Tuesday, January19, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Silver Lake, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 5:30PM Tuesday January 19, 2021 1:52 PM EST (18:52 UTC) Moonrise 11:18AMMoonset 11:57PM Illumination 38% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 1159 Am Est Tue Jan 19 2021
.small craft advisory in effect from late tonight through Wednesday morning...
This afternoon..W winds 5 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Wed..W winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft, building to 3 to 4 ft in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers.
Thu night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat..N winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
AMZ200 1159 Am Est Tue Jan 19 2021
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A ridge of high pressure will move offshore this morning. Winds will increase this afternoon through tonight ahead of a dry cold front that should move offshore Wednesday morning. Another front will reach the area late Thursday night and Friday bringing clouds and rain. Dry weather is expected for the weekend as canadian high pressure builds in.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Silver Lake, NC
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location: 34.14, -77.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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FXUS62 KILM 191635 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1138 AM EST Tue Jan 19 2021

SYNOPSIS. Seasonable temperatures, dry and occasionally breezy conditions will continue into mid week as a series of cold fronts cross the coast. A warming trend will follow as high pressure over the SE states moves offshore. Rain chances increase late this week as a front moves across and temporarily stalls just south of the area Fri. Canadian high pressure from the north will provide cooler and drier weather this upcoming weekend.

UPDATE. Very little tweaking needed, mainly involving meshing the latest wx elements, T, winds, and etc, to the ongoing forecast.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Surface high pressure centered across south Georgia has a northward- extending ridge axis that will push across the eastern Carolinas this morning. Light and variable winds will become solidly southwest behind the departing ridge axis this afternoon. Skies should remain clear and model blends and MOS products are tightly clustered with forecast highs in the upper 50s for most areas. The beaches from North Myrtle Beach through Cape Fear should run several degrees cooler as this afternoon's southwest flow will be moving onshore across water temps only in the lower 50s.

Winds of 25-30 knots just above the surface will develop tonight ahead of a dry cold front. While surface winds should remain less than 10 mph, these winds aloft plus some late night cloud cover should maintain a turbulent boundary layer. My forecast lows are a couple degrees above MOS consensus with low- mid 40s most areas. The thickest cloud cover appears to move across South Carolina between 2- 5 AM Wednesday morning when models show saturated conditions between 5-10kft aloft. GFS and NAM isentropic analysis along the 295K theta surface within the cloud layer shows neutral to slight downglide occurring during that time, so I'll maintain a dry forecast. Sunshine and breezy northwest winds should return on Wednesday with highs 54-59 expected.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. Weak surface high will shift southward over Florida on Wednesday night. Morning lows should occur just before the arrival of mid and high level clouds, dropping into the mid 30s on Thursday morning. Cloud cover and subsequent rain chances continue to increase throughout the day as moisture spreads eastward over the area. A nearly stationary front sinks southward on Thursday night, bringing the best chance of rain, especially in our southern areas.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Front continues to move southward on Friday morning as rain chances decrease throughout the morning into the early afternoon. The timing of this front's progression through the area will influence afternoon temperatures and how late in the day showers remain possible. In general, expect the front to be well south of the area by Friday night with rain chances coming to an end. High pressure builds into the area Saturday and Sunday as cooler and drier conditions develop with temperatures slightly below climo both days. High pressure moves offshore and weakens slightly late Monday. Models don't have a good picture of a low pressure system developing over the Lower Mississippi River Valley early next week, but portions of the area could see rain chances return as a warm front lifts north of the area through Tuesday.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. High pressure will be in control into the evening hours. A weak cold front will move into the region overnight, with only a high stratocu ceiling expected. Gusy northwest winds on Wednesday.

Extended Outlook . MVFR conditions are expected along with a low probability of IFR conditions late Thursday night into Friday as a wave of low pressure brings rain to the area.

MARINE. Through Wednesday . High pressure centered over south Georgia has a ridge axis extending to the north that will sweep across the Carolina coastal waters late this morning. Our northwest winds will diminish significantly as the ridge axis approaches, then will back to the southwest this afternoon. Wind speeds should increase tonight as a dry cold front approaches from the west. This boundary should move offshore around daybreak Wednesday, accompanied by a period of 15-25 knot winds. A Small Craft Advisory will be issued for the North Carolina waters where the strongest winds should exist. Slowly diminishing northwest winds are then expected during the day Wednesday.

Buoys and models continue to show no significant swell affecting our portion of the Atlantic. Our waves over the next 36 hours should be exclusively wind chop with periods shorter than 6 seconds. Wednesday Night through Saturday . Offshore winds continue to diminish overnight Wednesday and seas become 1-2 feet. Winds become SW and increase to 15-20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots on Thursday ahead of the next cold front. This could bring another brief period of SCA conditions into Friday. A west to east boundary across the area late Thursday will drop southward on Friday and Friday night. NW winds around 10-15 knots late Friday become northerly on Friday night, seas 2-4 feet. High pressure builds into the area on Saturday as northerly winds increase in strength to near 15-20 knots. Winds decrease slightly throughout the day to 10-15 knots late Saturday.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. SC . None. NC . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to noon EST Wednesday for AMZ250-252.

SYNOPSIS . DCH UPDATE . DCH NEAR TERM . TRA SHORT TERM . 21 LONG TERM . 21 AVIATION . 43 MARINE . TRA/21


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 5 mi187 min W 2.9 54°F 1005 hPa27°F
MBIN7 5 mi52 min SSW 9.9 G 15 54°F 1025.5 hPa (-2.3)
WLON7 6 mi52 min 58°F 46°F1026.1 hPa (-2.4)
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 10 mi52 min S 14 G 15 52°F 52°F1025.7 hPa (-2.3)
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 12 mi44 min SSW 14 G 18 51°F 53°F1026.2 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 12 mi45 min 53°F2 ft
41108 29 mi52 min 54°F2 ft
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 32 mi44 min 54°F 64°F
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 35 mi44 min WSW 9.7 G 12 49°F 54°F1027 hPa
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 49 mi32 min SSW 3.9 G 5.8 57°F1026 hPa

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC10 mi59 minSW 1010.00 miFair59°F26°F28%1026.1 hPa
Brunswick County Airport, NC16 mi57 minSSW 710.00 miFair55°F32°F42%1027.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KILM

Wind History from ILM (wind in knots)
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W14W6SW3W5CalmCalmCalmCalmNW4NW5N5N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3W7SW6SW10
1 day agoW13W9W12W9SW5SW5SW4SW7W8W7W6SW6SW7W6SW5SW3SW6SW9W12W9W13W14W14W20
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W16W11W8W9SW13SW12W11W10W9SW7W5SW5CalmCalmSW5SW6W10SW7SW6W11SW7

Tide / Current Tables for Campbell Island, North Carolina
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Campbell Island
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:15 AM EST     3.52 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:15 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:49 AM EST     0.19 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:17 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:45 PM EST     3.59 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:29 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 08:11 PM EST     0.09 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:57 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.33.53.42.92.11.40.80.40.20.61.62.53.13.53.63.22.41.60.90.40.10.31.12.1

Tide / Current Tables for Wilmington, North Carolina
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Wilmington
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:00 AM EST     3.79 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:16 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:34 AM EST     0.21 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:17 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:30 PM EST     3.86 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:29 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 08:56 PM EST     0.09 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:57 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.13.63.83.62.921.30.70.30.30.91.92.93.53.83.83.32.41.50.80.30.10.51.5

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.