Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Channel Islands Beach, CA

.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...18/205 AM.

The marine layer is about 5000 ft deep and marine layer stratus covers much of the csts and vlys of LA and VTA counties. The low clouds should dissipate earlier than normal as the pressure grads shift offshore. There will be a 10 mb offshore trend in the E/W direction and this will help develop a Santa Ana wind event despite not much in the way of actual offshore flow or upper support. Most of the passes and canyons will have gusty NE winds but the advisory level gusts will be confined to the mtns. Almost all of the csts and vlys will see 4 to 8 degrees of warming today with max temps across the csts and vlys in the 70s and lower 80s.

There will be weaker offshore flow on Tuesday but it will hinder any attempt of the marine layer to reform with only the Long Beach area vulnerable to morning low clouds. Any canyon winds that do develop in the morning will be well under advisory criteria. The warming trend will continue with 1 to 3 degrees of warming expected across the csts; 3 to 6 degrees in he vlys and 5 to 8 further inland. The inland areas greater warming trend is due to the lack of cool air advection that will occur today. The max temps across the csts/vlys will be 4 to 8 degrees above normal.

Wednesday should be a sunny day with little or no marine layer stratus in the morning. It will be the warmest day for the csts and vlys as max temps there will warm another 1 to 3 degrees. Look for mid 70s to lower 80s across the csts and 80s in the vlys.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...18/205 AM.

Weak upper level flow will be atop of Srn CA for the xtnd period.
There will be few if any weather concerns during the period. At the sfc there will be increasing onshore flow each day. By the weekend there will be moderate to strong onshore flow. The marine layer clouds will also increase in coverage and duration every day. By the weekend there will be a strong enough onshore push to the W that will generate gusty near advisory level gusts in the western Antelope Vly and foothills. The increase in onshore flow and marine layer coupled with slowly falling hgts will bring about a 4 day cooling trend. Friday will have the most noticeable cooling of 4 to 6 degrees. By Sunday max temps will be in the mid 60s to mid 70s across the csts and upper 70s and lower 80s in the vlys. These max temps are 1 to 3 degrees blo normal.

AVIATION
18/0903Z.

At 0835Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 5000 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 6300 ft with a temperature of 11 C.

Good confidence in TAFs for KPRB, KSBP, KSBA, KCMA, KPMD and KWJF.

Moderate confidence in the remainder of the TAFs as VFR conds could come as early as 12Z depending on the strength of the Santa Ana winds.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Cigs will vary between 025 and 040. SCT conds could arrive as early as 14Z. There is a 30 percent chc of an 8 kt east wind component 11Z to 15Z.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. Cigs will vary between 025 and 040. SCT conds could arrive as early as 14Z.

MARINE
18/204 AM.

For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast.
Tonight through tonight, high confidence in combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas. For Tuesday through Friday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in current forecast. For this morning, high confidence in a combinations of SCA level winds and seas. From this afternoon through Friday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, high confidence in current forecast. Through Friday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect from 7 AM this morning to 3 PM PDT this afternoon for zone 88. (See LAXNPWLOX).
High Surf Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT this morning for zones 340-346-354. (See LAXCFWLOX).
Beach Hazards Statement in effect until 9 AM PDT this morning for zones 349-350-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
Wind Advisory remains in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for zones 375>380. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT this morning for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT early this morning for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).