Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Rest Haven, GA

SHORT TERM
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 208 AM EDT Wed May 14 2025

Key Messages:

- Isolated severe storms could produce large hail in northeast Georgia this afternoon.

- Dry weather and warming temperatures are expected in Georgia on Thursday.

Today through Thursday:

A weak shortwave moving through the region should support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms this morning in north Georgia.
Limited instability for this feature to work with suggests that stronger storms are improbable this morning. As we move into the afternoon diurnal heating and a building upper level ridge will battle for control over convection. Rising temperatures and surface dewpoints in the mid 60s should combine to to generate 1000-2000 J/kg of SBCAPE by around 2 PM greatly improving the amount of potential instability. The building upper level ridge will counter this by increasing subsidence above 700 mb and a generating a warm layer near 700 mb that should hinder storm formation. This process will be most pronounced in western Georgia. Combined these factors suggest that northeast Georgia has the best potential for thunderstorms this afternoon. A couple of those storms could be severe given that the CAM guidance is progging supercell composite indices between 5 and 15, and mid level lapse rates of 6.5 and 7.5 C/km. Severe weather is most likely between 3 PM and 7 PM, with the primary hazard being hail to the size of quarters. A limited potential exists for a storm to produce ping pong ball or larger hail if conditions come together just right. Damaging wind gusts in the 40 to 60 mph range could also occur. The overall coverage of severe weather should be limited, potentially restricted to just 1 or 2 storms. Note that the SPC has upgraded northeast Georgia to a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather today, with hail being the focus.

Thunderstorms chances should fall off rapidly with the loss of diurnal heating these evening. Low cloud cover should return from the southwest overnight. Across central Georgia a few patches of fog could develop. The odds of a Dense Fog Advisory are very low (<10%).

Upper level ridging will assert firm control of the weather in Georgia on Thursday. This will lead to warming temperatures and dry weather. Be prepared for those fair weather cumulus in the afternoon. Widespread high temperatures in the 86 to 91 degree range are expected (4 to 9 degrees above average for mid May).

Albright

LONG TERM
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 208 AM EDT Wed May 14 2025

Key Messages:

- Afternoon highs likely to be above average through the period

- Chances for thunderstorms (some strong to severe) each afternoon through early next week

The long term forecast picks up on Friday morning with quasi-zonal flow at the mid-levels and the western fringes of a broad surface high overspreading much of the Southeast. Our sensible weather late week and beyond will be governed by a combination of several shortwaves traversing the benign mid-level flow, and a frontal boundary approaching from the northwest beginning early Friday.
Global model guidance suggests the potential for the aforementioned front to stall out across the midsection of the state, which, in concert with any reinforcing mid-level perturbations, will serve to support the development of convection each afternoon. Beginning late Friday, a mid-level closed low will nudge nearly due eastward across the Great Lakes toward New England. As it does so, a core of enhanced flow rounding the base of the broader trough will support a surge in bulk shear for the northern half of the forecast area (on the order of 40-60kts per ensembles). Expect strong, unidirectional shear profiles to linger until the closed low begins to exit the Eastern Seaboard Monday into Tuesday, which combined with instability on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg, may allow for upscale growth of any patchy convection into a more organized complex of storms. Both GFS and Euro guidance show signals that suggest multiple waves of semi-organized thunderstorms are possible Friday through Monday. No areas are currently formally outlooked by SPC, but strong to marginally severe storms seem most probable early Saturday into Sunday when frontal forcing is most potent. Our primary concern within any lines of thunderstorms will be the potential for isolated damaging wind gusts embedded within the strongest segments of the line.

Thanks to a conveyor belt of warm, moist, southwesterly fetch off of the Gulf at the surface, temperatures will soar through the extended. Highs are likely to top out in the mid-80s to mid-90s each day (aside from the terrain of northeast Georgia, which is progged to remain in the mid-70s to lower-80s), as much as 8-12 degrees above average. Will need to keep an eye on the impacts of convective coverage on temperatures on Friday and Saturday, as Atlanta may approach record highs both days. Expect lows in the lower 60s to lower 70s each night.

96

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 AM EDT Wed May 14 2025

A mix of LIFR, IFR and MVFR conditions (ceilings 300-3000 ft AGL)
will continue in north Georgia through 14Z today. Then ceilings should rapidly improve towards VFR (3000-5000 ft AGL). Scattered thunderstorms will decrease in coverage through 14Z, then isolated storms are possible between 16Z today and 00Z Thursday. AHN has the best chance of a storm this afternoon. Winds will be from the southwest (200-260 degrees) through 18Z Thursday. A mix of IFR and MVFR ceilings may return to west Georgia after 06Z Thursday.

//ATL Confidence
12Z Update
Moderate confidence in dry weather through 18Z Thursday.
High confidence in the wind forecast.
Low confidence in the return of ceilings in the 800-1800 ft AGL range after 09Z Thursday.

Albright

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Athens 81 64 86 68 / 30 10 0 0 Atlanta 84 65 87 69 / 20 10 0 0 Blairsville 77 59 83 64 / 30 20 0 0 Cartersville 84 63 88 67 / 20 10 0 0 Columbus 87 65 90 68 / 10 0 0 0 Gainesville 81 64 85 69 / 30 10 0 0 Macon 86 64 89 68 / 10 10 0 0 Rome 84 63 86 68 / 20 10 0 0 Peachtree City 85 63 88 67 / 10 10 0 0 Vidalia 86 66 91 69 / 10 10 0 0

FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.