Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Acworth, GA

SHORT TERM
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 240 PM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Moist summertime conditions have returned. Southerly flow drove PWATs on the 12z sounding to 1.87" (well over the 90th percentile for climotologic sounding data). The surface inversion this morning meant SFCCAPE was 0, however an MUCAPE of 950J/Kg at 973mb indicates the little mixing needed to get convection moving. Cloud cover currently covers the western half of the state in a thick mid-level cloud deck and rain has begun along the western counties. The heaviest rainfall is currently over northern AL and south middle TN, where significant training has occured resulting in flash flooding.
SPC mesoanalysis shows a tongue of strong moisture transport from the Gulf into the northwest CWA Upwind propogation vectors are mostly perpendicular/counter-to this moisture transport leading to training heavy rainfall. The main thing to watch over the coming hours is how this axis of heavy rainfall shifts eastward. There is the potential for this axis to slowly move into north GA and could pose a flash flood threat over the coming hours.

Taking a look at upper level flow, Ridging over the eastern CONUS has begun to be undercut by the ejecting southwest mid-level trough.
For the best look at this feature see 500mb vorticity and 2pvu surface. As the feature moves across the south (currently over TX/OK), expect increasing showers and thunderstorms out ahead as the ridge is locally weakened. PWATs are expected to continue climbing as the system approaches, with high ensemble certainty in PWATs of ~2". This would be near the max for the day's climotologic soundings data. Given the poor upper level steering through the coming days, any thunderstorms that do form may be slow moving, training, efficient rain makers, and thus pose a flash flood threat. This explains the Slight-Marginal risk of excessive rainfall from the WPC. The mean storm mode through the next couple days, as the system passes, will see showers spreading over North Georgia today (out of the northwest). Precip will taper overnight as diurnal instability weakens, before seeing further surges going into Monday and Tuesday afternoon alongside diurnal heating. Lightning will be spotty within the showers.

Mean QPF through the period sits around 1 to 2.5 inches across north Georgia (T-1" across central GA). Given the precip mode, however, a few pockets with significantly heavier rainfall are possible.
Ensemble 10th-90th percentile shows spread over portions of north Georgia (especially around the mountains) as high as 4+ inches. This is likely a product of models struggling to resolve messy and efficient precipitation with orographic influence and/or training covection potential. That said, would not be too surprised if a few pockets saw as much as 4"+ through the next day our two. Another factor to take into consideration is the continued cloud coverage and rain's effect on instability. Cloud cover will likely suppress some instability each afternoon. This means the greatest chance for thunderstorms may be further south (towards the ATL metro) where greater instability may develop, and thus result in a slightly higher risk of excessive rainfall down towards the metro.

In short (through Monday), expect around 1" to 2.5" across north Georgia (including the mountains and towards the north metro), being prepared should significantly more fall. T-1" is more likely across central Georgia, with a lower chance of 2"+. This pattern will likely continue through Tuesday. Be aware of areas which may receive significant rainfall two days in a row as these areas will be more prone to flooding. At this time, the flash flooding rain threat remains too uncertain/isolated to warrant a flood watch.

Temperatures through the period will be moderated by the cloud coverage and rainfall. Highs today through Tuesday will be around 80 with lows holding in the upper 60s to near 70.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday morning through next Saturday)
Issued at 240 PM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

We pick up the long term on Tuesday with what looks to be another rainy and wet day some across north and parts of central Georgia.
Compared to many of the ensemble runs yesterday, models have actually picked up on a larger chunk of the upper level system getting sheared off and impacting us through Tuesday. This system will likely be almost directly overhead or just to west on Tuesday, with a southward to SEward progression that will lead to a slight lowering of heights, slightly cooler air aloft, and some differential vorticity advection that will play a role in helping generate another round of showers and storms. Uncertainty as to how widespread this will be, as ongoing convection today and additional expected storms tomorrow will likely play a complex role in how the actual upper level environment looks through latent heat effects.
Models show a variety of outcomes, but all produce storms capable of decent rainfall rates. Given PWATs will remain near or above 2" across many areas, rainfall rates of 1-2" an hour will be possible if convective activity occurs. Cloud cover may limit surface heating to an extent, which would impact SBCAPE potential. That's a lot of caveats, but the take home is that you should expect some rain and storms across the area, but there is some uncertainty as to just how numerous actual storms may be.

By Wednesday, larger system over the upper Great Plains will be drawing copious moisture into it that will spread over most of the eastern half of the CONUS. In addition, large Bermuda surface high off the Atlantic coast will be aiding the moisture transport. What we will lack compared to previous days is the extra forcing mechanisms, so expect more traditional diurnal showers and thunderstorms across much of the area. This continues into Thursday.
By Friday, rain chances increase a bit as ensembles show a frontal system approaching north Georgia but stalling. Most members have that stall short of the CWA, meaning we could see some enhanced moisture pooling and potential for rain and thunderstorms. Diurnal chances of showers and storms stick with us through the end of the long term.

Much like yesterday, we continue to see various outcomes within the ensemble guidance and operational model runs for the tropical wave within the Gulf that spins off the CAG. The most that can be said is that it still needs monitoring, but uncertainty in what any impacts (if any) look like remains very high. At the very minimum it will likely be a source of very high moisture air that could be tapped into by any systems that approach the area going into next week.
Stay tuned.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 137 PM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

VFR conditions this afternoon degrade to IFR overnight. Cigs remain low into late morning to early aftn Monday. SHRA move into area with Iso -tsra are psbl this afternoon. PoPs decrease overnight but remain 20 to 30 percent for metro sites. Chances return Monday morning with -tsra chances in the aftn.

//ATL Confidence
18Z Update
Medium confidence all elements.

SM

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Athens 69 80 68 81 / 20 60 70 80 Atlanta 70 80 69 82 / 50 70 60 80 Blairsville 65 76 64 77 / 40 90 60 80 Cartersville 70 80 69 83 / 70 70 60 80 Columbus 71 86 70 87 / 20 30 40 50 Gainesville 69 78 68 79 / 40 80 60 80 Macon 71 84 69 83 / 10 50 50 60 Rome 69 80 68 84 / 60 80 50 80 Peachtree City 69 81 68 83 / 50 60 60 70 Vidalia 71 89 72 87 / 0 10 20 20

FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.