Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Matador, TX

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

01Z upper air analysis reveals a subtropical ridge arcing over the southern tranche of the U.S., with the center of the mid-level anticyclone located over central N TX on water-vapor imagery. An amplifying, positively-tilted trough was also digging into the Pacific Northwest, which will continue to cause the subtropical to shift towards the Mississippi River Valley throughout the next 24 hours. A small field of towering cu over Briscoe County earlier has since failed from the strong subsidence associated with the ridging and lack of low-level convergence, and the shallow cu field is otherwise eroding as vertical mixing begins to cease.

At the surface, southeasterly winds were breezy and will remain so throughout the overnight hours, as leeward pressure falls generated by a 250 mb jet streak approaching 100 kt emerges over the northern Rocky Mountains. A surface trough was located west of the NM state line, keeping the entire CWA within the moist sector. Temperatures for tomorrow morning were raised a few degrees, as the breezy, southerly winds and moist airmass will restrict the full of effects of radiational cooling from coming to fruition. Surface winds will accelerate by the late morning hours Friday, with sustained speeds between 20-30 mph and gusts to 30-35 mph forecast area-wide. High temperatures will be similar to today, in the middle 90s, as the rising geopotential heights will eventually neutralize by Friday evening as the apex of the ridge moves east of the I-35 corridor.

A high-based cu field will once again develop in concert with peak boundary-layer mixing, but strong subsidence and the lack of any convergence will preclude storm development Friday. The subtropical ridge is expected to continue shifting eastward heading into the beginning of the weekend, with the positively-tilted trough pivoting into the northern Rocky Mountains. Surface winds will remain elevated at around 20-30 mph tomorrow night into Saturday morning, as leeward pressure falls will be maintained from cyclogenesis far to the north of the CWA amidst a clear sky and warm temperatures.

Sincavage

LONG TERM
(Saturday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

The subtropical ridge is forecast to stall over the spine of the Appalachian Mountains late this weekend and into next week, which will slow the eastward progression of the positively-tilted trough digging into the Intermountain West. The CWA will, therefore, be sandwiched between these two amplified, large-scale features, causing the monsoonal fetch, which is already present over the southern Rocky Mountains, to deflect slightly eastward towards W TX late Sunday night. The superposition of the monsoonal fetch is forecast to be maintained through at least the middle part of next week, as the subtropical ridge gradually sloshes towards the Eastern Seaboard while continuing to amplify to near 598 dam.

Persistence forecasting has once again been applied for the weekend, with similar high temperatures expected Saturday and Sunday, albeit slightly cooler Sunday. Cyclogenesis of sub-1000 mb lows are forecast to occur daily across the northern Great Plains, and will maintain the strong, leeward pressure falls across the entire region. Low-end windy conditions will persist through the weekend before finally tapering off Monday, though still breezy, as the northern-stream shortwave trough ejects into Manitoba. Prospects for monsoonal thunderstorms continue to be forecast across portions of the Caprock, primarily to the west of the I-27 corridor. The best chances appear to be Monday night, as the CWA will be within close proximity or entirely within the right entrance-region to the 250 mb jet streak. The southerly component throughout the steering layer (i.e., 700-300 mb wind) will facilitate the prolonged maintenance of moist, isentropic ascent atop the moist and unstable airmass. Wind shear throughout the deep- and cloud-bearing layers will be weak, which will keep the risk low for severe-caliber storms. Locally heavy rainfall and a few cases of flash flooding will be the primary hazard, which is typical of monsoonal patterns. NBM PoPs have been maintained with this prognostication, and temperatures are forecast to be near seasonal norms throughout all of next week.

Sincavage

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

VFR next 24 hours. The southeasterly breeze will taper off tonight, with winds veering towards the south-southwest by dawn Friday. Winds will then accelerate to near 20 kt by tomorrow afternoon KCDS, KLBB, and KPVW; and will remain elevated into late tomorrow night. Check density altitude.

Sincavage

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.