Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Leland, NC

UPDATE
No changes to the forecast with the early evening update.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Analyzed surface trough currently over the western Carolinas will move through the area overnight leading to a surge of winds and act as the leading edge of stronger cold air advection.
While not technically defined as a cold front, it will act as the leading edge of a deep, well-defined, cold air mass beneath a deepening positively- tilted trough. Mixing and neutral advection this evening will hold temperatures in the 50s for much of the night. Late cold air advection will bring temperatures into the upper 40s inland to around 50 along the coast near sunrise.

Late tonight and into tomorrow morning, showers along the leading edge of this trough will form into a broken line across the Carolinas, progressing west to east behind the so-called cold front. Moisture will be limited, but included a 30% PoP given the strong lift aloft. Shallow cloud depths are unlikely to produce meaningful QPF, but a few hundredths are not out of the question along the I-95 corridor where the line will be more uniform. Surface propagation of the line of showers will out- pace the lift aloft and drier air will diminish some of the already limited moisture; meaning showers will weaken as they approach the coast. Best chance of a shower and measurable precip is along the I-95 corridor in NC/SC and west of US-701 in southeastern NC; a few light showers could persist into Wednesday morning along the coast north of Little River Inlet where some additional moisture exists.

Cold air advection continues during the morning and afternoon hours with sunshine to the south and the potential for prolonged cloud cover to the north (everywhere should be sunny by early or mid afternoon). Temperatures in the upper 50s to near 60 are expected. Outlier solutions in southeastern NC indicate that clouds associated with a low pressure system developing offshore could persist into the afternoon and high temperatures may be limited to the mid 50s over this small area near US-17 in eastern NC.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Deep mid-upper cold core low will be over eastern NC Wednesday night into early Thursday, with attending surface low just to the east offshore. Any moisture associated with the system is expected to be well northeast of our area Wednesday night and therefore have clear skies and no pops, with just slim chance of a few sprinkles across Pender early in the night. Cold air filters into the area Wednesday night as 850 temps drop below 0C - low temps by Thursday morning between 38F and 40F. Lingering wind will limit radiational cooling and frost chances, but sheltered, traditionally cold spots may drop into the low to mid 30s.

Clear and cool Thursday with highs in the low 60s, still well below normal for mid-October (more typical of late Nov-early Dec). Thursday night looks to be the coldest night of the season thus far with ideal radiational cooling conditions. Current forecast has upper 30s for most of the forecast area by Friday morning, with mid 30s in far northern Bladen and Pender counties where patchy frost has been added.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Deep ridge remains in place over the eastern U.S. from Friday into early next week. High and dry forecast for our area, with persistent north-northeasterly winds. Warming trend kicks off end of the week, with well below normal temps Friday increasing to near/slightly above normal Monday and Tuesday of next week.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR conditions through the valid 06Z issuance period. Upper trof axis to reach the FA latter this morning and off the coast by sunset. The northern portions of this trof will close off after moving out into the Atlantic off VA-NC border by daybreak Thu.
Impulses within this trof and rotating into the closed low will work with avbl moisture to produce mid level cloud decks and occasionally dropping to stratocu decks at 4k ft, mainly across the NC terminals this morning. Threat for light rain dropping out of the stratocu is too low to include in the TAFs but enough to mention here. The Sfc trof has pushed across the area with the sfc pg tightening in its wake. Looking at northerly winds 5 to 10 kt increasing 10-15 kt g20 kt after daybreak and continuing thru 22Z. NNW-N winds will drop back to around 5 kt after sunset.

Extended Outlook...VFR under high pressure through the weekend, with exception of possible low stratus Saturday night/Sunday morning.

MARINE
Through Tomorrow...An initial surface trough will move offshore tonight with a surge of strong offshore winds and gusts exceeding 25 knots. SCA conditions will have the highest confidence during this initial period with some uncertainty thereafter as the cold front and associated advection moves through in several pieces. SCA gusts are expected to be maintained as the cold front pushes offshore early Wednesday and cold air advection peaks before noon. A brief lull in the gradient will bring gusts to 20-25 knots during the afternoon and conditions will be below SCA thresholds for a short time.
However, another shortwave following the upper low will bring a surge of winds and gusts during the early evening Thursday.
Marginal SCA gusts associated with this shortwave and additional CAA could persist into late Wednesday night. Waves will be dominated by short period wind waves, peaking around 3-4 feet late Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday evening.

Wednesday Night through Saturday...Gusty northerly winds Wednesday night will be decreasing by Thursday morning as surface low off the NE NC coast moves further away and high pressure builds over the eastern U.S. North-northeast winds prevail across the local waters through the forecast period courtesy of large inland ridge, sustained around 15 kts and gusts to 20 kt each day into the weekend. Seas linger in the 2-4 ft range Wednesday night through Saturday, primarily as NNE wind wave with a ENE swell entering the waters late Friday into Saturday courtesy of exiting low.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Wednesday to 8 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ250-252-254-256.