given the excellent radiational cooling and cold temperatures to begin with, expect lows at or below 30.

The surface high will push offshore as a surface low moves up from the southern plains. Although the morning will start off dry, southerly flow will increase bringing increased moisture into the area. Temperatures will be closer to average as warm air begins to advect into the region. Afternoon highs around 60. Overnight lows will also benefit from the warm air advection and increased moisture, falling closer to normal in the upper 30s to around 40.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Both deterministic and ensemble guidance is coming into better agreement about a system affecting the region beginning on Friday, leading to increased confidence, particularly for Friday. The incoming shortwave trough is expected to translate from the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Northeast. Behind the shortwave, flow aloft is expected to become southwest. At the surface, an associated frontal boundary is forecast to move toward the area. Once it arrives, there is a moderate to high chance that the boundary becomes quasi-stationary through the weekend as the flow aloft is expected to be generally parallel with the southwest to northeast oriented front. Additionally, moisture is expected to increase and remain high. The NAEFS indicates PWATs in the 90th percentile for much of the weekend.
The combination of the frontal boundary and increased moisture is leading to rain being likely (70%-80% or higher) for Friday with medium chances (50%-70%) for rain for much of the rest of the weekend. Precipitation chances start to decrease early in the week due to the potential for a deeper trough moving through.

AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR through the valid TAF period.

Dry high pressure with FEW clouds AOA 20k ft MSL becoming SKC.
WLY/NWLY sfc winds around 10 kts this afternoon with a few higher gusts around 15 kts. Winds decoupling to light and variable this evening through tonight and into early Wednesday.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts expected through Thursday. There is potential for restrictions in showers Friday through the weekend.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
SC...None.

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Bacon Bridge
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Tue -- 05:34 AM EST     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:02 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:27 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 11:00 AM EST     2.43 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:14 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:11 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:18 PM EST     0.10 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:20 PM EST     1.89 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bacon Bridge, Ashley River, South Carolina, Tide feet

Pimlico
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Tue -- 05:50 AM EST     -0.27 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:02 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:26 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 11:43 AM EST     2.23 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:13 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:10 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:34 PM EST     0.27 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Pimlico, West Branch, Cooper River, South Carolina, Tide feet

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