Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Silver Lake, NC

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
Convection has been slow to fire up over the CWA so far this afternoon, and based on Cu development so far, it looks like best chances over the next few hours will be along the I-95 corridor and points north and west. With the activity over SE NC and SE NC being largely driven by surface convergence and little significant upper- level dynamics, it should weaken soon after sunset. Moderate surface- based instability will remain in place Tuesday, however 5H heights build a little from the ridge off the SE coast, and should limit areal coverage of convection to scattered at best, and mainly focused on the sea breeze front and Piedmont trough. Overnight lows will fall to the mid 70s, with highs Tuesday in the low 90s, and heat indices around 100.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Deep ridging lingers off the Southeast coast through the short term period. Soundings are showing a little bit of a subsidence inversion around 700mb as the ridge expands some northwestward.
With plenty of instability and a rather weak cap, isolated convection is certainly possible Wednesday afternoon especially along the sea breeze and Piedmont trough. Above normal temps with lows in the mid 70s both Tuesday and Wednesday night. Highs Wednesday around 92-94F with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s - heat indices in the 100-104F is very likely but less confidence in hitting the 105F mark for an advisory.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Despite lingering subsidence inversion and drier air aloft, pops increase Thursday afternoon and evening (to 25-40%) as a 500mb trough and weak surface front approaches, moving across the area late Thursday/early Friday. Heat indices Thursday afternoon will again likely eclipse 100F, and may approach the 105F criteria mark. Fairly typical summer day on Friday with near normal temps and afternoon convection. Mid-upper ridge builds over the eastern US Saturday through Monday, which will lead to a warming trend for late weekend/early next week. Low chance pops currently centered along sea breeze and NE SC (where ridging is forecasted to be weakest) for Saturday through Monday.

AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A moderately unstable airmass remains in place across the area, although slightly lower precipitable water, and building 500 mb heights should yield lesser areal coverage of showers/tstms through Tuesday. KLBT will be in closest proximity to convection over the next few hours, however with the sea breeze running through KMYR, KCRE and KILM, certainly can't rule out a pop-up shower or tstm there. Any convection that does pop up should die off after sunset. Stratus makes a run at KLBT from the north late tonight, but looks like MVFR ceilings will stay just north.

Extended Outlook...Brief restrictions due to widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are possible through Friday.

MARINE
Through Tuesday...Bermuda high pressure will maintain a moderate SW wind on the order of 15 kts through Tuesday.
Showers/tstms should remain isolated to widely scattered in nature, A southerly 5 sec wind wave around 3 ft will persist, along with an 8 sec SE swell, around 1-2 ft.

Tuesday Night through Saturday...Ridging offshore will maintain southwesterly winds across the local coastal waters through Saturday, around 15-20 kts through Thursday decreasing to 10 kts or less Friday afternoon and Saturday as the ridge slowly expands westward. Seas 3-4 ft Tuesday night through Thursday night lowers to 2-3 ft Friday and Saturday, primarily SSW wind wave with a weak SE swell mixed in. Best chance for scattered thunderstorms over the coastal waters will be Thursday night through Friday night.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.