Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Irmo, SC

KEY MESSAGES
- 1. Dry and hot weather continues ahead of a cold front on Sunday. Dry and cooler weather expected behind the front early next week.

DISCUSSION
Key Message 1: Dry and hot weather continues ahead of a cold front on Sunday. Dry and cooler weather expected behind the front early next week.

The forecast over the next 7 days remains some variation of hot and dry or seasonal temps and dry. The pattern is quite bland for any kind of active weather. The unseasonably warm conditions are forecast to continue today and Saturday. Today' we'll be sort of post cold frontal as a very weak boundary passes through the area. Weak downslope flow, high heights, and 90th percentile 850 hPa temps will promote temps in the low 90s again today. On Saturday, temps are likely to exceed daily records at both AGS and CAE, and may approach the monthly record of 96F at both sites. It is unlikely that we exceed 96F but the combination of 95th percentile 850 hPa temps + heating ahead of the approaching front + a dry airmass will result in record warmth Saturday. The front is forecast to approach on Sunday morning, with a chance of rainfall accompanying it as it passes.
This is a signal for a "high" pop/low QPF event, but it barely passes that mark. It wouldn't be surprising to see PoPs decrease from their low mark of the 30-40% range right now, with the best chance of rain closer to the NC border. A much more seasonal airmass (70s for highs) arrives early to mid next week, warming up again into the mid 80s by the end of the week. The most impactful part of all of this remains the drought conditions that we are in and the persistent fire weather concerns that we have. Though there are no significant signals for an overlap of strong winds and low RH values, min RH values every day (except SUnday) are forecast to be in the 20-25% range through the end of next week. SC has implemented a burn ban that is in effect until further notice. Please avoid burning as even small burns can become a problem with how dry we have been.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR conditions expected through the valid TAF period.

Mostly clear skies expected with the influence of high pressure over the area. Light and variable winds expected through sunrise then a light northerly wind will increase to around 6 to 8 knots and shift more westerly after 17z before diminishing again with sunset.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...High pressure to persist into the weekend. A cold front may lead to brief restrictions Sunday but high pressure returns early next week.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...None.
GA...None.