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FXUS62 KFFC 231050 AAA AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 650 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

New 12Z Aviation Discussion


SHORT TERM
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 249 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

Key Messages:

- No impactful changes were made to the forecast. Dry, warm conditions will persist.

- Tropical Storm Ophelia is currently just offshore of the southern portion of the NC coast. It will not impact north and central GA.

Forecast:

Patchy fog is possible this morning mainly in the valleys of far north GA. Sinking air on the western and southern periphery of Tropical Storm Ophelia will support dry conditions today with PWAT dropping below 1.0" across much of GA. In terms of cloud cover, expecting some fair-weather cumulus to develop this afternoon with cirrus overspreading the CWA courtesy of Ophelia's cloud shield.
Breezy conditions due to the gradient winds induced by Ophelia will lead to northwest winds of 10-15 mph and gusts of 20-25 mph from late morning to early evening. Highs will be in the 80s across the majority of the CWA -- comparable to yesterday.

Overnight lows will be in the mid-50s to lower 60s across much of the CWA, although temperatures could drop to the upper 40s in the higher terrain of northeast GA. Dry conditions will persist tomorrow (Sunday) as high pressure remains in place across the Southeast while Ophelia travels northward up the Mid-Atlantic coast. Less breezy conditions are expected. Highs will be in the lower 80s to right around 90 -- just a few degrees warmer than today at most.

Martin



LONG TERM
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 249 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

No significant changes to the long term forecast.

Our area will largely remain situated under 500mb troughing through much of the period with high pressure at the surface.
While the long term initially starts out on the dry side, we start to reintroduce a chance for precip by Tuesday in association with a shortwave passing through late Monday into Tuesday. Then by mid-week, global ensembles are still indicating an upper low developing and dropping south from Canada where it will set up across the Mid-Atlantic States. At least for the time being still looking like the better energy associated with this mid-week system will remain to the north and east. Though despite this, we do hang on to some precip chances through at least Thursday.
Beyond the mid-week point, guidance begins to diverge as far as evolution of the upper low. Another thing to monitor will be the development of a wedge on Wednesday that may stick around through the end of the work week.

Temperatures through the long term period will remain slightly above normal. Forecast highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s and forecast lows in the 50s and 60s. However, for areas under the influence of the wedge later in the week, temperatures will trend slightly below normal.

07



AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 648 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites thru the forecast period with FEW to SCT clouds at 050-070 today. Currently calm to light/VRB winds will give way to NW winds at 8-12 kts with gusts up to ~20 kts late this morning thru early evening. Winds will become calm to light/VRB once again after ~00z this evening, then increase tomorrow (Sunday) to 5-10 kts out of the W to NW by early afternoon.

//ATL Confidence
12Z Update
High confidence on all elements.

Martin



PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Athens 56 85 57 85 / 0 0 0 0 Atlanta 59 84 61 86 / 0 0 0 0 Blairsville 51 78 54 78 / 0 0 0 0 Cartersville 54 83 57 84 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 61 90 63 90 / 0 0 0 0 Gainesville 57 83 59 83 / 0 0 0 0 Macon 59 88 61 88 / 0 0 0 0 Rome 56 86 58 86 / 0 0 0 0 Peachtree City 56 85 58 87 / 0 0 0 0 Vidalia 62 88 64 89 / 0 0 0 0

FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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