Saturday, January18, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Silver Lake, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 5:28PM Saturday January 18, 2020 10:37 AM EST (15:37 UTC) Moonrise 1:14AMMoonset 12:37PM Illumination 41% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 830 Am Est Sat Jan 18 2020
.small craft advisory in effect from 6 pm est this evening through Sunday afternoon...
Today..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming E 10 kt late this morning, then becoming S 10 to 15 kt late. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A slight chance of showers early this afternoon. A chance of showers late.
Tonight..SW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun..W winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 7 ft. A slight chance of showers in the morning.
Sun night..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
Mon..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
Wed..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
AMZ200 830 Am Est Sat Jan 18 2020
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure will slide offshore today. A cold front will push off the coast and across the area Sunday morning. In its wake, a strong, dry and cold canadian high pressure will affect the carolinas next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Silver Lake, NC
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location: 34.14, -77.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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FXUS62 KILM 181334 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 834 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2020

SYNOPSIS. A cold front will move across the region late tonight into early Sunday morning. Cold and dry conditions will develop in the wake of the front and persist for much of next week as arctic high pressure builds in.

UPDATE. Based on observations I have slowed the increase in hourly temperatures and dewpoints today as the shallow cold airmass lingering from yesterday will take some time to leave. This also necessitates delaying the onset of rain chances by a few hours as low air temperatures and dewpoints out at Frying Pan Shoals buoy show the warm front is also running later than forecast.

Across the coastal waters buoy observations were 1 to 1.5 feet higher than forecast as there is still a strong lingering 6-second northeast wave from stronger winds yesterday and last night. Sea heights should tend to decrease during the day, but will build again tonight as stronger south winds develop. No changes to the Small Craft Advisory

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/. High pressure fora majority of the day today with dry conditions and seasonable, near normal high temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s. A warm front advances into the Carolinas tonight and brings chances for light rain and offshore thunderstorms. A cold front pushes into the area from the west toward Sunday morning with gusty winds shifting from the southwest to the northwest through the day Sunday. High temperatures will top out in the low to mid 60s before cold air advection brings in much cooler weather for the beginning of the work week.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. Arctic high pressure will be moving into and across the region through the short term period. 850mb temperatures drop to minus 10 or so. Lows Monday morning will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s with afternoon highs struggling to make the lower 40s. Tuesday morning will be even colder aided by a reinforcing shortwave in the mean flow and slightly lower winds.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Cold and dry conditions will continue for the first few days of the extended period as a reinforcing shortwave moves through the mean trough. The surface high will slowly move off the Delmarva Region through Friday and only then will there be an appreciable warm up. Lows remain well below freezing Wednesday and Thursday mornings with highs struggling to reach into the 50s. By Friday and into next weekend a return flow develops ahead of next system which seems decent at this point but recent trends have been for these types of systems to weaken in time as they approach.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Southerly flow will return to the region today. There will be some wind shear during climb out this morning, with southwest winds at 45 kts just off the deck. Time height indicates moisture will be on the increase tonight, with light showers expected to break out by 09Z.

Extended Outlook . Showers possible Saturday night into early Sunday, could briefly lower ceilings and vsby to MVFR early Sunday. Wind shift to the north/northwest Sunday with VFR conditions early next week.

MARINE. High pressure influence keeps wind and wave conditions relatively benign for the next 12 to 16 hours before a series of approaching fronts brings chances for showers and thunderstorms and increasing winds/waves. Waves on the order of 4 to 7 feet at 6 seconds and winds 15 to 25 kts with gusts to 30 out of the southwest into Saturday night will bring concerns for small craft. Wind shift to the northwest expected mid to late Sunday morning as cold front approaches. Wind and wave conditions should improve offshore by Sunday afternoon/evening.

The theme for the short and long term marine forecast is basically a northerly component to the winds with small craft conditions probable for the first couple of days. With cold air advection, winds and moreso seas will reach criteria Tuesday and Wednesday abating some late in the week. Conditions will be a little more marginal Monday as there appears to be a lull in the cold air advection.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. SC . None. NC . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 5 PM EST Sunday for AMZ250-252-254-256.



SYNOPSIS . SHK UPDATE . TRA NEAR TERM . MCK SHORT TERM . SHK LONG TERM . SHK AVIATION . 43


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WLON7 6 mi56 min 44°F 56°F1033.5 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 10 mi56 min 44°F 54°F1032.7 hPa
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 12 mi90 min NE 16 G 19 45°F 56°F1033.5 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 12 mi58 min 56°F4 ft
41108 29 mi68 min 58°F4 ft
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 32 mi90 min ENE 16 G 21 46°F 60°F1033.3 hPa
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 35 mi90 min E 16 G 23 41°F 55°F1033.8 hPa
41119 35 mi108 min 55°F3 ft
SSBN7 36 mi46 min 2 ft

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC10 mi45 minE 510.00 miFair43°F19°F40%1033.7 hPa
Brunswick County Airport, NC16 mi43 minNE 510.00 miFair44°F32°F62%1033.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KILM

Wind History from ILM (wind in knots)
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N9NW10NW9NW7NW8NW11NW8NW11NW8N8N5N10N11--NE10N11N12N14
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2 days agoE5E8E6E8SE6E5SE6SE3CalmS5S3CalmS3S3S3S4SW3CalmW3SW6SW6W7SW8SW8

Tide / Current Tables for Campbell Island, North Carolina
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Campbell Island
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:14 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:09 AM EST     3.96 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:16 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:55 AM EST     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 12:37 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 03:25 PM EST     3.68 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:27 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 10:17 PM EST     -0.29 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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23.13.743.83.12.31.60.90.2-0.10.41.42.53.33.63.63.12.21.50.80.2-0.3-0.1

Tide / Current Tables for Wilmington, North Carolina
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Wilmington
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:14 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:54 AM EST     4.26 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:16 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:40 AM EST     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 12:37 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:10 PM EST     3.96 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:27 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 11:02 PM EST     -0.30 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.22.53.54.14.33.93.22.31.50.70.1-0.10.61.92.93.643.83.12.21.40.70.1-0.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.