Sunrise 6:16 AM   Sunset 8:41 PM Moonrise 2:48 AM   Moonset 6:01 PM

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FXUS62 KCAE 030007 AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 807 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
Slightly cooler and drier air will remain over the area through tonight. Moisture increases through the week and into the weekend with isolated to widely scattered convection possible each afternoon. Ridging builds into the area late this week and into the weekend resulting in above normal temperatures and Heat Index values near 110 possible.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
Key Message(s): - Dry and seasonably cool tonight.

Front remains south of the area with drier air from the northeast leading to clear skies. Some lingering clouds will be possible overnight in the CSRA but mostly clear skies expected.
Lows will be in the mid 60s across the north to around 70 in the south.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Key Message(s): - Heat Index values up to 105 possible Thursday afternoon

Ridging over the Deep South will remain in place through the short term. Surface high pressure will shift off of the East Coast on Wednesday night, leading to increasing moisture for Thursday.

With dry air still in place over most of the area for Wednesday we don't expect much in the way of rainfall. A few showers/storms will be possible across the southern FA but a subsidence inversion will hinder convection. HRRR ensemble members show little or no convective coverage across the southern Midlands and CSRA on Wednesday afternoon. With moisture creeping back into the area on Thursday there may be an isolated shower or weak storm, but again the subsidence inversion will hinder convective development. The higher dewpoints and warmer temps expected on Thursday should push Heat Index values into the 100 to 105 range. Reaching Heat Advisory criteria seems unlikely at this time. Highs will warm through the short term with highs in the mid to upper 90s on Thursday.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Key Message(s): - Heat Advisory Criteria possible Friday through Sunday - Thunderstorm chances increase late this week and this weekend

Upper ridging will build eastward over the forecast area in the first half of the long term. Moisture increases through SW flow with mean PWAT values from global ensembles rising to around 2 inches Friday, remaining slightly above normal through the long term.

Friday and Friday night: Expect partly cloudy conditions with weak southerly maritime flow increasing the moisture content for the area. Expect an increase in dew point temperatures to the mid 70s. Few showers in the afternoon with low coverage expected due to a capping inversion and ridging aloft. Clouds will slightly offset daytime heating, but expect mid to upper 90's for high temperatures. Higher humidity for the end of the week will raise peak heat index values above 105 with a max of 110.

A weak front will work into the Southeast over the weekend, but will likely remain west of the forecast area, keeping moisture in place. SW flow ahead of the front and convergence from a lee- side trough should promote scattered diurnal convection for the remainder of the long term. However widespread convection is unlikely given the upper ridging. With increasing moisture and warming 850mb temps, we will see highs mainly in the mid to upper 90s this weekend and Heat Index values as high as 110.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR conditions expected to dominate the period with brief early morning restrictions possible at AGS/DNL.

High pressure and dry air remain over the area with clear skies and winds quickly becoming light and variable. Main concern for the period will be the potential for MVFR cig restrictions at AGS/DNL during the early morning and sunrise hours. Confidence in MVFR cigs developing remains low so have continued with TEMPO and will monitor. With sunrise and onset of mixing MVFR cigs will quickly mix out with VFR conditions for the remainder of the period. Winds will remain light and variable through about midday then become easterly at 7 knots or less.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Moisture and potential for afternoon showers and thunderstorms and associated restrictions returns Thursday through Sunday.

FIRE WEATHER
Key messages(s): -Increased Fire Danger mid to late week.
-Rainfall probabilities remain relatively low mid week.

Increased fire danger during the Independence Day Holiday week, especially late week as temperatures rise again to well above normal values. Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms possibly may aid current dry conditions.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...None.
GA...None.

Bacon Bridge
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Tue -- 03:03 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:15 AM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:09 AM EDT     1.75 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:16 PM EDT     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:46 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:33 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:47 PM EDT     2.30 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bacon Bridge, Ashley River, South Carolina, Tide feet

Pimlico
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Tue -- 03:01 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:31 AM EDT     0.48 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:52 AM EDT     1.61 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:32 PM EDT     -0.24 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:45 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:32 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:30 PM EDT     2.11 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Pimlico, West Branch, Cooper River, South Carolina, Tide feet

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Columbia, SC,