Sunday, August25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Silver Lake, NC

Version 3.4
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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:38AMSunset 7:48PM Sunday August 25, 2019 12:58 PM EDT (16:58 UTC) Moonrise 12:21AMMoonset 2:56PM Illumination 24% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 1015 Am Edt Sun Aug 25 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from 2 pm edt this afternoon through Monday morning...
Rest of today..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt this afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A slight chance of showers. A slight chance of tstms late.
Tonight..NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A slight chance of tstms in the evening. A slight chance of showers.
Mon..NE winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A slight chance of showers in the morning.
Mon night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Tue..N winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Wed..W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu..NE winds 10 kt, becoming e. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 1015 Am Edt Sun Aug 25 2019
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Strong high pressure will build in from the north today and tomorrow as low pressure moves ne off the southeast u.s. Coast. Some gradual tropical or subtropical development is possible with this system, and mariners should Monitor the forecast closely for any potential changes. A weaker pressure pattern is expected to develop over the area during Tuesday, before another front impacts the area around midweek.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Silver Lake, NC
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location: 34.14, -77.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 251527
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
1128 am edt Sun aug 25 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will extend down into the carolinas from the north
as low pressure tracks north up through the offshore waters off
of the southeast coast early this week, lifting off to the
northeast through midweek. A cold front will cross the area late
Wednesday into Thursday, possibly stalling nearby next weekend.

Update
Dreary day pretty much as expected with low clouds and even some
patchy light drizzle showing up on radar and in observations. I
did add this to the weather element for the next few hours but
only in some areas and patchy at that. Some clearing earlier
just to the west of the CWA seems to have filled in. The hrrr
does show some clearing late and will monitor but we do have
this trend in the forecast currently. All in all the only change
was the drizzle added.

Near term through Monday
Fairly strong ~1030mb high pressure centered over maine and eastern
canada will continue ridging south into the area today as low
pressure begins to lift NE from florida well offshore. This pattern
will set up breezy NE winds (esp. Near the coast), below normal
temperatures, and lower stratus stratocumulus clouds across the
area. The atmosphere will begin drying esp. In the mid and upper
levels through the day, and overall think many locations will be dry
today. Kept in some small pops near the coast for any sea breeze
and or speed convergence activity but with aforementioned drying
occurring, think any QPF will be very light if any. Pleasant
night on tap tonight with dry wx and lows in the mid to upper
60s near 70 immediate coast. Wouldn't be surprised to see a few
low 60s for far inland locations. Guidance has been a bit too
warm moist behind the front and have made some minor adjustments
to t TD fcst to account for this.

The potential tropical or subtropical system will likely make its
closest approach to the area on Monday, but at this point is
expected to be around 300 miles ese of CAPE fear by 26 18z. As a
result, unless something drastic changes, no direct impacts are
expected across the area although there will be elevated surf rip
current risk esp. At our more easterly facing beaches. Otherwise am
forecasting pleasant weather with temps a little below normal again
and very low chances of rain with high pressure dominating at the
surface and aloft.

Short term Monday night through Tuesday night
Low pressure will move off to the east-northeast Mon night into
tues with a deep w-nw flow across the area on the back end
shifting around to the w-sw late tues. This will draw some
moisture back into the carolinas ahead of an approaching cold
front, leading to sct convection across the area for tues as
ridge slips east and shortwave pushes in from the west. Pcp
water values will increase about a half inch, running near 2
inches by tues aftn. Temps will rebound through the period to
near normal.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday
Mid to upper trough extending down from the great lakes will
dig down into the carolinas pushing a cold front east on wed.

The downslope flow may act to limit convection but expect some
shwrs tstms ahead of the front wed. High pressure will build in
behind front across the carolinas, but the front may stall out
just east as trough flattens out ridge builds back from the
east. This may produce clouds and unsettled weather, especially
along the coast heading into next weekend. Temps will be back up
around normal with highs between 85 and 90 most places and
overnight lows just over 70.

Aviation 18z Sunday through Thursday
A cloudy and unseasonably cool day in store. Ceilings will be
predominately MVFR. North northeast will continue today as high
pressure to the north combined with a tropical low tracking
northeast off the coast tighten the pressure gradient. Gusts to 20
kts will be common along the coast this afternoon. Ceilings will
slowly lift to nearVFR by evening.

Extended... MainlyVFR Mon and Tue as high pressure dominates and
tropical or subtropical system lifts NE off the coast. Next
frontal system Wed Thu timeframe may bring additional
restrictions.

Marine
No change to previous thinking with NE winds and associated short
period seas expected to increase to small craft advisory levels
through the day and continue tonight as pressure gradient
tightens between strong high pressure N of area and low
pressure moving NE from florida. Seas will be considerably
smaller near south facing beaches given NE direction though.

Still expect winds seas to slowly subside through the day
tomorrow as high pressure north of area starts to weaken.

However will obviously need to watch potential
tropical subtropical system well offshore for any potential
changes.

Northerly winds will back around to the w-sw Mon night through
tues as low pressure moves off to the e-ne. This weakening
offshore flow will allow seas to diminish from 4 to 5 ft Mon eve
down to 3 ft or less tues into wed. May see seas spike back up
again late Wed into thurs as a cold front moves through the
waters. This front may linger across the waters through late
week.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... Beach hazards statement until 8 pm edt this evening for scz054-
056.

Nc... Beach hazards statement until 8 pm edt this evening for ncz106-
108.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to noon edt
Monday for amz250-252-254-256.

Synopsis... Ilm
update... Shk
near term... Mcw
short term... Rgz
long term... Rgz
aviation... 43
marine... Rgz mcw


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WLON7 6 mi58 min 76°F 84°F1017.5 hPa (+0.3)
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 10 mi58 min N 14 G 17 75°F 82°F1016.9 hPa (+0.3)
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 12 mi50 min NNE 16 G 21 75°F 83°F1016.8 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 12 mi48 min 83°F4 ft
41108 29 mi58 min 84°F4 ft
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 32 mi50 min NNE 19 G 25 76°F 84°F1016.2 hPa
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 35 mi50 min NE 14 G 19 73°F 83°F1017.6 hPa
41119 35 mi68 min 83°F2 ft

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC10 mi65 minN 1010.00 miOvercast76°F69°F79%1017.5 hPa
Brunswick County Airport, NC16 mi63 minNNE 710.00 miOvercast74°F68°F82%1017.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KILM

Wind History from ILM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr6NE8E5E7NE7NE8NE11NE10NE13NE11NE9NE9N9N8N9N6N7N7N8N7N8N11N10NE12
1 day agoW9SW9SW4S9
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CalmS3SW3SW4W6N4CalmNE3NE3CalmNE4NE8N11N9NE7
2 days agoS9SW9S9
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Tide / Current Tables for Campbell Island, North Carolina
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Campbell Island
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Sun -- 01:21 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:28 AM EDT     3.64 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:21 AM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:56 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 04:55 PM EDT     4.30 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.91.52.53.33.63.63.32.61.710.50.30.31.12.33.54.14.34.13.62.92.21.61.1

Tide / Current Tables for Wilmington, North Carolina
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Wilmington
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:12 AM EDT     0.82 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:21 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:13 AM EDT     3.91 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 12:06 PM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:56 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:40 PM EDT     4.63 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.811.92.93.73.93.83.42.51.60.90.50.20.51.42.844.54.64.33.72.92.21.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.