Sunrise 6:57 AM   Sunset 8:15 PM Moonrise 4:30 PM   Moonset 4:31 AM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall

FXUS64 KLUB 200548 AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1248 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Will maintain a cool and wet forecast for the period from late tonight through the day Saturday. Elevated instability will be present above the cool boundary layer air mass in place across the forecast area, although there will likely a be a fairly healthy amount of convective inhibition with an inversion located just above the level of highest instability. However, the combination of isentropic upglide and dynamic lift from an approaching mid/upper level short wave trough should be sufficient to release the instability. That instability will be maximized across the southern third of the forecast area and centered around the 12Z-15Z time frame with progged MUCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg clearly sufficient for thunderstorms and potentially even some hail. Upglide on near the 295 and 300 K surfaces will initially act on the elevated instability across the Rolling Plains late tonight, but increasing lift from the approaching trough will see convective initiation across eastern New Mexico with showers and some thunderstorms moving eastward across the forecast area. The inherited PoPs of near or at 100 percent looks okay although there is some concern about with how widespread the response to the lift will be given the open nature to the trough. However, there is not enough evidence at this time to be backing off precip chances at this time.

Temperatures will be the other issue with MVFR ceilings expected through much/all of the period after moving back across the forecast area early this evening will result in a narrow diurnal range. NBM and MOS already handling this well with no significant movement away needed.

LONG TERM
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

The upper trough axis will shift east of our area after sunset on Saturday with a corresponding decrease in coverage of showers expected from west to east through the evening and overnight period.
Even so, a saturated lower atmosphere and continuing upslope flow support maintaining low chance PoPs area-wide on Saturday night, with some very light showers or drizzle possible over the entire area through early Sunday morning. Things will dry out through the rest of the day on Sunday as the upslope flow component weakens and surface ridging builds into the region, but lingering cloudiness will keep temperatures on the cool side with highs Sunday afternoon only reaching around 60. Dry and warm conditions will then return Monday through Tuesday as upper ridging builds beneath a quick- moving upper trough over the Midwest. This Midwest system is progged to send another cold front through our area late Tuesday into Wednesday which will set the stage for our next round of thunderstorm chances mid/late next week. Initially these precip chances should be more isentropically driven on Wednesday, potentially transitioning into a more classic dryline setup Thursday into Friday within deeper southwest flow aloft. It is worth noting the large spread within deterministic and ensemble guidance which results in large uncertainty and a large range of possible outcomes. Nevertheless, potential does exist for a more active weather period during the second half of next week.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

MVFR ceilings are expected to prevail through most of the forecast period, especially at KPVW and KLBB as rainfall becomes widespread across our area. Periods of thunderstorms are most likely between the overnight hours through late this morning.



LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Frederick, OK,